Germany - 3. Liga04/12/2026, 02:30 PMUpdated ang data noong September 07, 2026

Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl: mga stats ng match

Erzgebirge Aue

1 : 1half-time 0:1

Verl

Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl: form, goals at mahahalagang stats

Mahahalagang detalye ng match

Naglaro ang Erzgebirge Aue laban sa Verl sa 3. Liga (Germany). Nilaro ang match noong 12 April 2026. Final score: 1:1.

Current na form

Erzgebirge Aue: 0-0-5 sa last five matches at 0.00 points per match. Verl: 3-0-2 at 1.80 points per match.

Stats ng goals

Erzgebirge Aue ay may 1.16 goals na na-score at 1.88 na na-concede bawat match. Ang Verl naman ay may 2.22 na na-score at 1.38 na na-concede. Average ng liga: 3.13 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Erzgebirge Aue 63%, Verl 72%. Over 2.5: Erzgebirge Aue 66%, Verl 78%. League level: BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 63%.

xG, shots at style ng laro

Verl ang may mas mataas na xG per match: 1.82 vs 1.48. May average na 12.2 shots bawat match ang Erzgebirge Aue, habang 15.2 naman ang Verl.

First at second half

Nangunguna ang Erzgebirge Aue sa half-time sa 22% ng matches at nakaka-score ng 0.63 goals pagkatapos ng break. Para sa Verl, 44% at 1.25 ang mga value.

Goals ayon sa minuto

Erzgebirge Aue: 31-45+ (10 goals). Verl: 76-90+ (17 goals). Historical goal distribution ito, hindi prediction ng exact goal minute.

Context ng liga

3. Liga: 3.13 goals per match, BTTS 64% at Over 2.5 63%.

Head-to-head record

Bago ang match na ito, may 1 previous head-to-head matches sa database. Ang record ay 0-1-0, average goals 2.00, at BTTS 100%.

Archived na pre-match analysis

Ginawa ang analysis na ito bago ang kick-off. Ang conclusions ay base lang sa data na available bago ang match at hindi kasama ang final result o post-match statistics.

General match analysis

Predict ko win ang away (2) dahil clear advantage si Verl sa finishing at form. Verl scored 71 goals this season vs 37 ng Erzgebirge Aue, at away average nila 1.88 goals per match vs 1.38 ng Aue sa home. Sa last 5 matches Verl scored 10 at conceded only 4 (avg 2.0 scored, 0.8 conceded), habang Aue sa same period scored 16 at conceded 12 (avg 3.2 scored, 2.4 conceded), na nagreresulta sa 1.8 points per match para sa Verl vs 0.6 para sa Aue. Plus, Verl may higher away xG (1.72) kaysa Aue at home (1.60),明显 higher possession (65% vs 51%) at more shots on target (5.44 vs 4.69), at lower share ng goalless matches (19% vs 38%). Aue defense at home concedes on average 1.81 goals per match at has negative home goal difference (-7), samantalang Verl away concedes 1.63 goals at has +4 goal difference, kaya mas mataas ang chances ng Verl.

Tingnan ang statistical overview

Ayon sa half

0 : 1

1st half

1 : 0

2nd half

Stats ng match

32Possession (%)68

Erzgebirge AueVerl

5Shots11

Erzgebirge AueVerl

3Shots on target2

Erzgebirge AueVerl

0.73xG1.32

Erzgebirge AueVerl

2Corners10

Erzgebirge AueVerl

27Dangerous attacks66

Erzgebirge AueVerl

11Fouls4

Erzgebirge AueVerl

1Cards1

Erzgebirge AueVerl

Pre-match na profile— ano ang sinasabi ng season numbers?

Team profile ito batay sa season data at form. Lalabas lang ang match-flow statistics kapag tapos na ang fixture.

0.75Points bawat match1.69

Erzgebirge AueVerl

1.16Goals na na-score / match2.22

Erzgebirge AueVerl

1.88Goals na na-concede / match1.38

Erzgebirge AueVerl

1.48xG for1.82

Erzgebirge AueVerl

49%Average na possession66%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

4.31Shots on target bawat match5.78

Erzgebirge AueVerl

22%Clean sheets22%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

63%Parehong teams naka-score72%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

Stats ng teams— alin ang mas efficient na team?

