Ghana - Ghana Premier LeagueUpdated ang data noong September 13, 2026

Berekum Chelsea vs Aduana Stars: mga stats ng match

Berekum Chelsea crest
Berekum Chelsea
1 : 0half-time 1:0
Aduana Stars crest
Aduana Stars

Berekum Chelsea vs Aduana Stars: form, goals at mahahalagang stats

Mahahalagang detalye ng match

Naglaro ang Berekum Chelsea laban sa Aduana Stars sa Ghana Premier League (Ghana). Nilaro ang match noong 5 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.

Current na form

Berekum Chelsea: 1-3-1 sa last five matches at 1.20 points per match. Aduana Stars: 1-2-2 at 1.00 points per match.

Stats ng goals

Berekum Chelsea ay may 0.85 goals na na-score at 1.07 na na-concede bawat match. Ang Aduana Stars naman ay may 0.89 na na-score at 0.59 na na-concede. Average ng liga: 1.88 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Berekum Chelsea 41%, Aduana Stars 30%. Over 2.5: Berekum Chelsea 30%, Aduana Stars 22%. League level: BTTS 33%, Over 2.5 31%.

xG, shots at style ng laro

Aduana Stars ang may mas mataas na xG per match: 1.20 vs 1.00. May average na 2.1 shots bawat match ang Berekum Chelsea, habang 4.1 naman ang Aduana Stars.

First at second half

Nangunguna ang Berekum Chelsea sa half-time sa 26% ng matches at nakaka-score ng 0.48 goals pagkatapos ng break. Para sa Aduana Stars, 7% at 0.70 ang mga value.

Goals ayon sa minuto

Berekum Chelsea: 61-75 (6 goals). Aduana Stars: 76-90+ (11 goals). Historical goal distribution ito, hindi prediction ng exact goal minute.

Context ng liga

Ghana Premier League: 1.88 goals per match, BTTS 33% at Over 2.5 31%.

Head-to-head record

Bago ang match na ito, may 1 previous head-to-head matches sa database. Ang record ay 0-0-1, average goals 4.00, at BTTS 100%.

Archived na pre-match analysis

Ginawa ang analysis na ito bago ang kick-off. Ang conclusions ay base lang sa data na available bago ang match at hindi kasama ang final result o post-match statistics.

General match analysis

I predict home win (1): Berekum Chelsea sa home ay nananalo ng 62% ng matches, habang Aduana Stars may 31% lang wins away. Home team may average na 1.23 goals scored at home at 0.54 conceded, samantalang away team ay 0.85 scored at 0.85 conceded away, so advantage for Berekum both offensively and defensively. Berekum generates 1.40 xG at average na 10.5 shots (4.5 on target) sa home, versus 0.79 xG and 4.29 shots (2.14 on target) ng Aduana away, kaya hosts create significantly more quality chances. Kahit na Aduana is 4th sa table (hosts 15th) at may better season record (11 wins vs 8) at 1.4 points per game sa last 5 matches vs 1.2 ng hosts, mataas na clean sheet rate ng Berekum at home (54% vs 31% ng Aduana) at mababang home loss rate (15% vs 46% away losses ng guests) tilt the balance to the hosts. Recommended distribution: 60% home win, 25% draw, 15% away win.

Tingnan ang statistical overview

Ayon sa half

1 : 0
1st half
0 : 0
2nd half

Stats ng match

54Possession (%)46
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
7Shots3
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
3Shots on target1
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
1.03xG0.71
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
4Corners1
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
51Dangerous attacks60
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
-1Fouls-1
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
-1Cards-1
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars

Pre-match na profile— ano ang sinasabi ng season numbers?

Team profile ito batay sa season data at form. Lalabas lang ang match-flow statistics kapag tapos na ang fixture.

