Egypt - Egyptian Premier League03/11/2026, 07:30 PMUpdated ang data noong September 12, 2026

ENPPI vs Zamalek: mga stats ng match

ENPPI

1 : 0half-time 1:0

Zamalek

125%(4.40)

X25%(3.10)

250%(1.80)

BTTS Over/Under HT/FT

Pick: 2Talo

Pick score:47.01

Value:-10.00%

Bilang league leader, ang Zamalek ay nagpapakita ng mas mataas na form at efficiency kaysa sa ENPPI. Ang away team ay may impressive na record na 13 wins at 2 losses lamang ngayong season, at ang form nila sa last 5 matches (4 wins) ay nagpapatunay ng kanilang stability. Ang ENPPI ay nasa pang-8 place sa table at madalas mag-draw (33% draw rate sa home), na pwedeng magpahirap sa Zamalek na makuha ang easy win. Ang key advantage ng visitors ay ang kanilang attacking efficiency - average na 1.89 goals per away match na may 0% failed to score rate, habang ang ENPPI ay nag-a-average lamang ng 1 goal sa home. Ang difference sa quality ng parehong teams (goal difference +8 vs +2) at ang 67% away win rate ng Zamalek ay nag-i-indicate ng panalo para sa away team, kahit na ang solid na defense ng hosts (56% clean sheets) ay pwedeng maging dahilan para maging tight ang laban na ito.

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ENPPI vs Zamalek: form, goals at mahahalagang stats

Mahahalagang detalye ng match

Naglaro ang ENPPI laban sa Zamalek sa Egyptian Premier League (Egypt). Nilaro ang match noong 11 March 2026. Final score: 1:0.

Current na form

ENPPI: 2-1-2 sa last five matches at 1.40 points per match. Zamalek: 5-0-0 at 3.00 points per match.

Stats ng goals

ENPPI ay may 1.00 goals na na-score at 0.84 na na-concede bawat match. Ang Zamalek naman ay may 1.68 na na-score at 0.63 na na-concede. Average ng liga: 2.02 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: ENPPI 47%, Zamalek 47%. Over 2.5: ENPPI 32%, Zamalek 37%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 34%.

xG, shots at style ng laro

Zamalek ang may mas mataas na xG per match: 1.54 vs 1.12. May average na 8.8 shots bawat match ang ENPPI, habang 14.1 naman ang Zamalek.

First at second half

Nangunguna ang ENPPI sa half-time sa 26% ng matches at nakaka-score ng 0.58 goals pagkatapos ng break. Para sa Zamalek, 63% at 0.89 ang mga value.

Goals ayon sa minuto

ENPPI: 76-90+ (5 goals). Zamalek: 76-90+ (8 goals). Historical goal distribution ito, hindi prediction ng exact goal minute.

Context ng liga

Egyptian Premier League: 2.02 goals per match, BTTS 47% at Over 2.5 34%.

Head-to-head record

Wala pang sapat na head-to-head sample para gawing pangunahing comparison.

Archived na pre-match analysis

Ginawa ang analysis na ito bago ang kick-off. Ang conclusions ay base lang sa data na available bago ang match at hindi kasama ang final result o post-match statistics.

General match analysis

Tingnan ang statistical overview

Ayon sa half

1 : 0

1st half

0 : 0

2nd half

Stats ng match

39Possession (%)61

ENPPIZamalek

13Shots11

ENPPIZamalek

3Shots on target1

ENPPIZamalek

1.36xG1.25

ENPPIZamalek

5Corners4

ENPPIZamalek

45Dangerous attacks67

ENPPIZamalek

10Fouls17

ENPPIZamalek

1Cards2

ENPPIZamalek

Pre-match na profile— ano ang sinasabi ng season numbers?

Team profile ito batay sa season data at form. Lalabas lang ang match-flow statistics kapag tapos na ang fixture.

1.42Points bawat match2.26

ENPPIZamalek

1Goals na na-score / match1.68

ENPPIZamalek

0.84Goals na na-concede / match0.63

ENPPIZamalek

1.12xG for1.54

ENPPIZamalek

52%Average na possession54%

ENPPIZamalek

3Shots on target bawat match5.11

ENPPIZamalek

42%Clean sheets53%

ENPPIZamalek

47%Parehong teams naka-score47%

ENPPIZamalek

Stats ng teams— alin ang mas efficient na team?