Comparison ng attack at defence ng dalawang teams sa current season.

12.22Shots bawat match15.22

Erzgebirge AueVerl

4.31Shots on target5.78

Erzgebirge AueVerl

9.5%Shot conversion14.6%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

49%Possession66%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

1.48xG for1.82

Erzgebirge AueVerl

1.73xG against1.24

Erzgebirge AueVerl

Quality ng shooting

Erzgebirge Aue: Balanced ang styleVerl: Dominant

	Erzgebirge Aue	Verl
Accuracy ng shots on target	35%	38%
Quality ng chances (xG bawat shot)	0.12	0.12
Finishing (goals bawat shot on target)	0.27	0.38

Kapag nasa 0.08 ang xG per shot, kadalasan long-range attempts iyon; ang 0.15+ ay karaniwang chances sa box. Galing sa possession, shot volume at conversion ang style label.

* Ipinapakita ng xG (expected goals) kung ilang goals ang inaasahang makuha ng team mula sa chances nito. Kapag mas mataas ang actual goals kaysa xG, above average ang finishing; kapag mas mababa, may missed chances.

Form ng teams— alin ang mas maganda ang current form?

Last five matches at season record, overall at may home-away split.

Erzgebirge Aue

LLLLL

Walang win sa last 5 matches

Result split ngayong season

16% W28% R56% P

Season record (W-D-L)

5-9-18

0.75 pts / match · goal difference -23

Last 5 (W-D-L)

0-0-5

0.00 pts / match

Record ng team sa home (W-D-L)

4-5-7

Last 5 sa home

0-1-4

DLLLL

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 1.4Goals na na-concede: 3.0xG: 1.43Opponent xG: 1.75BTTS: 80%Over 2.5: 80%

Verl

WWWLL

Result split ngayong season

47% W28% R25% P

Season record (W-D-L)

15-9-8

1.69 pts / match · goal difference +27

Last 5 (W-D-L)

3-0-2

1.80 pts / match

Record ng team sa away (W-D-L)

6-5-5

Last 5 sa away

1-1-3

LLDWL

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 2.0Goals na na-concede: 0.8xG: 1.95Opponent xG: 1.09BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 80%

Goals— paano nag-i-score at nagko-concede ang dalawang teams?

Ilang goals ang sini-score at kino-concede ng dalawang teams, pati kung gaano kadalas silang mag-clean sheet o hindi maka-score.

Verl ang 91% better sa: goals scored per match.

1.16 goals / match - Erzgebirge Aue · 2.22 goals / match - Verl

Verl ang 36% better sa: goals conceded per match.

1.88 goals / match - Erzgebirge Aue · 1.38 goals / match - Verl

Scoring profile ng Erzgebirge Aue: napakalakas

Nakaka-score ang Erzgebirge Aue sa 72% ng matches (23 sa 32 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Verl sa 22% (7 sa 32 matches).

Scoring profile ng Verl: napakalakas

Nakaka-score ang Verl sa 88% ng matches (28 sa 32 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Erzgebirge Aue sa 22% (7 sa 32 matches).

37Goals na na-score (season)71

Erzgebirge AueVerl

60Goals na na-concede (season)44

Erzgebirge AueVerl

3.03Average ng goals sa match3.59

Erzgebirge AueVerl

7Goals na na-score (last 5)10

Erzgebirge AueVerl

15Goals na na-concede (last 5)4

Erzgebirge AueVerl

Erzgebirge Aue

22%

Clean sheets7 sa 32 matches

28%

No goal9 sa 32 matches

Verl

22%

Clean sheets7 sa 32 matches

13%

No goal4 sa 32 matches

Gaano kadalas silang maka-score ng hindi bababa sa...

72%1 goal88%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

28%2 goals69%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

9%3 goals31%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

6%4 goals25%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

Gaano kadalas silang mag-concede ng hindi bababa sa...

