Uzbekistan - Uzbekistan Super League04/28/2026, 02:00 PMUpdated ang data noong September 07, 2026

Andijan vs Dinamo Samarqand: mga stats ng match

2 : 1half-time 0:0

Andijan vs Dinamo Samarqand: form, goals at mahahalagang stats

Mahahalagang detalye ng match

Naglaro ang Andijan laban sa Dinamo Samarqand sa Uzbekistan Super League (Uzbekistan). Nilaro ang match noong 28 April 2026. Final score: 2:1.

Current na form

Andijan: 1-1-3 sa last five matches at 0.80 points per match. Dinamo Samarqand: 1-1-3 at 0.80 points per match.

Stats ng goals

Andijan ay may 1.22 goals na na-score at 1.11 na na-concede bawat match. Ang Dinamo Samarqand naman ay may 1.44 na na-score at 2.00 na na-concede. Average ng liga: 2.54 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Andijan 33%, Dinamo Samarqand 100%. Over 2.5: Andijan 56%, Dinamo Samarqand 89%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 50%.

xG, shots at style ng laro

Andijan ang may mas mataas na xG per match: 1.48 vs 1.46. May average na 11.6 shots bawat match ang Andijan, habang 11.7 naman ang Dinamo Samarqand.

First at second half

Nangunguna ang Andijan sa half-time sa 33% ng matches at nakaka-score ng 0.78 goals pagkatapos ng break. Para sa Dinamo Samarqand, 44% at 0.44 ang mga value.

Goals ayon sa minuto

Andijan: 76-90+ (4 goals). Dinamo Samarqand: 0-15 (4 goals). Historical goal distribution ito, hindi prediction ng exact goal minute.

Context ng liga

Uzbekistan Super League: 2.54 goals per match, BTTS 53% at Over 2.5 50%.

Head-to-head record

Bago ang match na ito, may 2 previous head-to-head matches sa database. Ang record ay 0-0-2, average goals 2.50, at BTTS 50%.

Archived na pre-match analysis

Ginawa ang analysis na ito bago ang kick-off. Ang conclusions ay base lang sa data na available bago ang match at hindi kasama ang final result o post-match statistics.

General match analysis

Andijan ang favorite: sa home mean nila 1.75 goals scored at 0.75 conceded per match, habang Dinamo Samarqand sa away averages 1.5 goals scored at 2.5 conceded. Home team nagko-create ng average 13.25 shots with 5.5 on target at conversion 13%, resulting sa xG 1.66 at xG against 1.02; visitors may have 12.5 shots, 4.75 on target, 12% conversion at xG 1.61 with xG against 1.32. Defense ng home ang key — Andijan may 50% clean sheets at 50% wins sa home matches, samantalang Dinamo has 0% clean sheets away at kumukuha ng 75% losses sa away fixtures. Parehong teams similar ang points form (0.8 points per match in last 5, each with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses), kaya ang deciding factors are mga details tulad ng lower goals conceded ng hosts (0.75 vs 2.5). Based on ito, tip ko Andijan, estimating home win probability 60%, draw 20% at away win 20%.

Tingnan ang statistical overview

Ayon sa half

0 : 0

1st half

2 : 1

2nd half

Stats ng match

59Possession (%)41

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

12Shots6

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

4Shots on target5

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

1.55xG1.1

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

6Corners3

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

71Dangerous attacks51

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

10Fouls17

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

2Cards5

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

Pre-match na profile— ano ang sinasabi ng season numbers?

Team profile ito batay sa season data at form. Lalabas lang ang match-flow statistics kapag tapos na ang fixture.

1.11Points bawat match0.89

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

1.22Goals na na-score / match1.44

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

1.11Goals na na-concede / match2

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

1.48xG for1.46

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

48%Average na possession52%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

4.11Shots on target bawat match4.44

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

33%Clean sheets0%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

33%Parehong teams naka-score100%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

Stats ng teams— alin ang mas efficient na team?