Comparison ng attack at defence ng dalawang teams sa current season.

8.84Shots bawat match14.05

ENPPIZamalek

3Shots on target5.11

ENPPIZamalek

11.3%Shot conversion12%

ENPPIZamalek

52%Possession54%

ENPPIZamalek

1.12xG for1.54

ENPPIZamalek

1.26xG against1.08

ENPPIZamalek

Quality ng shooting

ENPPI: Balanced ang styleZamalek: Attacking ang style

	ENPPI	Zamalek
Accuracy ng shots on target	34%	36%
Quality ng chances (xG bawat shot)	0.13	0.11
Finishing (goals bawat shot on target)	0.33	0.33

Kapag nasa 0.08 ang xG per shot, kadalasan long-range attempts iyon; ang 0.15+ ay karaniwang chances sa box. Galing sa possession, shot volume at conversion ang style label.

* Ipinapakita ng xG (expected goals) kung ilang goals ang inaasahang makuha ng team mula sa chances nito. Kapag mas mataas ang actual goals kaysa xG, above average ang finishing; kapag mas mababa, may missed chances.

Form ng teams— alin ang mas maganda ang current form?

Last five matches at season record, overall at may home-away split.

Zamalek ang 114% better sa: form sa last 5 matches.

1.4 pts / match - ENPPI · 3 pts / match - Zamalek

ENPPI

LDLWW

Result split ngayong season

32% W47% D21% L

Season record (W-D-L)

6-9-4

1.42 pts / match · goal difference +3

Last 5 (W-D-L)

2-1-2

1.40 pts / match

Record ng team sa home (W-D-L)

4-3-2

Last 5 sa home

2-1-2

WLLDW

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 1.2Goals na na-concede: 1.2xG: 1.19Opponent xG: 0.91BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 60%

Zamalek

WWWWW

5 straight wins

Result split ngayong season

68% W21% D11% L

Season record (W-D-L)

13-4-2

2.26 pts / match · goal difference +20

Last 5 (W-D-L)

5-0-0

3.00 pts / match

Record ng team sa away (W-D-L)

6-1-2

Last 5 sa away

3-1-1

LDWWW

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 1.4Goals na na-concede: 0.2xG: 1.62Opponent xG: 1.15BTTS: 20%Over 2.5: 20%

Goals— paano nag-i-score at nagko-concede ang dalawang teams?

Ilang goals ang sini-score at kino-concede ng dalawang teams, pati kung gaano kadalas silang mag-clean sheet o hindi maka-score.

Zamalek ang 68% better sa: goals scored per match.

1 goals / match - ENPPI · 1.68 goals / match - Zamalek

Zamalek ang 33% better sa: goals conceded per match.

0.84 goals / match - ENPPI · 0.63 goals / match - Zamalek

Scoring profile ng ENPPI: mixed

Nakaka-score ang ENPPI sa 68% ng matches (13 sa 19 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Zamalek sa 53% (10 sa 19 matches).

Scoring profile ng Zamalek: napakalakas

Nakaka-score ang Zamalek sa 95% ng matches (18 sa 19 matches), habang may clean sheet ang ENPPI sa 42% (8 sa 19 matches).

19Goals na na-score (season)32

ENPPIZamalek

16Goals na na-concede (season)12

ENPPIZamalek

1.84Average ng goals sa match2.32

ENPPIZamalek

6Goals na na-score (last 5)7

ENPPIZamalek

6Goals na na-concede (last 5)1

ENPPIZamalek

ENPPI

42%

Clean sheets8 sa 19 matches

32%

No goal6 sa 19 matches

Zamalek

53%

Clean sheets10 sa 19 matches

No goal1 sa 19 matches

Gaano kadalas silang maka-score ng hindi bababa sa...

68%1 goal95%

ENPPIZamalek

21%2 goals47%

ENPPIZamalek

11%3 goals16%

ENPPIZamalek

0%4 goals5%

ENPPIZamalek

Gaano kadalas silang mag-concede ng hindi bababa sa...

58%1 goal47%

ENPPIZamalek

26%2 goals16%

ENPPIZamalek

0%3 goals0%

ENPPIZamalek

0%4 goals0%

ENPPIZamalek

* Kasama sa statistics ang home at away matches ng dalawang teams sa current season.