1.19Points bawat matchPPG - points per match.1.56
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
0.85Goals na na-score / match0.89
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
1.07Goals na na-concede / match0.59
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
1xG forxG - expected goals o quality ng scoring chances.1.2
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
17%Average na possession24%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
0.44Shots on target bawat match1.41
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
33%Clean sheetsClean sheet - match na walang conceded goal.48%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
41%Parehong teams naka-scoreBTTS - percentage ng matches kung saan naka-score ang parehong teams.30%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars

Stats ng teams— alin ang mas efficient na team?

Comparison ng attack at defence ng dalawang teams sa current season.

2.07Shots bawat match4.07
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
0.44Shots on target1.41
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
41.1%Shot conversion21.8%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
17%Possession24%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
1xG for1.2
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
1.32xG against0.99
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars

Quality ng shooting

Berekum Chelsea: Counter-attacking ang styleAduana Stars: Counter-attacking ang style
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
Accuracy ng shots on target21%35%
Quality ng chances (xG bawat shot)0.480.29
Finishing (goals bawat shot on target)1.930.63

Kapag nasa 0.08 ang xG per shot, kadalasan long-range attempts iyon; ang 0.15+ ay karaniwang chances sa box. Galing sa possession, shot volume at conversion ang style label.

* Ipinapakita ng xG (expected goals) kung ilang goals ang inaasahang makuha ng team mula sa chances nito. Kapag mas mataas ang actual goals kaysa xG, above average ang finishing; kapag mas mababa, may missed chances.

Form ng teams— alin ang mas maganda ang current form?

Last five matches at season record, overall at may home-away split.

Berekum Chelsea ang 20% better sa: form sa last 5 matches.

1.2 pts / match - Berekum Chelsea · 1 pts / match - Aduana Stars

Berekum Chelsea
DDLWD
Result split ngayong season
30% W30% D41% L
Season record (W-D-L)
8-8-11
1.19 pts / match · goal difference -6
Last 5 (W-D-L)
1-3-1
1.20 pts / match
Record ng team sa home (W-D-L)
8-3-2
Last 5 sa home
3-2-0
DWWDW
Averages sa last 5 matches
Goals na na-score: 1.0Goals na na-concede: 1.0xG: 0.85Opponent xG: 1.77BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 20%
Aduana Stars
DLWLD
Result split ngayong season
41% W33% D26% L
Season record (W-D-L)
11-9-7
1.56 pts / match · goal difference +8
Last 5 (W-D-L)
1-2-2
1.00 pts / match
Record ng team sa away (W-D-L)
4-3-6
Last 5 sa away
1-1-3
LWDLL
Averages sa last 5 matches
Goals na na-score: 0.6Goals na na-concede: 0.6xG: 1.21Opponent xG: 1.02BTTS: 20%Over 2.5: 20%

Goals— paano nag-i-score at nagko-concede ang dalawang teams?

Ilang goals ang sini-score at kino-concede ng dalawang teams, pati kung gaano kadalas silang mag-clean sheet o hindi maka-score.

Aduana Stars ang 5% better sa: goals scored per match.

0.85 goals / match - Berekum Chelsea · 0.89 goals / match - Aduana Stars

Aduana Stars ang 81% better sa: goals conceded per match.

1.07 goals / match - Berekum Chelsea · 0.59 goals / match - Aduana Stars

Scoring profile ng Berekum Chelsea: mixed

Nakaka-score ang Berekum Chelsea sa 59% ng matches (16 sa 27 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Aduana Stars sa 48% (13 sa 27 matches).

Scoring profile ng Aduana Stars: mixed

Nakaka-score ang Aduana Stars sa 56% ng matches (15 sa 27 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Berekum Chelsea sa 33% (9 sa 27 matches).

23Goals na na-score (season)24
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
29Goals na na-concede (season)16
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
1.93Average ng goals sa match1.48
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
5Goals na na-score (last 5)3
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
5Goals na na-concede (last 5)3
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
Berekum Chelsea
33%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - match na walang conceded goal.9 sa 27 matches
41%
No goalFailed to score - match kung saan hindi naka-score ang team.11 sa 27 matches
Aduana Stars
48%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - match na walang conceded goal.13 sa 27 matches
44%
No goalFailed to score - match kung saan hindi naka-score ang team.12 sa 27 matches

Gaano kadalas silang maka-score ng hindi bababa sa...