Comparison ng attack at defence ng dalawang teams sa current season.

11.56Shots bawat match11.67

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

4.11Shots on target4.44

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

10.6%Shot conversion12.4%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

48%Possession52%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

1.48xG for1.46

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

1.13xG against1.43

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

Quality ng shooting

Andijan: Balanced ang styleDinamo Samarqand: Balanced ang style

	Andijan	Dinamo Samarqand
Accuracy ng shots on target	36%	38%
Quality ng chances (xG bawat shot)	0.13	0.13
Finishing (goals bawat shot on target)	0.30	0.32

Kapag nasa 0.08 ang xG per shot, kadalasan long-range attempts iyon; ang 0.15+ ay karaniwang chances sa box. Galing sa possession, shot volume at conversion ang style label.

* Ipinapakita ng xG (expected goals) kung ilang goals ang inaasahang makuha ng team mula sa chances nito. Kapag mas mataas ang actual goals kaysa xG, above average ang finishing; kapag mas mababa, may missed chances.

Form ng teams— alin ang mas maganda ang current form?

Last five matches at season record, overall at may home-away split.

Andijan

LLLDW

Result split ngayong season

33% W11% R56% P

Season record (W-D-L)

3-1-5

1.11 pts / match · goal difference +1

Last 5 (W-D-L)

1-1-3

0.80 pts / match

Record ng team sa home (W-D-L)

2-0-2

Last 5 sa home

2-0-2

WWLL

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 0.8Goals na na-concede: 1.0xG: 1.60Opponent xG: 1.23BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 40%

Dinamo Samarqand

LWLLD

Result split ngayong season

22% W22% R56% P

Season record (W-D-L)

2-2-5

0.89 pts / match · goal difference -5

Last 5 (W-D-L)

1-1-3

0.80 pts / match

Record ng team sa away (W-D-L)

1-0-3

Last 5 sa away

1-0-3

WLLL

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 1.6Goals na na-concede: 2.2xG: 1.47Opponent xG: 1.33BTTS: 100%Over 2.5: 100%

Goals— paano nag-i-score at nagko-concede ang dalawang teams?

Ilang goals ang sini-score at kino-concede ng dalawang teams, pati kung gaano kadalas silang mag-clean sheet o hindi maka-score.

Dinamo Samarqand ang 18% better sa: goals scored per match.

1.22 goals / match - Andijan · 1.44 goals / match - Dinamo Samarqand

Andijan ang 80% better sa: goals conceded per match.

1.11 goals / match - Andijan · 2 goals / match - Dinamo Samarqand

Scoring profile ng Andijan: napakalakas

Nakaka-score ang Andijan sa 56% ng matches (5 sa 9 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Dinamo Samarqand sa 0% (0 sa 9 matches).

Scoring profile ng Dinamo Samarqand: napakalakas

Nakaka-score ang Dinamo Samarqand sa 100% ng matches (9 sa 9 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Andijan sa 33% (3 sa 9 matches).

11Goals na na-score (season)13

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

10Goals na na-concede (season)18

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

2.33Average ng goals sa match3.44

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

4Goals na na-score (last 5)8

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

5Goals na na-concede (last 5)11

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

Andijan

33%

Clean sheets3 sa 9 matches

44%

No goal4 sa 9 matches

Dinamo Samarqand

Clean sheets0 sa 9 matches

No goal0 sa 9 matches

Gaano kadalas silang maka-score ng hindi bababa sa...

56%1 goal100%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

33%2 goals44%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

22%3 goals0%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

11%4 goals0%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

Gaano kadalas silang mag-concede ng hindi bababa sa...

67%1 goal100%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

33%2 goals67%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

11%3 goals22%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

0%4 goals11%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

* Kasama sa statistics ang home at away matches ng dalawang teams sa current season.

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)— gaano kadalas nakaka-score ang parehong teams?

