England - Premier LeagueUpdated ang data noong September 12, 2026

Everton vs Manchester City: mga stats ng match

Everton crest
Everton
3 : 3half-time 0:1
Manchester City crest
Manchester City

Everton vs Manchester City: form, goals at mahahalagang stats

Mahahalagang detalye ng match

Naglaro ang Everton laban sa Manchester City sa Premier League (England). Nilaro ang match noong 4 May 2026. Final score: 3:3.

Current na form

Everton: 1-1-3 sa last five matches at 0.80 points per match. Manchester City: 3-2-0 at 2.20 points per match.

Stats ng goals

Everton ay may 1.21 goals na na-score at 1.21 na na-concede bawat match. Ang Manchester City naman ay may 2.00 na na-score at 0.88 na na-concede. Average ng liga: 2.75 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Everton 47%, Manchester City 48%. Over 2.5: Everton 41%, Manchester City 61%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 55%.

xG, shots at style ng laro

Manchester City ang may mas mataas na xG per match: 1.79 vs 1.30. May average na 11.0 shots bawat match ang Everton, habang 15.2 naman ang Manchester City.

First at second half

Nangunguna ang Everton sa half-time sa 38% ng matches at nakaka-score ng 0.71 goals pagkatapos ng break. Para sa Manchester City, 64% at 0.88 ang mga value.

Goals ayon sa minuto

Everton: 76-90+ (14 goals). Manchester City: 31-45+ (19 goals). Historical goal distribution ito, hindi prediction ng exact goal minute.

Context ng liga

Premier League: 2.75 goals per match, BTTS 55% at Over 2.5 55%.

Head-to-head record

Bago ang match na ito, may 1 previous head-to-head matches sa database. Ang record ay 0-0-1, average goals 2.00, at BTTS 0%.

Archived na pre-match analysis

Ginawa ang analysis na ito bago ang kick-off. Ang conclusions ay base lang sa data na available bago ang match at hindi kasama ang final result o post-match statistics.

General match analysis

Manchester City ay malinaw na favorite: sa huling 5 matches nanalo sila ng 5/5, nag-scoreng 12 goals at nag-konced 2 lang, habang si Everton sa parehong period may record na 1-1-3, 7 scored at 8 conceded at average na 0.8 points per match. Sa season City may 66 goals vs 41 ng Everton, at away goals per match ng City ay 1.65 vs 1.29 ng Everton sa home, kaya advantage ang guests sa offensive efficiency. Ang City ay nagge-generate ng 1.69 xG on the road with 14.59 shots at 4.71 shots on target, Everton naman 1.47 xG at home with 12.24 shots at 4.24 SoT, ibig sabihin City ang naghahandle ng more at better chances. Sa defense, Manchester City concedes on average 1.0 goal away (xG against 1.2) vs 1.24 conceded ng Everton at home (xG against 1.3), at clean sheet rate 41% vs 35%, na nagpapakita ng greater stability ng guests. Considering form, higher xG (1.69 vs 1.47), greater possession (61% vs 47%) at better recent goal differential, nire-recommend ko win para sa Manchester City; probabilities ko: 75% para sa away, 15% draw at 10% para sa Everton.

Tingnan ang statistical overview

Ayon sa half

0 : 1
1st half
3 : 2
2nd half

Stats ng match

25Possession (%)75
EvertonManchester City
14Shots21
EvertonManchester City
6Shots on target4
EvertonManchester City
1.47xG2.29
EvertonManchester City
5Corners9
EvertonManchester City
23Dangerous attacks95
EvertonManchester City
15Fouls5
EvertonManchester City
4Cards1
EvertonManchester City

Pre-match na profile— ano ang sinasabi ng season numbers?

Team profile ito batay sa season data at form. Lalabas lang ang match-flow statistics kapag tapos na ang fixture.

1.38Points bawat matchPPG - points per match.2.12
EvertonManchester City
1.21Goals na na-score / match2
EvertonManchester City
1.21Goals na na-concede / match0.88
EvertonManchester City
1.3xG forxG - expected goals o quality ng scoring chances.1.79
EvertonManchester City
44%Average na possession60%
EvertonManchester City
3.68Shots on target bawat match5.42
EvertonManchester City
32%Clean sheetsClean sheet - match na walang conceded goal.42%
EvertonManchester City
47%Parehong teams naka-scoreBTTS - percentage ng matches kung saan naka-score ang parehong teams.48%
EvertonManchester City

Stats ng teams— alin ang mas efficient na team?

