Egypt - Second Division05/14/2026, 01:30 PMUpdated ang data noong September 13, 2026

Asyut Petroleum vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla: mga stats ng match

1 : 0half-time 1:0

Asyut Petroleum vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla: form, goals at mahahalagang stats

Mahahalagang detalye ng match

Naglaro ang Asyut Petroleum laban sa Baladiyyat Al Mehalla sa Second Division (Egypt). Nilaro ang match noong 14 May 2026. Final score: 1:0.

Current na form

Asyut Petroleum: 2-1-2 sa last five matches at 1.40 points per match. Baladiyyat Al Mehalla: 2-1-2 at 1.40 points per match.

Stats ng goals

Asyut Petroleum ay may 1.24 goals na na-score at 0.82 na na-concede bawat match. Ang Baladiyyat Al Mehalla naman ay may 1.03 na na-score at 1.12 na na-concede. Average ng liga: 1.95 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Asyut Petroleum 39%, Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 48%. Over 2.5: Asyut Petroleum 36%, Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 39%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 32%.

xG, shots at style ng laro

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla ang may mas mataas na xG per match: 1.28 vs 1.24. May average na 5.9 shots bawat match ang Asyut Petroleum, habang 8.3 naman ang Baladiyyat Al Mehalla.

First at second half

Nangunguna ang Asyut Petroleum sa half-time sa 27% ng matches at nakaka-score ng 0.52 goals pagkatapos ng break. Para sa Baladiyyat Al Mehalla, 30% at 0.61 ang mga value.

Goals ayon sa minuto

Asyut Petroleum: 0-15 (14 goals). Baladiyyat Al Mehalla: 31-45+ (9 goals). Historical goal distribution ito, hindi prediction ng exact goal minute.

Context ng liga

Second Division: 1.95 goals per match, BTTS 41% at Over 2.5 32%.

Head-to-head record

Bago ang match na ito, may 1 previous head-to-head matches sa database. Ang record ay 0-1-0, average goals 0.00, at BTTS 0%.

Archived na pre-match analysis

Ginawa ang analysis na ito bago ang kick-off. Ang conclusions ay base lang sa data na available bago ang match at hindi kasama ang final result o post-match statistics.

General match analysis

Asyut Petroleum ay nasa 2nd place sa table at may 41 goals this season at 50% home win rate, habang si Baladiyyat Al Mehalla ay 15th, may 34 goals at only 13% away win rate. Home side concedes average na 0.88 goals sa bahay, habang guests concede 1.5 goals sa away; clean sheets ng Asyut occur in 50% ng home matches vs only 6% para kay Baladiyyat. Asyut nagpaproduce ng mas maraming quality chances: home xG 1.46 with 4.57 on-target shots at 11.86 attempts per match, habang Baladiyyat has xG 1.28, 3.64 on-target shots at 9.79 attempts. Guests may have slightly higher conversion (mga ~9% vs 7% ng hosts) at sa last 5 matches nakapuntos sila ng 7 goals vs 6 ng Asyut, pero weaker away defense at low clean sheet rate (6%) limit their chances. Considering defensive edge at better chance quality ng hosts at superiority sa home win percentage (50% vs 13%), I predict a home win with estimated probabilities: 60% home win, 25% draw, 15% away win.

Tingnan ang statistical overview

Ayon sa half

1 : 0

1st half

0 : 0

2nd half

Stats ng match

50Possession (%)50

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

14Shots5

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

1Shots on target0

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

0xG0

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

-1Corners-1

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

0Dangerous attacks0

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

11Fouls6

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

0Cards0

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

Pre-match na profile— ano ang sinasabi ng season numbers?

Team profile ito batay sa season data at form. Lalabas lang ang match-flow statistics kapag tapos na ang fixture.

1.73Points bawat match0.97

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

1.24Goals na na-score / match1.03

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.82Goals na na-concede / match1.12

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

1.24xG for1.28

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

31%Average na possession44%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

2.3Shots on target bawat match2.88

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

45%Clean sheets27%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

39%Parehong teams naka-score48%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

Stats ng teams— alin ang mas efficient na team?

Comparison ng attack at defence ng dalawang teams sa current season.