59%1 goal56%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
22%2 goals30%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
4%3 goals4%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
0%4 goals0%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars

Gaano kadalas silang mag-concede ng hindi bababa sa...

67%1 goal52%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
26%2 goals7%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
15%3 goals0%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
0%4 goals0%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars

* Kasama sa statistics ang home at away matches ng dalawang teams sa current season.

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)— gaano kadalas nakaka-score ang parehong teams?

Gaano kadalas may goals ang magkabilang panig sa matches ng teams, kumpara sa league average.

41%
Berekum Chelsea - BTTSBTTS - percentage ng matches kung saan naka-score ang parehong teams.11 sa 27 matches
30%
Aduana Stars - BTTSBTTS - percentage ng matches kung saan naka-score ang parehong teams.8 sa 27 matches
33%
Average ng liga

Mga pattern ng goal

7%BTTS sa half-time11%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
0%BTTS sa parehong halves0%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
19%Naka-score sa parehong halves11%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars

BTTS at goal count

26%Min. 3 goals at BTTS22%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
4%Min. 3 goals na walang BTTS0%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
60%BTTS - last 520%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars

Mga goal line (Over/Under)— gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal lines ang kanilang matches?

Gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal thresholds ang matches ng teams, sa full match at bawat half.

Buong match - comparison ng teams (Over)

85%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)Over 0.5 - may hindi bababa sa isang goal sa match.78%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
63%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)Over 1.5 - may hindi bababa sa dalawang goals sa match.41%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
30%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)Over 2.5 - may hindi bababa sa tatlong goals sa match.22%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
15%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)Over 3.5 - may hindi bababa sa apat na goals sa match.7%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
0%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)Over 4.5 - may hindi bababa sa limang goals sa match.0%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars

Over / Under - Berekum Chelsea

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - may hindi bababa sa isang goal sa match.
Over 85%Under 15%
Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - may hindi bababa sa dalawang goals sa match.
Over 63%Under 37%
Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - may hindi bababa sa tatlong goals sa match.
Over 30%Under 70%
Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - may hindi bababa sa apat na goals sa match.
Over 15%Under 85%
Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - may hindi bababa sa limang goals sa match.
Over 0%Under 100%

Over / Under - Aduana Stars

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - may hindi bababa sa isang goal sa match.
Over 78%Under 22%
Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - may hindi bababa sa dalawang goals sa match.
Over 41%Under 59%
Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - may hindi bababa sa tatlong goals sa match.
Over 22%Under 78%
Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - may hindi bababa sa apat na goals sa match.
Over 7%Under 93%
Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - may hindi bababa sa limang goals sa match.
Over 0%Under 100%

1st half

52%Min. 1 goal bago ang half-time52%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
19%Min. 2 goals bago ang half-time11%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
0%Min. 3 goals bago ang half-time4%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars

2nd half

70%Min. 1 goal pagkatapos ng half-time52%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
37%Min. 2 goals pagkatapos ng half-time22%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
11%Min. 3 goals pagkatapos ng half-time7%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars

Mga half ng match— saang half mas madalas silang maka-score?

Paano nahahati sa first at second half ang performance: goals, points, clean sheets at state sa half-time.

Berekum Chelsea ang 71% better sa: form sa first half (half-time points).