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)— gaano kadalas nakaka-score ang parehong teams?

Gaano kadalas may goals ang magkabilang panig sa matches ng teams, kumpara sa league average.

47%

ENPPI - BTTS9 sa 19 matches

47%

Zamalek - BTTS9 sa 19 matches

47%

Average ng liga

Mga pattern ng goal

16%BTTS sa half-time11%

ENPPIZamalek

0%BTTS sa parehong halves5%

ENPPIZamalek

21%Naka-score sa parehong halves32%

ENPPIZamalek

BTTS at goal count

26%Min. 3 goals at BTTS32%

ENPPIZamalek

5%Min. 3 goals na walang BTTS5%

ENPPIZamalek

60%BTTS - last 520%

ENPPIZamalek

Mga goal line (Over/Under)— gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal lines ang kanilang matches?

Gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal thresholds ang matches ng teams, sa full match at bawat half.

Buong match - comparison ng teams (Over)

79%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)95%

ENPPIZamalek

58%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)74%

ENPPIZamalek

32%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)37%

ENPPIZamalek

11%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)11%

ENPPIZamalek

5%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)5%

ENPPIZamalek

Over / Under - ENPPI

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 79%Under 21%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 58%Under 42%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 32%Under 68%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 11%Under 89%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 5%Under 95%

Over / Under - Zamalek

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 95%Under 5%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 74%Under 26%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 37%Under 63%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 11%Under 89%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 5%Under 95%

1st half

63%Min. 1 goal bago ang half-time68%

ENPPIZamalek

16%Min. 2 goals bago ang half-time16%

ENPPIZamalek

5%Min. 3 goals bago ang half-time5%

ENPPIZamalek

2nd half

63%Min. 1 goal pagkatapos ng half-time79%

ENPPIZamalek

32%Min. 2 goals pagkatapos ng half-time47%

ENPPIZamalek

5%Min. 3 goals pagkatapos ng half-time11%

ENPPIZamalek

Mga half ng match— saang half mas madalas silang maka-score?

Paano nahahati sa first at second half ang performance: goals, points, clean sheets at state sa half-time.

Zamalek ang 79% better sa: form sa first half (half-time points).

1.26 pts / match - ENPPI · 2.26 pts / match - Zamalek

ENPPI - state sa half-time

26% nangunguna47% tabla26% nahuhuli

Zamalek - state sa half-time

63% nangunguna37% tabla0% nahuhuli

Bago ang half-time (1st half)

1.26Points bawat match (1st half)2.26

ENPPIZamalek

0.42Goals na na-score (1st half)0.79

ENPPIZamalek

0.42Goals na na-concede (1st half)0.11

ENPPIZamalek

0.84Average ng goals (1st half)0.89

ENPPIZamalek

63%Clean sheet bago ang half-time89%

ENPPIZamalek

58%Walang goal bago ang half-time32%

ENPPIZamalek

Pagkatapos ng half-time (2nd half)

1.42Points bawat match (2nd half)1.74

ENPPIZamalek

0.58Goals na na-score (2nd half)0.89

ENPPIZamalek

0.42Goals na na-concede (2nd half)0.53

ENPPIZamalek

1Average ng goals (2nd half)1.42

ENPPIZamalek

68%Clean sheet pagkatapos ng half-time58%

ENPPIZamalek

53%Walang goal pagkatapos ng half-time42%

ENPPIZamalek

ENPPI - mga result sa second half

32% W47% D21% L

Half-time points

Half-time goals

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

Goal difference sa 2nd half

1.26

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding123%

Leading sa half-time sa 26% ng matches at nananalo sa 32%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time0.0

Stable ang defence sa buong match.

Zamalek - mga result sa second half

47% W32% D21% L

Half-time points

Half-time goals

+13

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

Goal difference sa 2nd half

2.26

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding108%

Leading sa half-time sa 63% ng matches at nananalo sa 68%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.4

Nagko-concede ng 0.4 more goals per match pagkatapos ng half-time - bumababa ang defensive level sa second half.

