Saudi Arabia - First DivisionUpdated ang data noong September 12, 2026

Al Raed vs Al Orubah: mga stats ng match

Al Raed crest
Al Raed
0 : 1half-time 0:0
Al Orubah crest
Al Orubah

Al Raed vs Al Orubah: form, goals at mahahalagang stats

Mahahalagang detalye ng match

Naglaro ang Al Raed laban sa Al Orubah sa First Division (Saudi Arabia). Nilaro ang match noong 15 April 2026. Final score: 0:1.

Current na form

Al Raed: 3-1-1 sa last five matches at 2.00 points per match. Al Orubah: 2-0-3 at 1.20 points per match.

Stats ng goals

Al Raed ay may 1.86 goals na na-score at 1.32 na na-concede bawat match. Ang Al Orubah naman ay may 1.57 na na-score at 1.25 na na-concede. Average ng liga: 2.93 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Al Raed 64%, Al Orubah 61%. Over 2.5: Al Raed 54%, Al Orubah 68%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 60%.

xG, shots at style ng laro

Al Raed ang may mas mataas na xG per match: 1.62 vs 1.33. May average na 13.3 shots bawat match ang Al Raed, habang 10.9 naman ang Al Orubah.

First at second half

Nangunguna ang Al Raed sa half-time sa 39% ng matches at nakaka-score ng 1.11 goals pagkatapos ng break. Para sa Al Orubah, 39% at 1.00 ang mga value.

Goals ayon sa minuto

Al Raed: 76-90+ (16 goals). Al Orubah: 76-90+ (12 goals). Historical goal distribution ito, hindi prediction ng exact goal minute.

Context ng liga

First Division: 2.93 goals per match, BTTS 62% at Over 2.5 60%.

Head-to-head record

Bago ang match na ito, may 1 previous head-to-head matches sa database. Ang record ay 0-1-0, average goals 0.00, at BTTS 0%.

Archived na pre-match analysis

Ginawa ang analysis na ito bago ang kick-off. Ang conclusions ay base lang sa data na available bago ang match at hindi kasama ang final result o post-match statistics.

General match analysis

Al Raed has a clear statistical edge at home: average 2.21 goals scored and 13.21 shots per match with 5.21 shots on target and 54% possession, habang Al Orubah on the road posts 1.93 goals, 10.21 shots at 3.93 on target at 47% possession. Sa last 5 matches hosts are 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 8 goals and averaging 2.0 pts per game, habang visitors have 2 wins and 3 losses with 5 goals and 1.2 pts per game. Quality of chances din favors Al Raed: home xG is 1.57 per match vs 1.30 xG for Al Orubah away, at xG against lower (1.08 vs 1.23), meaning hosts create more high-value chances and allow fewer. Although Al Orubah have more wins this season (15 vs 12) and in the provided data a higher win rate away (64% vs 57% home wins for Al Raed), kanilang recent goal stats (conceding 1.36 on the road vs 1.21 at home) and higher share of matches without scoring (14% vs 7%) reduce the visitors' edge. Based on superiority in shots (13.21 vs 10.21), xG (1.57 vs 1.30) and form in last 5 (2.0 vs 1.2 pts), bet ko ang victory ng Al Raed.

Tingnan ang statistical overview

Ayon sa half

0 : 0
1st half
0 : 1
2nd half

Stats ng match

54Possession (%)46
Al RaedAl Orubah
17Shots8
Al RaedAl Orubah
4Shots on target2
Al RaedAl Orubah
1.97xG0.91
Al RaedAl Orubah
8Corners1
Al RaedAl Orubah
86Dangerous attacks37
Al RaedAl Orubah
7Fouls12
Al RaedAl Orubah
2Cards3
Al RaedAl Orubah

Pre-match na profile— ano ang sinasabi ng season numbers?

Team profile ito batay sa season data at form. Lalabas lang ang match-flow statistics kapag tapos na ang fixture.

1.61Points bawat matchPPG - points per match.1.79
Al RaedAl Orubah
1.86Goals na na-score / match1.57
Al RaedAl Orubah
1.32Goals na na-concede / match1.25
Al RaedAl Orubah
1.62xG forxG - expected goals o quality ng scoring chances.1.33
Al RaedAl Orubah
54%Average na possession51%
Al RaedAl Orubah
5.07Shots on target bawat match3.79
Al RaedAl Orubah
29%Clean sheetsClean sheet - match na walang conceded goal.21%
Al RaedAl Orubah
64%Parehong teams naka-scoreBTTS - percentage ng matches kung saan naka-score ang parehong teams.61%
Al RaedAl Orubah

Stats ng teams— alin ang mas efficient na team?