78%1 goal78%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

63%2 goals47%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

34%3 goals9%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

9%4 goals3%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

* Kasama sa statistics ang home at away matches ng dalawang teams sa current season.

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)— gaano kadalas nakaka-score ang parehong teams?

Gaano kadalas may goals ang magkabilang panig sa matches ng teams, kumpara sa league average.

63%

Erzgebirge Aue - BTTS20 sa 32 matches

72%

Verl - BTTS23 sa 32 matches

64%

Average ng liga

Mga pattern ng goal

28%BTTS sa half-time28%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

9%BTTS sa parehong halves16%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

16%Naka-score sa parehong halves50%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

BTTS at goal count

56%Min. 3 goals at BTTS66%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

9%Min. 3 goals na walang BTTS13%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

80%BTTS - last 540%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

Mga goal line (Over/Under)— gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal lines ang kanilang matches?

Gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal thresholds ang matches ng teams, sa full match at bawat half.

Buong match - comparison ng teams (Over)

88%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)94%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

78%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)91%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

66%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)78%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

41%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)53%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

13%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)25%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

Over / Under - Erzgebirge Aue

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 88%Under 12%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 78%Under 22%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 66%Under 34%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 41%Under 59%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 13%Under 87%

Over / Under - Verl

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 94%Under 6%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 91%Under 9%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 78%Under 22%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 53%Under 47%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 25%Under 75%

1st half

81%Min. 1 goal bago ang half-time78%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

41%Min. 2 goals bago ang half-time50%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

9%Min. 3 goals bago ang half-time22%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

2nd half

78%Min. 1 goal pagkatapos ng half-time88%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

47%Min. 2 goals pagkatapos ng half-time63%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

28%Min. 3 goals pagkatapos ng half-time41%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

Mga half ng match— saang half mas madalas silang maka-score?

Paano nahahati sa first at second half ang performance: goals, points, clean sheets at state sa half-time.

Verl ang 61% better sa: form sa first half (half-time points).

1.03 pts / match - Erzgebirge Aue · 1.66 pts / match - Verl

Erzgebirge Aue - state sa half-time

22% nangunguna38% tabla41% nahuhuli

Verl - state sa half-time

44% nangunguna34% tabla22% nahuhuli

Bago ang half-time (1st half)

1.03Points bawat match (1st half)1.66

Erzgebirge AueVerl

0.53Goals na na-score (1st half)0.97

Erzgebirge AueVerl

0.88Goals na na-concede (1st half)0.56

Erzgebirge AueVerl

1.41Average ng goals (1st half)1.53

Erzgebirge AueVerl

38%Clean sheet bago ang half-time59%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

53%Walang goal bago ang half-time34%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

Pagkatapos ng half-time (2nd half)

1.13Points bawat match (2nd half)1.69

Erzgebirge AueVerl

0.63Goals na na-score (2nd half)1.25

Erzgebirge AueVerl

1Goals na na-concede (2nd half)0.81

Erzgebirge AueVerl

1.63Average ng goals (2nd half)2.06

Erzgebirge AueVerl

38%Clean sheet pagkatapos ng half-time41%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

59%Walang goal pagkatapos ng half-time28%

Erzgebirge AueVerl

Erzgebirge Aue - mga result sa second half

28% W28% R44% P

Half-time points

Half-time goals

-11

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

-12

Goal difference sa 2nd half

1.03

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding73%

Leading sa half-time sa 22% ng matches at nananalo sa 16%. Minsan nawawala ang lead pagkatapos ng half-time.

Defence after half-time+0.1

Nagko-concede ng 0.1 more goals per match pagkatapos ng half-time - bumababa ang defensive level sa second half.

Verl - mga result sa second half

47% W28% R25% P

Half-time points

Half-time goals

+13

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

+14

Goal difference sa 2nd half

1.66

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding107%

Leading sa half-time sa 44% ng matches at nananalo sa 47%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.3

Nagko-concede ng 0.3 more goals per match pagkatapos ng half-time - bumababa ang defensive level sa second half.