Comparison ng attack at defence ng dalawang teams sa current season.

11.03Shots bawat match15.24
EvertonManchester City
3.68Shots on target5.42
EvertonManchester City
10.9%Shot conversion13.1%
EvertonManchester City
44%Possession60%
EvertonManchester City
1.3xG for1.79
EvertonManchester City
1.52xG against1.12
EvertonManchester City

Quality ng shooting

Everton: Balanced ang styleManchester City: Dominant
EvertonManchester City
Accuracy ng shots on target33%36%
Quality ng chances (xG bawat shot)0.120.12
Finishing (goals bawat shot on target)0.330.37

Kapag nasa 0.08 ang xG per shot, kadalasan long-range attempts iyon; ang 0.15+ ay karaniwang chances sa box. Galing sa possession, shot volume at conversion ang style label.

* Ipinapakita ng xG (expected goals) kung ilang goals ang inaasahang makuha ng team mula sa chances nito. Kapag mas mataas ang actual goals kaysa xG, above average ang finishing; kapag mas mababa, may missed chances.

Form ng teams— alin ang mas maganda ang current form?

Last five matches at season record, overall at may home-away split.

Manchester City ang 175% better sa: form sa last 5 matches.

0.8 pts / match - Everton · 2.2 pts / match - Manchester City

Everton
LWDLL
Result split ngayong season
38% W24% D38% L
Season record (W-D-L)
13-8-13
1.38 pts / match · goal difference 0
Last 5 (W-D-L)
1-1-3
0.80 pts / match
Record ng team sa home (W-D-L)
6-4-7
Last 5 sa home
2-0-3
LLWWL
Averages sa last 5 matches
Goals na na-score: 1.4Goals na na-concede: 1.6xG: 1.34Opponent xG: 1.74BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 80%
Manchester City
DDWWW
Unbeaten sa last 5 matches
Result split ngayong season
64% W21% D15% L
Season record (W-D-L)
21-7-5
2.12 pts / match · goal difference +37
Last 5 (W-D-L)
3-2-0
2.20 pts / match
Record ng team sa away (W-D-L)
9-4-4
Last 5 sa away
4-1-0
WWDWW
Averages sa last 5 matches
Goals na na-score: 1.8Goals na na-concede: 0.8xG: 2.42Opponent xG: 0.87BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 60%

Goals— paano nag-i-score at nagko-concede ang dalawang teams?

Ilang goals ang sini-score at kino-concede ng dalawang teams, pati kung gaano kadalas silang mag-clean sheet o hindi maka-score.

Manchester City ang 65% better sa: goals scored per match.

1.21 goals / match - Everton · 2 goals / match - Manchester City

Manchester City ang 38% better sa: goals conceded per match.

1.21 goals / match - Everton · 0.88 goals / match - Manchester City

Scoring profile ng Everton: malakas

Nakaka-score ang Everton sa 74% ng matches (25 sa 34 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Manchester City sa 42% (14 sa 33 matches).

Scoring profile ng Manchester City: napakalakas

Nakaka-score ang Manchester City sa 88% ng matches (29 sa 33 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Everton sa 32% (11 sa 34 matches).

41Goals na na-score (season)66
EvertonManchester City
41Goals na na-concede (season)29
EvertonManchester City
2.41Average ng goals sa match2.88
EvertonManchester City
7Goals na na-score (last 5)9
EvertonManchester City
8Goals na na-concede (last 5)4
EvertonManchester City
Everton
32%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - match na walang conceded goal.11 sa 34 matches
26%
No goalFailed to score - match kung saan hindi naka-score ang team.9 sa 34 matches
Manchester City
42%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - match na walang conceded goal.14 sa 33 matches
12%
No goalFailed to score - match kung saan hindi naka-score ang team.4 sa 33 matches

Gaano kadalas silang maka-score ng hindi bababa sa...

74%1 goal88%
EvertonManchester City
35%2 goals61%
EvertonManchester City
12%3 goals36%
EvertonManchester City
0%4 goals9%
EvertonManchester City

Gaano kadalas silang mag-concede ng hindi bababa sa...

68%1 goal58%
EvertonManchester City
38%2 goals24%
EvertonManchester City
9%3 goals3%
EvertonManchester City
6%4 goals3%
EvertonManchester City

* Kasama sa statistics ang home at away matches ng dalawang teams sa current season.

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)— gaano kadalas nakaka-score ang parehong teams?