Gaano kadalas may goals ang magkabilang panig sa matches ng teams, kumpara sa league average.

33%

Andijan - BTTS3 sa 9 matches

100%

Dinamo Samarqand - BTTS9 sa 9 matches

53%

Average ng liga

Mga pattern ng goal

0%BTTS sa half-time22%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

0%BTTS sa parehong halves0%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

33%Naka-score sa parehong halves0%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

BTTS at goal count

33%Min. 3 goals at BTTS89%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

22%Min. 3 goals na walang BTTS0%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

40%BTTS - last 5100%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

Mga goal line (Over/Under)— gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal lines ang kanilang matches?

Gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal thresholds ang matches ng teams, sa full match at bawat half.

Buong match - comparison ng teams (Over)

89%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)100%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

67%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)100%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

56%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)89%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

22%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)33%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

0%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)11%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

Over / Under - Andijan

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 89%Under 11%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 67%Under 33%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 56%Under 44%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 22%Under 78%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 0%Under 100%

Over / Under - Dinamo Samarqand

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 100%Under 0%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 100%Under 0%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 89%Under 11%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 33%Under 67%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 11%Under 89%

1st half

67%Min. 1 goal bago ang half-time89%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

22%Min. 2 goals bago ang half-time56%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

0%Min. 3 goals bago ang half-time22%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

2nd half

89%Min. 1 goal pagkatapos ng half-time89%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

44%Min. 2 goals pagkatapos ng half-time56%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

11%Min. 3 goals pagkatapos ng half-time22%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

Mga half ng match— saang half mas madalas silang maka-score?

Paano nahahati sa first at second half ang performance: goals, points, clean sheets at state sa half-time.

Dinamo Samarqand ang 17% better sa: form sa first half (half-time points).

1.33 pts / match - Andijan · 1.56 pts / match - Dinamo Samarqand

Andijan - state sa half-time

33% nangunguna33% tabla33% nahuhuli

Dinamo Samarqand - state sa half-time

44% nangunguna22% tabla33% nahuhuli

Bago ang half-time (1st half)

1.33Points bawat match (1st half)1.56

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

0.44Goals na na-score (1st half)1

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

0.44Goals na na-concede (1st half)0.78

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

0.89Average ng goals (1st half)1.78

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

67%Clean sheet bago ang half-time56%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

67%Walang goal bago ang half-time33%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

Pagkatapos ng half-time (2nd half)

1.56Points bawat match (2nd half)0.89

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

0.78Goals na na-score (2nd half)0.44

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

0.67Goals na na-concede (2nd half)1.22

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

1.44Average ng goals (2nd half)1.67

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

44%Clean sheet pagkatapos ng half-time22%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

44%Walang goal pagkatapos ng half-time67%

AndijanDinamo Samarqand

Andijan - mga result sa second half

44% W22% R33% P

Half-time points

Half-time goals

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

Goal difference sa 2nd half

1.33

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding100%

Leading sa half-time sa 33% ng matches at nananalo sa 33%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.2

Nagko-concede ng 0.2 more goals per match pagkatapos ng half-time - bumababa ang defensive level sa second half.

Dinamo Samarqand - mga result sa second half

22% W22% R56% P

Half-time points

Half-time goals

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

-7

Goal difference sa 2nd half

1.56

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding50%

Leading sa half-time sa 44% ng matches at nananalo sa 22%. Minsan nawawala ang lead pagkatapos ng half-time.

Defence after half-time+0.4

Nagko-concede ng 0.4 more goals per match pagkatapos ng half-time - bumababa ang defensive level sa second half.