Comparison ng attack at defence ng dalawang teams sa current season.

13.29Shots bawat match10.93
Al RaedAl Orubah
5.07Shots on target3.79
Al RaedAl Orubah
14%Shot conversion14.4%
Al RaedAl Orubah
54%Possession51%
Al RaedAl Orubah
1.62xG for1.33
Al RaedAl Orubah
1.14xG against1.1
Al RaedAl Orubah

Quality ng shooting

Al Raed: Efficient ang finishingAl Orubah: Efficient ang finishing
Al RaedAl Orubah
Accuracy ng shots on target38%35%
Quality ng chances (xG bawat shot)0.120.12
Finishing (goals bawat shot on target)0.370.41

Kapag nasa 0.08 ang xG per shot, kadalasan long-range attempts iyon; ang 0.15+ ay karaniwang chances sa box. Galing sa possession, shot volume at conversion ang style label.

* Ipinapakita ng xG (expected goals) kung ilang goals ang inaasahang makuha ng team mula sa chances nito. Kapag mas mataas ang actual goals kaysa xG, above average ang finishing; kapag mas mababa, may missed chances.

Form ng teams— alin ang mas maganda ang current form?

Last five matches at season record, overall at may home-away split.

Al Raed ang 67% better sa: form sa last 5 matches.

2 pts / match - Al Raed · 1.2 pts / match - Al Orubah

Al Raed
WLWDW
Result split ngayong season
43% W32% D25% L
Season record (W-D-L)
12-9-7
1.61 pts / match · goal difference +15
Last 5 (W-D-L)
3-1-1
2.00 pts / match
Record ng team sa home (W-D-L)
8-4-2
Last 5 sa home
4-1-0
WDWWW
Averages sa last 5 matches
Goals na na-score: 1.6Goals na na-concede: 0.8xG: 1.58Opponent xG: 1.04BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 40%
Al Orubah
LLWWL
Result split ngayong season
54% W18% D29% L
Season record (W-D-L)
15-5-8
1.79 pts / match · goal difference +9
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-0-3
1.20 pts / match
Record ng team sa away (W-D-L)
9-2-3
Last 5 sa away
3-0-2
WWLLW
Averages sa last 5 matches
Goals na na-score: 1.0Goals na na-concede: 1.2xG: 1.54Opponent xG: 1.26BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 40%

Goals— paano nag-i-score at nagko-concede ang dalawang teams?

Ilang goals ang sini-score at kino-concede ng dalawang teams, pati kung gaano kadalas silang mag-clean sheet o hindi maka-score.

Al Raed ang 18% better sa: goals scored per match.

1.86 goals / match - Al Raed · 1.57 goals / match - Al Orubah

Al Orubah ang 6% better sa: goals conceded per match.

1.32 goals / match - Al Raed · 1.25 goals / match - Al Orubah

Scoring profile ng Al Raed: napakalakas

Nakaka-score ang Al Raed sa 86% ng matches (24 sa 28 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Al Orubah sa 21% (6 sa 28 matches).

Scoring profile ng Al Orubah: napakalakas

Nakaka-score ang Al Orubah sa 75% ng matches (21 sa 28 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Al Raed sa 29% (8 sa 28 matches).

52Goals na na-score (season)44
Al RaedAl Orubah
37Goals na na-concede (season)35
Al RaedAl Orubah
3.18Average ng goals sa match2.82
Al RaedAl Orubah
8Goals na na-score (last 5)5
Al RaedAl Orubah
4Goals na na-concede (last 5)6
Al RaedAl Orubah
Al Raed
29%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - match na walang conceded goal.8 sa 28 matches
14%
No goalFailed to score - match kung saan hindi naka-score ang team.4 sa 28 matches
Al Orubah
21%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - match na walang conceded goal.6 sa 28 matches
25%
No goalFailed to score - match kung saan hindi naka-score ang team.7 sa 28 matches

Gaano kadalas silang maka-score ng hindi bababa sa...

86%1 goal75%
Al RaedAl Orubah
54%2 goals54%
Al RaedAl Orubah
25%3 goals25%
Al RaedAl Orubah
14%4 goals4%
Al RaedAl Orubah

Gaano kadalas silang mag-concede ng hindi bababa sa...