ENPPI - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	0.80	1.40
Goals na na-score / match	0.4	0.8
Goals na na-concede / match	0.8	0.4
Average ng goals sa match	1.2	1.2
1 goal	80%	60%
2 goals	20%	60%
3 goals	20%	0%
Clean sheet	40%	60%
No goal	60%	40%
Goal difference	-2	+2

Half-time: 20% nangunguna - 20% tabla - 60% nahuhuli

2nd half: 20% panalo - 80% tabla - 0% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 20% - Total goals sa half-time: 2

Zamalek - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	1.80	2.20
Goals na na-score / match	0.4	1.0
Goals na na-concede / match	0.0	0.2
Average ng goals sa match	0.4	1.2
1 goal	40%	80%
2 goals	0%	40%
3 goals	0%	0%
Clean sheet	100%	80%
No goal	60%	20%
Goal difference	+2	+4

Half-time: 40% nangunguna - 60% tabla - 0% nahuhuli

2nd half: 60% panalo - 40% tabla - 0% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 0% - Total goals sa half-time: 2

* Ipinapakita ng colors sa tables ang event frequency: green ay common, yellow ay moderate, red ay rare. Frequency ito, hindi team rating.

Goals ayon sa minuto— kailan dumarating ang goals?

Mga phase ng match kung kailan pinakamadalas maka-score at mag-concede ang dalawang teams.

ENPPI

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 31-45 (4). Balance ng late goals (76-90): +1 - malakas sa late phases.

Zamalek

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 61-75 (5). Balance ng late goals (76-90): +5 - malakas sa late phases.

* Kasama sa buckets na 31-45 at 76-90 ang added-time goals.

Karagdagang team indicators— ano ang ipinapakita ng xG, efficiency at form?

Comparison ng chance quality, results at trends mula sa completed matches ngayong season.

Profile ng match

2.08

Estimated na goals

attack laban sa opponent defence

0.8 : 1.3

Estimated na hati ng goals

home : away

103%

Pace kumpara sa liga

100% = average ng liga

47%

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)

average mula sa seasons ng dalawang teams

-100%

Derby effect

H2H goals kumpara sa typical matches

65%

BTTS estimate

mula sa scoring frequency ng dalawang teams

0:0 risk

mga 1 sa bawat 50 matches

0-1

Pinakakaraniwang goal range

attack vs defence sa magkabilang panig

ENPPI

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

-0.14

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

+0.30

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

-6.4 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

-0.12

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

+0.42

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

97%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

85%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

-0.02

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

+0.2

Mga late goal

26% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 11% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

26%

Zamalek

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

+0.46

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

+0.59

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

-7.0 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

+0.14

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

+0.45

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

170%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

61%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

+0.74

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

+0.1

Mga late goal

25% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 16% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

25%

* Ang estimated goals, goal split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk at goal range ay galing sa public season averages at frequencies ng dalawang teams. Statistical match profile ito, hindi private model prediction o betting pick. Ang iba pang indicators ay naglalarawan ng completed matches sa season.

Context ng liga— mataas ba ang scoring sa league na ito?

Paano nagko-compare ang dalawang teams sa league-wide averages ng Egyptian Premier League.

Teams kumpara sa liga

	ENPPI	Liga	Zamalek
Average ng goals sa match	▼ 1.84	2.02	▲ 2.32
Parehong teams naka-score	• 47%	47%	• 47%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)	▼ 32%	34%	▲ 37%
Clean sheets	▲ 42%	34%	▲ 53%
Goal bago ang half-time	▲ 63%	58%	▲ 68%
Goal pagkatapos ng half-time	▼ 63%	71%	▲ 79%

^ green = mas mataas sa league average, ˇ red = mas mababa sa league average. Direction ng gap ang ipinapakita nito, hindi team rating.

2.02

Average goals bawat match

47%

Parehong teams naka-score

34%

Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)

34%

Clean sheets

1.03

Home goals bawat match

0.99

Away goals bawat match

+4%

Advantage ng home attack

+4%

Advantage ng home defence

+4%

Kabuuang home advantage

Goals sa 1st half (buong liga)

58%

1 goal

19%

2 goals

3 goals

4 goals

Goals sa 2nd half (buong liga)

71%

1 goal

36%

2 goals

10%

3 goals

4 goals

Lineups at player events

Verified starters, substitutes at recorded events para sa match.