Erzgebirge Aue - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	0.60	1.20
Goals na na-score / match	0.6	0.8
Goals na na-concede / match	2.0	1.0
Average ng goals sa match	2.6	1.8
1 goal	100%	80%
2 goals	60%	80%
3 goals	40%	20%
Clean sheet	20%	20%
No goal	40%	40%
Goal difference	-7	-1

Half-time: 20% nangunguna - 0% tabla - 80% nahuhuli

2nd half: 20% panalo - 60% tabla - 20% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 40% - Total goals sa half-time: 3

Verl - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	2.00	1.40
Goals na na-score / match	1.2	0.8
Goals na na-concede / match	0.2	0.6
Average ng goals sa match	1.4	1.4
1 goal	80%	80%
2 goals	40%	40%
3 goals	20%	20%
Clean sheet	80%	60%
No goal	40%	60%
Goal difference	+5	+1

Half-time: 60% nangunguna - 20% tabla - 20% nahuhuli

2nd half: 40% panalo - 20% tabla - 40% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 0% - Total goals sa half-time: 6

* Ipinapakita ng colors sa tables ang event frequency: green ay common, yellow ay moderate, red ay rare. Frequency ito, hindi team rating.

Goals ayon sa minuto— kailan dumarating ang goals?

Mga phase ng match kung kailan pinakamadalas maka-score at mag-concede ang dalawang teams.

Erzgebirge Aue

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 76-90 (15). Balance ng late goals (76-90): -6 - mahina sa late phases.

Verl

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 76-90 (17 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 76-90 (12). Balance ng late goals (76-90): +5 - malakas sa late phases.

* Kasama sa buckets na 31-45 at 76-90 ang added-time goals.

Karagdagang team indicators— ano ang ipinapakita ng xG, efficiency at form?

Comparison ng chance quality, results at trends mula sa completed matches ngayong season.

Profile ng match

3.32

Estimated na goals

attack laban sa opponent defence

1.3 : 2.0

Estimated na hati ng goals

home : away

106%

Pace kumpara sa liga

100% = average ng liga

68%

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)

average mula sa seasons ng dalawang teams

-40%

Derby effect

H2H goals kumpara sa typical matches

63%

BTTS estimate

mula sa scoring frequency ng dalawang teams

0:0 risk

mga 1 sa bawat 25 matches

2-3

Pinakakaraniwang goal range

attack vs defence sa magkabilang panig

Erzgebirge Aue

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

-0.25

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

-0.47

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

-2.4 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

-0.32

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

-0.15

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

68%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

133%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

-0.75

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

+0.1

Mga late goal

24% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 8% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

24%

Verl

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

+0.58

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

+0.26

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

-15.4 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

+0.40

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

-0.14

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

157%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

81%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

+0.11

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

+0.3

Mga late goal

24% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 20% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

24%

* Ang estimated goals, goal split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk at goal range ay galing sa public season averages at frequencies ng dalawang teams. Statistical match profile ito, hindi private model prediction o betting pick. Ang iba pang indicators ay naglalarawan ng completed matches sa season.

Context ng liga— mataas ba ang scoring sa league na ito?

Paano nagko-compare ang dalawang teams sa league-wide averages ng 3. Liga.

Teams kumpara sa liga

	Erzgebirge Aue	Liga	Verl
Average ng goals sa match	▼ 3.03	3.13	▲ 3.59
Parehong teams naka-score	• 63%	64%	▲ 72%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)	▲ 66%	63%	▲ 78%
Clean sheets	• 22%	21%	• 22%
Goal bago ang half-time	▲ 81%	77%	• 78%
Goal pagkatapos ng half-time	▼ 78%	83%	▲ 88%

^ green = mas mataas sa league average, ˇ red = mas mababa sa league average. Direction ng gap ang ipinapakita nito, hindi team rating.