71%1 goal79%
Al RaedAl Orubah
36%2 goals32%
Al RaedAl Orubah
14%3 goals14%
Al RaedAl Orubah
7%4 goals0%
Al RaedAl Orubah

* Kasama sa statistics ang home at away matches ng dalawang teams sa current season.

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)— gaano kadalas nakaka-score ang parehong teams?

Gaano kadalas may goals ang magkabilang panig sa matches ng teams, kumpara sa league average.

64%
Al Raed - BTTSBTTS - percentage ng matches kung saan naka-score ang parehong teams.18 sa 28 matches
61%
Al Orubah - BTTSBTTS - percentage ng matches kung saan naka-score ang parehong teams.17 sa 28 matches
62%
Average ng liga

Mga pattern ng goal

18%BTTS sa half-time11%
Al RaedAl Orubah
7%BTTS sa parehong halves0%
Al RaedAl Orubah
32%Naka-score sa parehong halves32%
Al RaedAl Orubah

BTTS at goal count

50%Min. 3 goals at BTTS61%
Al RaedAl Orubah
4%Min. 3 goals na walang BTTS7%
Al RaedAl Orubah
40%BTTS - last 540%
Al RaedAl Orubah

Mga goal line (Over/Under)— gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal lines ang kanilang matches?

Gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal thresholds ang matches ng teams, sa full match at bawat half.

Buong match - comparison ng teams (Over)

93%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)Over 0.5 - may hindi bababa sa isang goal sa match.93%
Al RaedAl Orubah
79%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)Over 1.5 - may hindi bababa sa dalawang goals sa match.68%
Al RaedAl Orubah
54%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)Over 2.5 - may hindi bababa sa tatlong goals sa match.68%
Al RaedAl Orubah
36%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)Over 3.5 - may hindi bababa sa apat na goals sa match.36%
Al RaedAl Orubah
21%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)Over 4.5 - may hindi bababa sa limang goals sa match.14%
Al RaedAl Orubah

Over / Under - Al Raed

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - may hindi bababa sa isang goal sa match.
Over 93%Under 7%
Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - may hindi bababa sa dalawang goals sa match.
Over 79%Under 21%
Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - may hindi bababa sa tatlong goals sa match.
Over 54%Under 46%
Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - may hindi bababa sa apat na goals sa match.
Over 36%Under 64%
Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - may hindi bababa sa limang goals sa match.
Over 21%Under 79%

Over / Under - Al Orubah

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - may hindi bababa sa isang goal sa match.
Over 93%Under 7%
Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - may hindi bababa sa dalawang goals sa match.
Over 68%Under 32%
Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - may hindi bababa sa tatlong goals sa match.
Over 68%Under 32%
Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - may hindi bababa sa apat na goals sa match.
Over 36%Under 64%
Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - may hindi bababa sa limang goals sa match.
Over 14%Under 86%

1st half

82%Min. 1 goal bago ang half-time68%
Al RaedAl Orubah
39%Min. 2 goals bago ang half-time21%
Al RaedAl Orubah
11%Min. 3 goals bago ang half-time7%
Al RaedAl Orubah

2nd half

79%Min. 1 goal pagkatapos ng half-time89%
Al RaedAl Orubah
50%Min. 2 goals pagkatapos ng half-time57%
Al RaedAl Orubah
25%Min. 3 goals pagkatapos ng half-time25%
Al RaedAl Orubah

Mga half ng match— saang half mas madalas silang maka-score?

Paano nahahati sa first at second half ang performance: goals, points, clean sheets at state sa half-time.

Al Orubah ang 5% better sa: form sa first half (half-time points).

1.46 pts / match - Al Raed · 1.54 pts / match - Al Orubah

Al Raed - state sa half-time
39% nangunguna29% tabla32% nahuhuli
Al Orubah - state sa half-time
39% nangunguna36% tabla25% nahuhuli

Bago ang half-time (1st half)

1.46Points bawat match (1st half)1.54
Al RaedAl Orubah
0.75Goals na na-score (1st half)0.57
Al RaedAl Orubah
0.68Goals na na-concede (1st half)0.39
Al RaedAl Orubah
1.43Average ng goals (1st half)0.96
Al RaedAl Orubah
54%Clean sheet bago ang half-time64%
Al RaedAl Orubah
46%Walang goal bago ang half-time57%
Al RaedAl Orubah

Pagkatapos ng half-time (2nd half)