Gaano kadalas may goals ang magkabilang panig sa matches ng teams, kumpara sa league average.

47%
Everton - BTTSBTTS - percentage ng matches kung saan naka-score ang parehong teams.16 sa 34 matches
48%
Manchester City - BTTSBTTS - percentage ng matches kung saan naka-score ang parehong teams.16 sa 33 matches
55%
Average ng liga

Mga pattern ng goal

9%BTTS sa half-time18%
EvertonManchester City
9%BTTS sa parehong halves3%
EvertonManchester City
26%Naka-score sa parehong halves36%
EvertonManchester City

BTTS at goal count

32%Min. 3 goals at BTTS36%
EvertonManchester City
9%Min. 3 goals na walang BTTS24%
EvertonManchester City
60%BTTS - last 560%
EvertonManchester City

Mga goal line (Over/Under)— gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal lines ang kanilang matches?

Gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal thresholds ang matches ng teams, sa full match at bawat half.

Buong match - comparison ng teams (Over)

94%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)Over 0.5 - may hindi bababa sa isang goal sa match.97%
EvertonManchester City
76%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)Over 1.5 - may hindi bababa sa dalawang goals sa match.85%
EvertonManchester City
41%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)Over 2.5 - may hindi bababa sa tatlong goals sa match.61%
EvertonManchester City
15%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)Over 3.5 - may hindi bababa sa apat na goals sa match.21%
EvertonManchester City
12%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)Over 4.5 - may hindi bababa sa limang goals sa match.9%
EvertonManchester City

Over / Under - Everton

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - may hindi bababa sa isang goal sa match.
Over 94%Under 6%
Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - may hindi bababa sa dalawang goals sa match.
Over 76%Under 24%
Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - may hindi bababa sa tatlong goals sa match.
Over 41%Under 59%
Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - may hindi bababa sa apat na goals sa match.
Over 15%Under 85%
Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - may hindi bababa sa limang goals sa match.
Over 12%Under 88%

Over / Under - Manchester City

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - may hindi bababa sa isang goal sa match.
Over 97%Under 3%
Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - may hindi bababa sa dalawang goals sa match.
Over 85%Under 15%
Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - may hindi bababa sa tatlong goals sa match.
Over 61%Under 39%
Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - may hindi bababa sa apat na goals sa match.
Over 21%Under 79%
Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - may hindi bababa sa limang goals sa match.
Over 9%Under 91%

1st half

71%Min. 1 goal bago ang half-time79%
EvertonManchester City
24%Min. 2 goals bago ang half-time45%
EvertonManchester City
9%Min. 3 goals bago ang half-time12%
EvertonManchester City

2nd half

85%Min. 1 goal pagkatapos ng half-time70%
EvertonManchester City
41%Min. 2 goals pagkatapos ng half-time45%
EvertonManchester City
6%Min. 3 goals pagkatapos ng half-time24%
EvertonManchester City

Mga half ng match— saang half mas madalas silang maka-score?

Paano nahahati sa first at second half ang performance: goals, points, clean sheets at state sa half-time.

Manchester City ang 50% better sa: form sa first half (half-time points).

1.47 pts / match - Everton · 2.21 pts / match - Manchester City

Everton - state sa half-time
38% nangunguna32% tabla29% nahuhuli
Manchester City - state sa half-time
64% nangunguna30% tabla6% nahuhuli

Bago ang half-time (1st half)

1.47Points bawat match (1st half)2.21
EvertonManchester City
0.5Goals na na-score (1st half)1.12
EvertonManchester City
0.53Goals na na-concede (1st half)0.27
EvertonManchester City
1.03Average ng goals (1st half)1.39
EvertonManchester City
62%Clean sheet bago ang half-time76%
EvertonManchester City
59%Walang goal bago ang half-time27%
EvertonManchester City

Pagkatapos ng half-time (2nd half)

1.38Points bawat match (2nd half)1.48
EvertonManchester City
0.71Goals na na-score (2nd half)0.88
EvertonManchester City
0.68Goals na na-concede (2nd half)0.61
EvertonManchester City
1.38Average ng goals (2nd half)1.48
EvertonManchester City
50%Clean sheet pagkatapos ng half-time64%
EvertonManchester City
41%Walang goal pagkatapos ng half-time48%
EvertonManchester City

Everton - mga result sa second half

35% W32% D32% L
50
Half-time points
17
Half-time goals
-1
Goal difference sa 1st half
47
Second-half points
+1
Goal difference sa 2nd half
1.47
PPG bago ang half-time
Lead holding100%

Leading sa half-time sa 38% ng matches at nananalo sa 38%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.2

Nagko-concede ng 0.2 more goals per match pagkatapos ng half-time - bumababa ang defensive level sa second half.