Andijan - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	1.20	1.40
Goals na na-score / match	0.2	0.6
Goals na na-concede / match	0.4	0.6
Average ng goals sa match	0.6	1.2
1 goal	40%	80%
2 goals	20%	20%
3 goals	0%	20%
Clean sheet	80%	40%
No goal	80%	60%
Goal difference	-1	0

Half-time: 20% nangunguna - 60% tabla - 20% nahuhuli

2nd half: 40% panalo - 20% tabla - 40% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 0% - Total goals sa half-time: 1

Dinamo Samarqand - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	1.00	1.40
Goals na na-score / match	0.8	0.8
Goals na na-concede / match	1.0	1.2
Average ng goals sa match	1.8	2.0
1 goal	80%	100%
2 goals	60%	80%
3 goals	20%	20%
Clean sheet	40%	20%
No goal	60%	40%
Goal difference	-1	-2

Half-time: 20% nangunguna - 40% tabla - 40% nahuhuli

2nd half: 40% panalo - 20% tabla - 40% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 20% - Total goals sa half-time: 4

* Ipinapakita ng colors sa tables ang event frequency: green ay common, yellow ay moderate, red ay rare. Frequency ito, hindi team rating.

Goals ayon sa minuto— kailan dumarating ang goals?

Mga phase ng match kung kailan pinakamadalas maka-score at mag-concede ang dalawang teams.

Andijan

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 76-90 (4). Balance ng late goals (76-90): 0.

Dinamo Samarqand

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 46-60 (4). Balance ng late goals (76-90): -1 - mahina sa late phases.

* Kasama sa buckets na 31-45 at 76-90 ang added-time goals.

Karagdagang team indicators— ano ang ipinapakita ng xG, efficiency at form?

Comparison ng chance quality, results at trends mula sa completed matches ngayong season.

Profile ng match

2.88

Estimated na goals

attack laban sa opponent defence

1.6 : 1.3

Estimated na hati ng goals

home : away

114%

Pace kumpara sa liga

100% = average ng liga

67%

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)

average mula sa seasons ng dalawang teams

-13%

Derby effect

H2H goals kumpara sa typical matches

56%

BTTS estimate

mula sa scoring frequency ng dalawang teams

0:0 risk

halos zero

2-3

Pinakakaraniwang goal range

attack vs defence sa magkabilang panig

Andijan

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

+0.35

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

-0.24

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

-4.8 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

-0.26

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

+0.02

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

95%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

88%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

-0.31

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

+0.3

Mga late goal

36% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 18% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

36%

Dinamo Samarqand

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

+0.03

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

-0.59

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

-1.3 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

-0.02

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

-0.57

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

114%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

156%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

-0.09

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

-0.6

Mga late goal

15% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 31% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

15%

* Ang estimated goals, goal split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk at goal range ay galing sa public season averages at frequencies ng dalawang teams. Statistical match profile ito, hindi private model prediction o betting pick. Ang iba pang indicators ay naglalarawan ng completed matches sa season.

Context ng liga— mataas ba ang scoring sa league na ito?

Paano nagko-compare ang dalawang teams sa league-wide averages ng Uzbekistan Super League.

Teams kumpara sa liga

	Andijan	Liga	Dinamo Samarqand
Average ng goals sa match	▼ 2.33	2.54	▲ 3.44
Parehong teams naka-score	▼ 33%	53%	▲ 100%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)	▲ 56%	50%	▲ 89%
Clean sheets	▲ 33%	26%	▼ 0%
Goal bago ang half-time	• 67%	68%	▲ 89%
Goal pagkatapos ng half-time	▲ 89%	80%	▲ 89%

^ green = mas mataas sa league average, ˇ red = mas mababa sa league average. Direction ng gap ang ipinapakita nito, hindi team rating.

2.54

Average goals bawat match

53%

Parehong teams naka-score

50%

Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)

26%

Clean sheets

1.28

Home goals bawat match

1.26

Away goals bawat match

+2%

Advantage ng home attack

+2%

Advantage ng home defence

+-3%

Kabuuang home advantage

Goals sa 1st half (buong liga)

68%

1 goal

39%

2 goals

3 goals

4 goals

Goals sa 2nd half (buong liga)

80%

1 goal

41%

2 goals

14%

3 goals

4 goals

Lineups at player events

Verified starters, substitutes at recorded events para sa match.