1.68Points bawat match (2nd half)1.43
Al RaedAl Orubah
1.11Goals na na-score (2nd half)1
Al RaedAl Orubah
0.64Goals na na-concede (2nd half)0.86
Al RaedAl Orubah
1.75Average ng goals (2nd half)1.86
Al RaedAl Orubah
57%Clean sheet pagkatapos ng half-time39%
Al RaedAl Orubah
36%Walang goal pagkatapos ng half-time36%
Al RaedAl Orubah

Al Raed - mga result sa second half

46% W29% D25% L
41
Half-time points
21
Half-time goals
+2
Goal difference sa 1st half
47
Second-half points
+13
Goal difference sa 2nd half
1.46
PPG bago ang half-time
Lead holding110%

Leading sa half-time sa 39% ng matches at nananalo sa 43%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time-0.0

Stable ang defence sa buong match.

Al Orubah - mga result sa second half

39% W25% D36% L
43
Half-time points
16
Half-time goals
+5
Goal difference sa 1st half
40
Second-half points
+4
Goal difference sa 2nd half
1.54
PPG bago ang half-time
Lead holding138%

Leading sa half-time sa 39% ng matches at nananalo sa 54%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.5

Nagko-concede ng 0.5 more goals per match pagkatapos ng half-time - bumababa ang defensive level sa second half.

Al Raed - last 5 matches per half
1st half2nd half
Points bawat match1.601.60
Goals na na-score / match0.61.0
Goals na na-concede / match0.40.4
Average ng goals sa match1.01.4
1 goal80%60%
2 goals20%60%
3 goals0%20%
Clean sheet60%80%
No goal40%40%
Goal difference+1+3
Half-time: 40% nangunguna - 40% tabla - 20% nahuhuli
2nd half: 40% panalo - 40% tabla - 20% talo
BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 20% - Total goals sa half-time: 3
Al Orubah - last 5 matches per half
1st half2nd half
Points bawat match1.201.20
Goals na na-score / match0.20.8
Goals na na-concede / match0.21.0
Average ng goals sa match0.41.8
1 goal40%100%
2 goals0%40%
3 goals0%40%
Clean sheet80%20%
No goal80%40%
Goal difference0-1
Half-time: 20% nangunguna - 60% tabla - 20% nahuhuli
2nd half: 40% panalo - 0% tabla - 60% talo
BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 0% - Total goals sa half-time: 1

* Ipinapakita ng colors sa tables ang event frequency: green ay common, yellow ay moderate, red ay rare. Frequency ito, hindi team rating.

Goals ayon sa minuto— kailan dumarating ang goals?

Mga phase ng match kung kailan pinakamadalas maka-score at mag-concede ang dalawang teams.

Al Raed
Na-scoreNa-concede
5
3
0-15
6
6
16-30
10
10
31-45
6
5
46-60
9
5
61-75
16
8
76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 76-90 (16 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 31-45 (10). Balance ng late goals (76-90): +8 - malakas sa late phases.

Al Orubah
Na-scoreNa-concede
6
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
7
8
31-45
9
6
46-60
7
10
61-75
12
8
76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 61-75 (10). Balance ng late goals (76-90): +4 - malakas sa late phases.

* Kasama sa buckets na 31-45 at 76-90 ang added-time goals.

Karagdagang team indicators— ano ang ipinapakita ng xG, efficiency at form?

Comparison ng chance quality, results at trends mula sa completed matches ngayong season.

Profile ng match

3.00
Estimated na goals
attack laban sa opponent defence
1.6 : 1.4
Estimated na hati ng goals
home : away
102%
Pace kumpara sa liga
100% = average ng liga
63%
Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)
average mula sa seasons ng dalawang teams
-100%
Derby effect
H2H goals kumpara sa typical matches
65%
BTTS estimate
mula sa scoring frequency ng dalawang teams
4%
0:0 risk
mga 1 sa bawat 25 matches
0-1
Pinakakaraniwang goal range
attack vs defence sa magkabilang panig

Al Raed

Net xG balance
Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.
+0.48
Results kumpara sa xG
Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.
+0.06
Points kumpara sa goal balance
Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.
-10.8 pts
Efficiency ng finishing
Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.
+0.24
Efficiency ng defence
Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.
-0.18
Attack vs league
Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.
119%
Defence vs league
Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.
96%
Trend ng form
Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.
+0.39
Mas malakas sa second half?
Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.
+0.4
Mga late goal
31% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 10% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.
31%