Manchester City - mga result sa second half

39% W30% D30% L
73
Half-time points
37
Half-time goals
+28
Goal difference sa 1st half
49
Second-half points
+9
Goal difference sa 2nd half
2.21
PPG bago ang half-time
Lead holding100%

Leading sa half-time sa 64% ng matches at nananalo sa 64%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.3

Nagko-concede ng 0.3 more goals per match pagkatapos ng half-time - bumababa ang defensive level sa second half.

Everton - last 5 matches per half
1st half2nd half
Points bawat match1.201.00
Goals na na-score / match0.41.0
Goals na na-concede / match0.41.2
Average ng goals sa match0.82.2
1 goal60%100%
2 goals20%100%
3 goals0%20%
Clean sheet60%20%
No goal60%20%
Goal difference0-1
Half-time: 20% nangunguna - 60% tabla - 20% nahuhuli
2nd half: 20% panalo - 40% tabla - 40% talo
BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 20% - Total goals sa half-time: 2
Manchester City - last 5 matches per half
1st half2nd half
Points bawat match1.801.60
Goals na na-score / match0.81.0
Goals na na-concede / match0.40.4
Average ng goals sa match1.21.4
1 goal80%60%
2 goals40%40%
3 goals0%40%
Clean sheet60%80%
No goal20%40%
Goal difference+2+3
Half-time: 40% nangunguna - 60% tabla - 0% nahuhuli
2nd half: 40% panalo - 40% tabla - 20% talo
BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 40% - Total goals sa half-time: 4

* Ipinapakita ng colors sa tables ang event frequency: green ay common, yellow ay moderate, red ay rare. Frequency ito, hindi team rating.

Goals ayon sa minuto— kailan dumarating ang goals?

Mga phase ng match kung kailan pinakamadalas maka-score at mag-concede ang dalawang teams.

Everton
Na-scoreNa-concede
3
4
0-15
7
9
16-30
7
5
31-45
6
6
46-60
4
7
61-75
14
10
76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 76-90 (10). Balance ng late goals (76-90): +4 - malakas sa late phases.

Manchester City
Na-scoreNa-concede
9
0
0-15
9
4
16-30
19
5
31-45
8
6
46-60
13
8
61-75
8
6
76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 31-45 (19 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 61-75 (8). Balance ng late goals (76-90): +2 - malakas sa late phases.

* Kasama sa buckets na 31-45 at 76-90 ang added-time goals.

Karagdagang team indicators— ano ang ipinapakita ng xG, efficiency at form?

Comparison ng chance quality, results at trends mula sa completed matches ngayong season.

Profile ng match

2.65
Estimated na goals
attack laban sa opponent defence
1.0 : 1.6
Estimated na hati ng goals
home : away
96%
Pace kumpara sa liga
100% = average ng liga
48%
Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)
average mula sa seasons ng dalawang teams
-24%
Derby effect
H2H goals kumpara sa typical matches
65%
BTTS estimate
mula sa scoring frequency ng dalawang teams
3%
0:0 risk
mga 1 sa bawat 33 matches
2-3
Pinakakaraniwang goal range
attack vs defence sa magkabilang panig

Everton

Net xG balance
Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.
-0.22
Results kumpara sa xG
Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.
+0.22
Points kumpara sa goal balance
Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.
-4.0 pts
Efficiency ng finishing
Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.
-0.09
Efficiency ng defence
Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.
+0.31
Attack vs league
Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.
80%
Defence vs league
Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.
98%
Trend ng form
Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.
-0.58
Mas malakas sa second half?
Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.
+0.2
Mga late goal
34% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 7% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.
34%

Manchester City

Net xG balance
Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.
+0.67
Results kumpara sa xG
Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.
+0.45
Points kumpara sa goal balance
Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.
-13.0 pts
Efficiency ng finishing
Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.
+0.21
Efficiency ng defence
Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.
+0.24
Attack vs league
Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.
163%
Defence vs league
Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.
58%
Trend ng form
Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.
+0.08
Mas malakas sa second half?
Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.
-0.2
Mga late goal
12% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 14% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.
12%

* Ang estimated goals, goal split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk at goal range ay galing sa public season averages at frequencies ng dalawang teams. Statistical match profile ito, hindi private model prediction o betting pick. Ang iba pang indicators ay naglalarawan ng completed matches sa season.