Home team

Starting lineup

1Abdel Rahman Samir 4Ahmed Khalil Ibrahim 5Ahmed Abdel Fattah Sabeha🟨 1 6Zeyad Kamal 8Hesham Adel 11Moahmed Sherif Mohamed 12Ali Mahmoud 15Mohab Samy 22Ahmed Sobhi El Agouz⚽ 1 · lumabas 63'28Hamed Abdallahlumabas 77'30Aqtay Abdallahlumabas 83'

Substitutes

9Ahmed Zakipumasok 1'10Mahmoud Abdul Monem Abdelhamid Solimanpumasok 83'14Emad Mayhoubpumasok 63'25Sayed Saidpumasok 1'27Salah Mohamed Zayedpumasok 77'

29Ramadan Mostafapumasok 1'

Away team

Starting lineup

3Mahmoud Bentayg🟨 1 5Hossam Abdelmaguid 9Naser El Mansi 12Ahmed Rabialumabas 46'13Ahmed Aboel Fettohlumabas 76'19Abdalla Mahmoud El Said Bekhit 24Mohamed Ismail🟨 1 33Juan Alvina Bezerra 37Al Mahdi Soliman 39Mohamed El Sayed Mohamedlumabas 38'52Mohamed Ibrahim Hassanlumabas 83'

Substitutes

11Ahmed Abdel Rahimpumasok 1'16Mohamed Sobhipumasok 1'18Adam Kaiedpumasok 46'30Seifeddine Jaziripumasok 83'

38Baron Ochiengpumasok 1'

43El Sayed Osamapumasok 1'

44Youssef Waelpumasok 76'

81Francisco Sacalumbopumasok 1'98Oday Ibrahim Mohammad Dabbaghpumasok 38'

Timeline ng match

Mga goal, card at substitution ayon sa pagkakasunod ng oras.

18'
ENPPIGoalAhmed Sobhi El Agouz
30'
ENPPIYellow cardAhmed Abdel Fattah Sabeha
38'
ZamalekSubstitutionPumasok: Oday Ibrahim Mohammad DabbaghLumabas: Mohamed El Sayed Mohamed
41'
ZamalekYellow cardMohamed Ismail
46'
ZamalekSubstitutionPumasok: Adam KaiedLumabas: Ahmed Rabia
63'
ENPPISubstitutionPumasok: Emad MayhoubLumabas: Ahmed Sobhi El Agouz
76'
ZamalekSubstitutionPumasok: Youssef WaelLumabas: Ahmed Aboel Fettoh
77'
ENPPISubstitutionPumasok: Salah Mohamed ZayedLumabas: Hamed Abdallah
83'
ZamalekSubstitutionPumasok: Seifeddine JaziriLumabas: Mohamed Ibrahim Hassan
83'
ENPPISubstitutionPumasok: Mahmoud Abdul Monem Abdelhamid SolimanLumabas: Aqtay Abdallah
89'
ZamalekYellow cardMahmoud Bentayg

Referee at coaches

Buksan ang season profiles para makita ang match record, goals at discipline trends.

RefereeTarek Magdy

Konteksto ng referee

Season averages at hatian ng resulta sa mga match na hinawakan ng referee na ito.

Tarek MagdyMatches officiated: 13

5.15Cards kada match

0Penalties kada match

1 / X / 231%Home wins54%Draws15%Away wins

Mga madalas itanong

Ano ang result ng ENPPI vs Zamalek?

Natapos ang Egyptian Premier League match sa score na ENPPI 1:0 Zamalek. Nasa page na ito ang match statistics, half-by-half data at head-to-head record.

Ano ang ipinapakita ng goal statistics bago ang ENPPI vs Zamalek?

ENPPI scores 1.00 goals per match at Zamalek 1.68. Ang Egyptian Premier League average ay 2.02 goals, may Over 2.5 sa 34% ng matches. BTTS: ENPPI 47%, Zamalek 47%.

Ano ang current form ng ENPPI at Zamalek?

Sa last 5 matches, ang ENPPI ay 2-1-2 (1.40 points per match), habang ang Zamalek ay 5-0-0 (3.00 points per match).

Saan makikita ang betting pick at full analysis ng ENPPI vs Zamalek?

Nasa page na ito ang statistical context: form, H2H, goals, BTTS at Over/Under. Makikita sa NoFluffPicks app ang betting pick, value bet at full reasoning.