Al Orubah

Net xG balance
Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.
+0.23
Results kumpara sa xG
Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.
+0.09
Points kumpara sa goal balance
Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.
-1.4 pts
Efficiency ng finishing
Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.
+0.24
Efficiency ng defence
Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.
-0.15
Attack vs league
Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.
114%
Defence vs league
Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.
80%
Trend ng form
Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.
-0.59
Mas malakas sa second half?
Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.
+0.4
Mga late goal
27% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 14% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.
27%

* Ang estimated goals, goal split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk at goal range ay galing sa public season averages at frequencies ng dalawang teams. Statistical match profile ito, hindi private model prediction o betting pick. Ang iba pang indicators ay naglalarawan ng completed matches sa season.

Context ng liga— mataas ba ang scoring sa league na ito?

Paano nagko-compare ang dalawang teams sa league-wide averages ng First Division.

Teams kumpara sa liga

Al RaedLigaAl Orubah
Average ng goals sa match▲ 3.182.93▼ 2.82
Parehong teams naka-score▲ 64%62%• 61%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▼ 54%60%▲ 68%
Clean sheets▲ 29%22%• 21%
Goal bago ang half-time▲ 82%76%▼ 68%
Goal pagkatapos ng half-time▼ 79%84%▲ 89%

^ green = mas mataas sa league average, ˇ red = mas mababa sa league average. Direction ng gap ang ipinapakita nito, hindi team rating.

2.93
Average goals bawat match
62%
Parehong teams naka-score
60%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
22%
Clean sheets
1.56
Home goals bawat match
1.38
Away goals bawat match
+13%
Advantage ng home attack
+12%
Advantage ng home defence
+7%
Kabuuang home advantage
Goals sa 1st half (buong liga)
76%
1 goal
37%
2 goals
14%
3 goals
3%
4 goals
Goals sa 2nd half (buong liga)
84%
1 goal
48%
2 goals
22%
3 goals
7%
4 goals

Lineups at player events

Verified starters, substitutes at recorded events para sa match.

Home team

Away team

Timeline ng match

Mga goal, card at substitution ayon sa pagkakasunod ng oras.

  1. Al OrubahYellow cardAnass Najah
  2. Al RaedYellow cardSalomon Medaase Tweh
  3. Al RaedSubstitutionPumasok: Omar Ahmed ShamiLumabas: Salomon Medaase Tweh
  4. Al RaedYellow cardMohammed Al Doseri
  5. Al OrubahSubstitutionPumasok: Fahad MuneefLumabas: Ali Abdullah Al-Sultan
  6. Al OrubahYellow cardFawaz Mohammed Rabie
  7. Al RaedSubstitutionPumasok: Walead Al-shangeatiLumabas: Omar Ahmed Shami
  8. Al OrubahYellow cardAhmed Abdullah Al-Juwaid
  9. Al RaedSubstitutionPumasok: Musleh Salah Musleh Al ShaikhLumabas: Saad Alselouli
  10. Al OrubahGoalDarwin Jesús González MendozaAssist: Anass Najah

Referee at coaches

Buksan ang season profiles para makita ang match record, goals at discipline trends.

Home coachNacif BeyaouiAway coachSlavche Vojneski

Head-to-head

Nakaraang meeting: Al Raed 0 - 1 - 0 Al Orubah. Average ng goals 0.00, both teams scored sa 0% matches.

Al Orubah
0 : 0
Al Raed

Mga madalas itanong

Ano ang result ng Al Raed vs Al Orubah?

Natapos ang First Division match sa score na Al Raed 0:1 Al Orubah. Nasa page na ito ang match statistics, half-by-half data at head-to-head record.

Ano ang ipinapakita ng goal statistics bago ang Al Raed vs Al Orubah?

Al Raed scores 1.86 goals per match at Al Orubah 1.57. Ang First Division average ay 2.93 goals, may Over 2.5 sa 60% ng matches. BTTS: Al Raed 64%, Al Orubah 61%.

Ano ang current form ng Al Raed at Al Orubah?

Sa last 5 matches, ang Al Raed ay 3-1-1 (2.00 points per match), habang ang Al Orubah ay 2-0-3 (1.20 points per match).

Saan makikita ang betting pick at full analysis ng Al Raed vs Al Orubah?

Nasa page na ito ang statistical context: form, H2H, goals, BTTS at Over/Under. Makikita sa NoFluffPicks app ang betting pick, value bet at full reasoning.