3.13

Average goals bawat match

64%

Parehong teams naka-score

63%

Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)

21%

Clean sheets

1.71

Home goals bawat match

1.41

Away goals bawat match

+21%

Advantage ng home attack

+18%

Advantage ng home defence

+16%

Kabuuang home advantage

Goals sa 1st half (buong liga)

77%

1 goal

42%

2 goals

13%

3 goals

4 goals

Goals sa 2nd half (buong liga)

83%

1 goal

53%

2 goals

28%

3 goals

12%

4 goals

Lineups at player events

Verified starters, substitutes at recorded events para sa match.

Home team

Starting lineup

1Martin Männel 7Erik Weinhauer⚽ 1 · lumabas 83'9Ricky Bornschein 11Eric Uhlmannlumabas 65'15Marcel Bärlumabas 83'16Ryan Malone 19Julian Guttaulumabas 65'20Jonah Fabisch 23Anthony Barylla🟨 1 · lumabas 65'25Tristan Zobel 30Moritz Seiffert

Substitutes

5Luan Simnicapumasok 65'8Mika Clausenpumasok 1'10Julian Günther Schmidtpumasok 83'13Erik Majetschakpumasok 65'22Louis Lordpumasok 1'24Jannic Ehlerspumasok 65'

27Finn Hetzschpumasok 1'

39Maximilian Schmidpumasok 83'45Vincent Ocanseypumasok 1'

Away team

Starting lineup

1Philipp Schulze 5Martin Ens 6Joshua Chima Ezelumabas 77'8Dennis Waidner 10Berkan Taz⚽ 1 11Marco WörnerA 1 · lumabas 77'18Fabian Wessiglumabas 63'19Niko Kijewski 20Oualid Mhamdi 28Yari Ottolumabas 51'34Fynn Otto

Substitutes

7Julian Stark🟨 1 · pumasok 51'9Jonas Arweilerpumasok 63'13Alem Japaurpumasok 77'17Almin Mesanovicpumasok 77'21Tobias-Mbunjiro Knostpumasok 1'24Michel Stöckerpumasok 1'26António Fótipumasok 1'

32Fabian Pekruhlpumasok 1'

Timeline ng match

Mga goal, card at substitution ayon sa pagkakasunod ng oras.

4'
VerlGoalBerkan TazAssist: Marco Wörner
46'
Erzgebirge AueYellow cardAnthony Barylla
51'
VerlSubstitutionPumasok: Julian StarkLumabas: Yari Otto
63'
VerlSubstitutionPumasok: Jonas ArweilerLumabas: Fabian Wessig
64'
Erzgebirge AueGoalErik Weinhauer
81'
VerlYellow cardJulian Stark

Referee at coaches

Buksan ang season profiles para makita ang match record, goals at discipline trends.

RefereeBen Henry Uhrig Away coachTobias Strobl

Konteksto ng referee

Season averages at hatian ng resulta sa mga match na hinawakan ng referee na ito.

Ben Henry UhrigMatches officiated: 10

4.5Cards kada match

0Penalties kada match

1 / X / 240%Home wins40%Draws20%Away wins

Head-to-head

Nakaraang meeting: Erzgebirge Aue 0 - 1 - 0 Verl. Average ng goals 2.00, both teams scored sa 100% matches.

SC Verl 1924

1 : 111/08/2025

FC Erzgebirge Aue

Mga madalas itanong

Ano ang result ng Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl?

Natapos ang 3. Liga match sa score na Erzgebirge Aue 1:1 Verl. Nasa page na ito ang match statistics, half-by-half data at head-to-head record.

Ano ang ipinapakita ng goal statistics bago ang Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl?

Erzgebirge Aue scores 1.16 goals per match at Verl 2.22. Ang 3. Liga average ay 3.13 goals, may Over 2.5 sa 63% ng matches. BTTS: Erzgebirge Aue 63%, Verl 72%.

Ano ang current form ng Erzgebirge Aue at Verl?

Sa last 5 matches, ang Erzgebirge Aue ay 0-0-5 (0.00 points per match), habang ang Verl ay 3-0-2 (1.80 points per match).

Saan makikita ang betting pick at full analysis ng Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl?

Nasa page na ito ang statistical context: form, H2H, goals, BTTS at Over/Under. Makikita sa NoFluffPicks app ang betting pick, value bet at full reasoning.