5.91Shots bawat match8.33

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

2.3Shots on target2.88

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

21%Shot conversion12.4%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

31%Possession44%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

1.24xG for1.28

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

1.28xG against1.38

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

Quality ng shooting

Asyut Petroleum: Counter-attacking ang styleBaladiyyat Al Mehalla: Counter-attacking ang style

	Asyut Petroleum	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
Accuracy ng shots on target	39%	35%
Quality ng chances (xG bawat shot)	0.21	0.15
Finishing (goals bawat shot on target)	0.54	0.36

Kapag nasa 0.08 ang xG per shot, kadalasan long-range attempts iyon; ang 0.15+ ay karaniwang chances sa box. Galing sa possession, shot volume at conversion ang style label.

* Ipinapakita ng xG (expected goals) kung ilang goals ang inaasahang makuha ng team mula sa chances nito. Kapag mas mataas ang actual goals kaysa xG, above average ang finishing; kapag mas mababa, may missed chances.

Form ng teams— alin ang mas maganda ang current form?

Last five matches at season record, overall at may home-away split.

Asyut Petroleum

WLLWD

Result split ngayong season

45% W36% D18% L

Season record (W-D-L)

15-12-6

1.73 pts / match · goal difference +14

Last 5 (W-D-L)

2-1-2

1.40 pts / match

Record ng team sa home (W-D-L)

8-6-2

Last 5 sa home

3-1-1

WWDLW

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 1.2Goals na na-concede: 1.0xG: 1.55Opponent xG: 1.13BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 40%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

LWWDL

Result split ngayong season

21% W33% D45% L

Season record (W-D-L)

7-11-15

0.97 pts / match · goal difference -3

Last 5 (W-D-L)

2-1-2

1.40 pts / match

Record ng team sa away (W-D-L)

2-4-10

Last 5 sa away

1-1-3

DLLLW

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 1.4Goals na na-concede: 0.6xG: 0.98Opponent xG: 1.03BTTS: 20%Over 2.5: 40%

Goals— paano nag-i-score at nagko-concede ang dalawang teams?

Ilang goals ang sini-score at kino-concede ng dalawang teams, pati kung gaano kadalas silang mag-clean sheet o hindi maka-score.

Asyut Petroleum ang 20% better sa: goals scored per match.

1.24 goals / match - Asyut Petroleum · 1.03 goals / match - Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

Asyut Petroleum ang 37% better sa: goals conceded per match.

0.82 goals / match - Asyut Petroleum · 1.12 goals / match - Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

Scoring profile ng Asyut Petroleum: malakas

Nakaka-score ang Asyut Petroleum sa 70% ng matches (23 sa 33 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Baladiyyat Al Mehalla sa 27% (9 sa 33 matches).

Scoring profile ng Baladiyyat Al Mehalla: mixed

Nakaka-score ang Baladiyyat Al Mehalla sa 64% ng matches (21 sa 33 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Asyut Petroleum sa 45% (15 sa 33 matches).

41Goals na na-score (season)34

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

27Goals na na-concede (season)37

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

2.06Average ng goals sa match2.15

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

6Goals na na-score (last 5)7

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

5Goals na na-concede (last 5)3

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

Asyut Petroleum

45%

Clean sheets15 sa 33 matches

30%

No goal10 sa 33 matches

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

27%

Clean sheets9 sa 33 matches

36%

No goal12 sa 33 matches

Gaano kadalas silang maka-score ng hindi bababa sa...

70%1 goal64%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

36%2 goals24%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

15%3 goals9%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

3%4 goals6%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

Gaano kadalas silang mag-concede ng hindi bababa sa...

55%1 goal73%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

18%2 goals30%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

6%3 goals9%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

3%4 goals0%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

* Kasama sa statistics ang home at away matches ng dalawang teams sa current season.

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)— gaano kadalas nakaka-score ang parehong teams?

Gaano kadalas may goals ang magkabilang panig sa matches ng teams, kumpara sa league average.

39%

Asyut Petroleum - BTTS13 sa 33 matches

48%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla - BTTS16 sa 33 matches

41%

Average ng liga

Mga pattern ng goal

6%BTTS sa half-time12%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

3%BTTS sa parehong halves0%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

15%Naka-score sa parehong halves12%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

BTTS at goal count

24%Min. 3 goals at BTTS33%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

12%Min. 3 goals na walang BTTS6%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

40%BTTS - last 520%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

Mga goal line (Over/Under)— gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal lines ang kanilang matches?

Gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal thresholds ang matches ng teams, sa full match at bawat half.

Buong match - comparison ng teams (Over)

85%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)88%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

61%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)61%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

36%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)39%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

21%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)24%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

3%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)3%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

Over / Under - Asyut Petroleum

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 85%Under 15%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 61%Under 39%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 36%Under 64%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 21%Under 79%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 3%Under 97%

Over / Under - Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 88%Under 12%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 61%Under 39%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 39%Under 61%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 24%Under 76%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 3%Under 97%

1st half

52%Min. 1 goal bago ang half-time67%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

18%Min. 2 goals bago ang half-time21%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

9%Min. 3 goals bago ang half-time6%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

2nd half

52%Min. 1 goal pagkatapos ng half-time70%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

30%Min. 2 goals pagkatapos ng half-time33%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

3%Min. 3 goals pagkatapos ng half-time15%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

Mga half ng match— saang half mas madalas silang maka-score?

Paano nahahati sa first at second half ang performance: goals, points, clean sheets at state sa half-time.

Asyut Petroleum - state sa half-time

27% nangunguna52% tabla21% nahuhuli

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla - state sa half-time

30% nangunguna39% tabla30% nahuhuli

Bago ang half-time (1st half)

1.33Points bawat match (1st half)1.3

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.42Goals na na-score (1st half)0.42

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.36Goals na na-concede (1st half)0.52

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.79Average ng goals (1st half)0.94

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

73%Clean sheet bago ang half-time58%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

70%Walang goal bago ang half-time64%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

Pagkatapos ng half-time (2nd half)

1.42Points bawat match (2nd half)1.12

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.52Goals na na-score (2nd half)0.61

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.33Goals na na-concede (2nd half)0.61

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.85Average ng goals (2nd half)1.21

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

76%Clean sheet pagkatapos ng half-time52%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

58%Walang goal pagkatapos ng half-time61%

Asyut PetroleumBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

Asyut Petroleum - mga result sa second half

27% W61% D12% L

Half-time points

Half-time goals

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

Goal difference sa 2nd half

1.33

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding167%

Leading sa half-time sa 27% ng matches at nananalo sa 45%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time-0.0

Stable ang defence sa buong match.

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla - mga result sa second half

24% W39% D36% L

Half-time points

Half-time goals

-3

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

Goal difference sa 2nd half

1.30

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding70%

Leading sa half-time sa 30% ng matches at nananalo sa 21%. Minsan nawawala ang lead pagkatapos ng half-time.

Defence after half-time+0.1

Stable ang defence sa buong match.

Asyut Petroleum - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	1.40	2.00
Goals na na-score / match	0.4	0.8
Goals na na-concede / match	0.8	0.2
Average ng goals sa match	1.2	1.0
1 goal	80%	80%
2 goals	20%	20%
3 goals	20%	0%
Clean sheet	60%	80%
No goal	60%	40%
Goal difference	-2	+3

Half-time: 40% nangunguna - 20% tabla - 40% nahuhuli

2nd half: 60% panalo - 20% tabla - 20% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 0% - Total goals sa half-time: 2

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	2.20	1.40
Goals na na-score / match	0.6	0.8
Goals na na-concede / match	0.0	0.6
Average ng goals sa match	0.6	1.4
1 goal	60%	80%
2 goals	0%	40%
3 goals	0%	20%
Clean sheet	100%	60%
No goal	40%	60%
Goal difference	+3	+1

Half-time: 60% nangunguna - 40% tabla - 0% nahuhuli

2nd half: 40% panalo - 20% tabla - 40% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 0% - Total goals sa half-time: 3

* Ipinapakita ng colors sa tables ang event frequency: green ay common, yellow ay moderate, red ay rare. Frequency ito, hindi team rating.

Goals ayon sa minuto— kailan dumarating ang goals?

Mga phase ng match kung kailan pinakamadalas maka-score at mag-concede ang dalawang teams.

Asyut Petroleum

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 0-15 (14 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 0-15 (8). Balance ng late goals (76-90): +7 - malakas sa late phases.