Away team

Starting lineup

1Edem Nemanov🟨 1 5Mahamadou Dembele 7Sanjar Kodirkulovlumabas 84'8Azizbek Amonov🟨 1 10Anvarjon Hojimirzaev⚽ 1 · 🟨 2 15Rasul Yuldashevlumabas 75'20Jaloliddin Jumaboyev🟨 1 21Jakhongirbek Abdusalomovlumabas 75'37Firdavs Abdurahmonovlumabas 84'44Kingsley Sarfolumabas 84'

Substitutes

4Nurillo Tukhtasinovpumasok 75'13Ravshanbek Yagudinpumasok 1'

14Bakhodir Nasimovpumasok 1'

16Dramane Saloupumasok 75'22Ulugbek Abdullayevpumasok 1'31Salvador Sánchezpumasok 84'77Behruzbek Oblaqulovpumasok 84'97Til Mavreticpumasok 84'

Timeline ng match

Mga goal, card at substitution ayon sa pagkakasunod ng oras.

28'
Dinamo SamarqandYellow cardJaloliddin Jumaboyev
34'
AndijanYellow cardPo'latkhoja Kholdorkhonov
52'
Dinamo SamarqandGoalAnvarjon Hojimirzaev
73'
Dinamo SamarqandYellow cardAnvarjon Hojimirzaev
74'
Dinamo SamarqandYellow cardEdem Nemanov
74'
AndijanSubstitutionPumasok: Imeda AshortiaLumabas: Azizbek Turgunbayev
80'
AndijanGoalImeda Ashortia
81'
AndijanYellow cardImeda Ashortia
82'
AndijanGoalDamir TemirovAssist: Martin Boakye
90+3'
Dinamo SamarqandYellow cardAzizbek Amonov
90+5'
Dinamo SamarqandYellow cardAnvarjon Hojimirzaev

Referee at coaches

Buksan ang season profiles para makita ang match record, goals at discipline trends.

Home coachSamvel Babayan Away coachVadim Abramov

Head-to-head

Mga recent meeting (2): Andijan 0 - 0 - 2 Dinamo Samarqand. Average ng goals 2.50, both teams scored sa 50% matches.

PFK Dinamo Samarqand

2 : 011/15/2025

FK Andijan

1 : 204/20/2025

PFK Dinamo Samarqand

Mga madalas itanong

Ano ang result ng Andijan vs Dinamo Samarqand?

Natapos ang Uzbekistan Super League match sa score na Andijan 2:1 Dinamo Samarqand. Nasa page na ito ang match statistics, half-by-half data at head-to-head record.

Ano ang head-to-head record ng Andijan at Dinamo Samarqand?

Sa huling 2 head-to-head matches, nanalo ang Andijan ng 0, ang Dinamo Samarqand ng 2, at 0 ang draws. Average goals: 2.50; BTTS: 50%.

Ano ang ipinapakita ng goal statistics bago ang Andijan vs Dinamo Samarqand?

Andijan scores 1.22 goals per match at Dinamo Samarqand 1.44. Ang Uzbekistan Super League average ay 2.54 goals, may Over 2.5 sa 50% ng matches. BTTS: Andijan 33%, Dinamo Samarqand 100%.

Ano ang current form ng Andijan at Dinamo Samarqand?

Sa last 5 matches, ang Andijan ay 1-1-3 (0.80 points per match), habang ang Dinamo Samarqand ay 1-1-3 (0.80 points per match).

Saan makikita ang betting pick at full analysis ng Andijan vs Dinamo Samarqand?

Nasa page na ito ang statistical context: form, H2H, goals, BTTS at Over/Under. Makikita sa NoFluffPicks app ang betting pick, value bet at full reasoning.