Context ng liga— mataas ba ang scoring sa league na ito?

Paano nagko-compare ang dalawang teams sa league-wide averages ng Premier League.

Teams kumpara sa liga

EvertonLigaManchester City
Average ng goals sa match▼ 2.412.75▲ 2.88
Parehong teams naka-score▼ 47%55%▼ 48%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▼ 41%55%▲ 61%
Clean sheets▲ 32%26%▲ 42%
Goal bago ang half-time• 71%72%▲ 79%
Goal pagkatapos ng half-time▲ 85%79%▼ 70%

^ green = mas mataas sa league average, ˇ red = mas mababa sa league average. Direction ng gap ang ipinapakita nito, hindi team rating.

2.75
Average goals bawat match
55%
Parehong teams naka-score
55%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
26%
Clean sheets
1.52
Home goals bawat match
1.23
Away goals bawat match
+24%
Advantage ng home attack
+19%
Advantage ng home defence
+12%
Kabuuang home advantage
Goals sa 1st half (buong liga)
72%
1 goal
34%
2 goals
12%
3 goals
3%
4 goals
Goals sa 2nd half (buong liga)
79%
1 goal
47%
2 goals
20%
3 goals
7%
4 goals

Lineups at player events

Verified starters, substitutes at recorded events para sa match.

Home team

Away team

Timeline ng match

Mga goal, card at substitution ayon sa pagkakasunod ng oras.

  1. Manchester CityGoalJérémy Baffour DokuAssist: Mathis Ryan Cherki
  2. EvertonYellow cardMichael Vincent Keane
  3. EvertonYellow cardNorberto Bercique Gomes Betuncal
  4. EvertonYellow cardJames Alan Tarkowski
  5. EvertonSubstitutionPumasok: Thiemo BarryLumabas: Norberto Bercique Gomes Betuncal
  6. EvertonGoalThiemo Barry
  7. EvertonGoalJake O´BrienAssist: James David Garner
  8. Manchester CityYellow cardGianluigi Donnarumma
  9. Manchester CitySubstitutionPumasok: Philip Walter FodenLumabas: Antoine Semenyo
  10. Manchester CitySubstitutionPumasok: Mateo KovačićLumabas: Nicolás González Iglesias
  11. EvertonGoalThiemo BarryAssist: Merlin Röhl
  12. Manchester CityGoalErling Braut HaalandAssist: Mateo Kovačić
  13. EvertonYellow cardJake O´Brien
  14. Manchester CitySubstitutionPumasok: Omar MarmoushLumabas: Bernardo Mota Veiga de Carvalho e Silva
  15. Manchester CityGoalJérémy Baffour DokuAssist: Addji Keaninkin Marc-Israel Guu00e9hi

Referee at coaches

Buksan ang season profiles para makita ang match record, goals at discipline trends.

RefereeMichael OliverHome coachDavid MoyesAway coachJosep Guardiola i Sala

Konteksto ng referee

Season averages at hatian ng resulta sa mga match na hinawakan ng referee na ito.

Michael OliverMatches officiated: 29
3.17Cards kada match
0Penalties kada match
1 / X / 238%Home wins24%Draws38%Away wins

Head-to-head

Nakaraang meeting: Everton 0 - 0 - 1 Manchester City. Average ng goals 2.00, both teams scored sa 0% matches.

Manchester City FC
2 : 0
Everton FC

Mga madalas itanong

Ano ang result ng Everton vs Manchester City?

Natapos ang Premier League match sa score na Everton 3:3 Manchester City. Nasa page na ito ang match statistics, half-by-half data at head-to-head record.

Ano ang ipinapakita ng goal statistics bago ang Everton vs Manchester City?

Everton scores 1.21 goals per match at Manchester City 2.00. Ang Premier League average ay 2.75 goals, may Over 2.5 sa 55% ng matches. BTTS: Everton 47%, Manchester City 48%.

Ano ang current form ng Everton at Manchester City?

Sa last 5 matches, ang Everton ay 1-1-3 (0.80 points per match), habang ang Manchester City ay 3-2-0 (2.20 points per match).

Saan makikita ang betting pick at full analysis ng Everton vs Manchester City?

Nasa page na ito ang statistical context: form, H2H, goals, BTTS at Over/Under. Makikita sa NoFluffPicks app ang betting pick, value bet at full reasoning.