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 31-45 (9 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 16-30 (9). Balance ng late goals (76-90): -1 - mahina sa late phases.

* Kasama sa buckets na 31-45 at 76-90 ang added-time goals.

Karagdagang team indicators— ano ang ipinapakita ng xG, efficiency at form?

Comparison ng chance quality, results at trends mula sa completed matches ngayong season.

Profile ng match

2.11

Estimated na goals

attack laban sa opponent defence

1.2 : 0.9

Estimated na hati ng goals

home : away

108%

Pace kumpara sa liga

100% = average ng liga

44%

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)

average mula sa seasons ng dalawang teams

-100%

Derby effect

H2H goals kumpara sa typical matches

45%

BTTS estimate

mula sa scoring frequency ng dalawang teams

11%

0:0 risk

mga 1 sa bawat 9 matches

0-1

Pinakakaraniwang goal range

attack vs defence sa magkabilang panig

Asyut Petroleum

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

-0.04

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

+0.46

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

-12.1 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

0.00

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

+0.46

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

122%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

88%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

-0.33

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

+0.1

Mga late goal

22% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 34% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

22%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

-0.10

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

+0.01

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

-13.3 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

-0.25

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

+0.26

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

111%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

110%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

+0.43

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

+0.2

Mga late goal

18% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 3% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

18%

* Ang estimated goals, goal split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk at goal range ay galing sa public season averages at frequencies ng dalawang teams. Statistical match profile ito, hindi private model prediction o betting pick. Ang iba pang indicators ay naglalarawan ng completed matches sa season.

Context ng liga— mataas ba ang scoring sa league na ito?

Paano nagko-compare ang dalawang teams sa league-wide averages ng Second Division.

Teams kumpara sa liga

	Asyut Petroleum	Liga	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
Average ng goals sa match	▲ 2.06	1.95	▲ 2.15
Parehong teams naka-score	▼ 39%	41%	▲ 48%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)	▲ 36%	32%	▲ 39%
Clean sheets	▲ 45%	38%	▼ 27%
Goal bago ang half-time	• 52%	53%	▲ 67%
Goal pagkatapos ng half-time	▼ 52%	68%	▲ 70%

^ green = mas mataas sa league average, ˇ red = mas mababa sa league average. Direction ng gap ang ipinapakita nito, hindi team rating.

1.95

Average goals bawat match

41%

Parehong teams naka-score

32%

Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)

38%

Clean sheets

1.02

Home goals bawat match

0.93

Away goals bawat match

+10%

Advantage ng home attack

+9%

Advantage ng home defence

+3%

Kabuuang home advantage

Goals sa 1st half (buong liga)

53%

1 goal

19%

2 goals

3 goals

4 goals

Goals sa 2nd half (buong liga)

68%

1 goal

31%

2 goals

3 goals

4 goals

Referee at coaches

Buksan ang season profiles para makita ang match record, goals at discipline trends.

Home coachAbdelaziz Akef Away coachIbrahim Salah Abdel-Fattah

Head-to-head

Nakaraang meeting: Asyut Petroleum 0 - 1 - 0 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla. Average ng goals 0.00, both teams scored sa 0% matches.

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

0 : 001/03/2026

Asyut Petroleum

Mga madalas itanong

Ano ang result ng Asyut Petroleum vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla?

Natapos ang Second Division match sa score na Asyut Petroleum 1:0 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla. Nasa page na ito ang match statistics, half-by-half data at head-to-head record.

Ano ang ipinapakita ng goal statistics bago ang Asyut Petroleum vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla?

Asyut Petroleum scores 1.24 goals per match at Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1.03. Ang Second Division average ay 1.95 goals, may Over 2.5 sa 32% ng matches. BTTS: Asyut Petroleum 39%, Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 48%.

Ano ang current form ng Asyut Petroleum at Baladiyyat Al Mehalla?

Sa last 5 matches, ang Asyut Petroleum ay 2-1-2 (1.40 points per match), habang ang Baladiyyat Al Mehalla ay 2-1-2 (1.40 points per match).

Saan makikita ang betting pick at full analysis ng Asyut Petroleum vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla?

Nasa page na ito ang statistical context: form, H2H, goals, BTTS at Over/Under. Makikita sa NoFluffPicks app ang betting pick, value bet at full reasoning.