1.33 pts / match - Berekum Chelsea · 0.78 pts / match - Aduana Stars

Berekum Chelsea - state sa half-time
26% nangunguna56% tabla19% nahuhuli
Aduana Stars - state sa half-time
7% nangunguna56% tabla37% nahuhuli

Bago ang half-time (1st half)

1.33Points bawat match (1st half)0.78
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
0.37Goals na na-score (1st half)0.19
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
0.33Goals na na-concede (1st half)0.48
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
0.7Average ng goals (1st half)0.67
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
74%Clean sheet bago ang half-time56%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
67%Walang goal bago ang half-time81%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars

Pagkatapos ng half-time (2nd half)

1Points bawat match (2nd half)1.93
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
0.48Goals na na-score (2nd half)0.7
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
0.74Goals na na-concede (2nd half)0.11
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
1.22Average ng goals (2nd half)0.81
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
48%Clean sheet pagkatapos ng half-time89%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars
56%Walang goal pagkatapos ng half-time52%
Berekum ChelseaAduana Stars

Berekum Chelsea - mga result sa second half

19% W44% D37% L
36
Half-time points
10
Half-time goals
+1
Goal difference sa 1st half
27
Second-half points
-7
Goal difference sa 2nd half
1.33
PPG bago ang half-time
Lead holding115%

Leading sa half-time sa 26% ng matches at nananalo sa 30%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.4

Nagko-concede ng 0.4 more goals per match pagkatapos ng half-time - bumababa ang defensive level sa second half.

Aduana Stars - mga result sa second half

48% W48% D4% L
21
Half-time points
5
Half-time goals
-8
Goal difference sa 1st half
52
Second-half points
+16
Goal difference sa 2nd half
0.78
PPG bago ang half-time
Lead holding586%

Leading sa half-time sa 7% ng matches at nananalo sa 41%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time-0.4

Stable ang defence sa buong match.

Berekum Chelsea - last 5 matches per half
1st half2nd half
Points bawat match1.400.80
Goals na na-score / match0.40.6
Goals na na-concede / match0.01.0
Average ng goals sa match0.41.6
1 goal20%60%
2 goals20%60%
3 goals0%20%
Clean sheet100%40%
No goal80%40%
Goal difference+2-2
Half-time: 20% nangunguna - 80% tabla - 0% nahuhuli
2nd half: 0% panalo - 80% tabla - 20% talo
BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 0% - Total goals sa half-time: 2
Aduana Stars - last 5 matches per half
1st half2nd half
Points bawat match0.801.20
Goals na na-score / match0.20.4
Goals na na-concede / match0.40.2
Average ng goals sa match0.60.6
1 goal20%40%
2 goals20%20%
3 goals20%0%
Clean sheet80%80%
No goal80%80%
Goal difference-1+1
Half-time: 0% nangunguna - 80% tabla - 20% nahuhuli
2nd half: 20% panalo - 60% tabla - 20% talo
BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 20% - Total goals sa half-time: 1

* Ipinapakita ng colors sa tables ang event frequency: green ay common, yellow ay moderate, red ay rare. Frequency ito, hindi team rating.

Goals ayon sa minuto— kailan dumarating ang goals?

Mga phase ng match kung kailan pinakamadalas maka-score at mag-concede ang dalawang teams.

Berekum Chelsea
Na-scoreNa-concede
2
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
6
46-60
6
7
61-75
4
7
76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 61-75 (6 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 61-75 (7). Balance ng late goals (76-90): -3 - mahina sa late phases.

Aduana Stars
Na-scoreNa-concede
2
2
0-15
2
7
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
11
0
76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 16-30 (7). Balance ng late goals (76-90): +11 - malakas sa late phases.

* Kasama sa buckets na 31-45 at 76-90 ang added-time goals.

Karagdagang team indicators— ano ang ipinapakita ng xG, efficiency at form?

Comparison ng chance quality, results at trends mula sa completed matches ngayong season.

Profile ng match

1.70
Estimated na goals
attack laban sa opponent defence
0.7 : 1.0
Estimated na hati ng goals
home : away
90%
Pace kumpara sa liga
100% = average ng liga
36%
Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)
average mula sa seasons ng dalawang teams
+135%
Derby effect
H2H goals kumpara sa typical matches
33%
BTTS estimate
mula sa scoring frequency ng dalawang teams
18%
0:0 risk
mga 1 sa bawat 6 matches
0-1
Pinakakaraniwang goal range
attack vs defence sa magkabilang panig

Berekum Chelsea

Net xG balance
Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.
-0.32
Results kumpara sa xG
Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.
+0.10
Points kumpara sa goal balance
Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.
+0.7 pts
Efficiency ng finishing
Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.
-0.15
Efficiency ng defence
Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.
+0.25
Attack vs league
Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.
67%
Defence vs league
Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.
175%
Trend ng form
Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.
+0.01
Mas malakas sa second half?
Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.
+0.1
Mga late goal
17% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 9% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.
17%

Aduana Stars

Net xG balance
Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.
+0.21
Results kumpara sa xG
Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.
+0.09
Points kumpara sa goal balance
Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.
-14.1 pts
Efficiency ng finishing
Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.
-0.31
Efficiency ng defence
Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.
+0.40
Attack vs league
Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.
146%
Defence vs league
Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.
47%
Trend ng form
Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.
-0.56
Mas malakas sa second half?
Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.
+0.5
Mga late goal
46% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 8% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.
46%

* Ang estimated goals, goal split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk at goal range ay galing sa public season averages at frequencies ng dalawang teams. Statistical match profile ito, hindi private model prediction o betting pick. Ang iba pang indicators ay naglalarawan ng completed matches sa season.

Context ng liga— mataas ba ang scoring sa league na ito?

Paano nagko-compare ang dalawang teams sa league-wide averages ng Ghana Premier League.

Teams kumpara sa liga

Berekum ChelseaLigaAduana Stars
Average ng goals sa match• 1.931.88▼ 1.48
Parehong teams naka-score▲ 41%33%▼ 30%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)• 30%31%▼ 22%
Clean sheets▼ 33%42%▲ 48%
Goal bago ang half-time▼ 52%60%▼ 52%
Goal pagkatapos ng half-time▲ 70%60%▼ 52%

^ green = mas mataas sa league average, ˇ red = mas mababa sa league average. Direction ng gap ang ipinapakita nito, hindi team rating.

1.88
Average goals bawat match
33%
Parehong teams naka-score
31%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
42%
Clean sheets
1.26
Home goals bawat match
0.61
Away goals bawat match
+107%
Advantage ng home attack
+52%
Advantage ng home defence
+41%
Kabuuang home advantage
Goals sa 1st half (buong liga)
60%
1 goal
24%
2 goals
7%
3 goals
1%
4 goals
Goals sa 2nd half (buong liga)
60%
1 goal
27%
2 goals
8%
3 goals
1%
4 goals

Lineups at player events

Verified starters, substitutes at recorded events para sa match.

Home team

Away team

Referee at coaches

Buksan ang season profiles para makita ang match record, goals at discipline trends.

Home coachSolomon Odwo

Head-to-head

Nakaraang meeting: Berekum Chelsea 0 - 0 - 1 Aduana Stars. Average ng goals 4.00, both teams scored sa 100% matches.

Aduana Stars
3 : 1
Berekum Chelsea

Mga madalas itanong

Ano ang result ng Berekum Chelsea vs Aduana Stars?

Natapos ang Ghana Premier League match sa score na Berekum Chelsea 1:0 Aduana Stars. Nasa page na ito ang match statistics, half-by-half data at head-to-head record.

Ano ang ipinapakita ng goal statistics bago ang Berekum Chelsea vs Aduana Stars?

Berekum Chelsea scores 0.85 goals per match at Aduana Stars 0.89. Ang Ghana Premier League average ay 1.88 goals, may Over 2.5 sa 31% ng matches. BTTS: Berekum Chelsea 41%, Aduana Stars 30%.

Ano ang current form ng Berekum Chelsea at Aduana Stars?

Sa last 5 matches, ang Berekum Chelsea ay 1-3-1 (1.20 points per match), habang ang Aduana Stars ay 1-2-2 (1.00 points per match).

Saan makikita ang betting pick at full analysis ng Berekum Chelsea vs Aduana Stars?

Nasa page na ito ang statistical context: form, H2H, goals, BTTS at Over/Under. Makikita sa NoFluffPicks app ang betting pick, value bet at full reasoning.