United States - USL Championship04/18/2026, 09:00 PMUpdated ang data noong September 07, 2026

Louisville City vs Sporting JAX: mga stats ng match

1 : 0half-time 0:0

Louisville City vs Sporting JAX: form, goals at mahahalagang stats

Mahahalagang detalye ng match

Naglaro ang Louisville City laban sa Sporting JAX sa USL Championship (United States). Nilaro ang match noong 18 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.

Current na form

Louisville City: 3-1-1 sa last five matches at 2.00 points per match. Sporting JAX: 0-1-4 at 0.20 points per match.

Stats ng goals

Louisville City ay may 2.33 goals na na-score at 1.50 na na-concede bawat match. Ang Sporting JAX naman ay may 0.83 na na-score at 2.17 na na-concede. Average ng liga: 2.55 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Louisville City 67%, Sporting JAX 50%. Over 2.5: Louisville City 67%, Sporting JAX 50%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 49%.

xG, shots at style ng laro

Louisville City ang may mas mataas na xG per match: 1.92 vs 1.10. May average na 15.7 shots bawat match ang Louisville City, habang 9.3 naman ang Sporting JAX.

First at second half

Nangunguna ang Louisville City sa half-time sa 17% ng matches at nakaka-score ng 1.33 goals pagkatapos ng break. Para sa Sporting JAX, 17% at 0.50 ang mga value.

Goals ayon sa minuto

Louisville City: 16-30 (5 goals). Sporting JAX: 0-15 (1 goals). Historical goal distribution ito, hindi prediction ng exact goal minute.

Context ng liga

USL Championship: 2.55 goals per match, BTTS 51% at Over 2.5 49%.

Head-to-head record

Wala pang sapat na head-to-head sample para gawing pangunahing comparison.

Archived na pre-match analysis

Ginawa ang analysis na ito bago ang kick-off. Ang conclusions ay base lang sa data na available bago ang match at hindi kasama ang final result o post-match statistics.

General match analysis

Louisville City ang clear favorite: sa home record nila 4-1-1 (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; 67% wins) at nakapuntos ng 14 goals sa season, ibig sabihin 2.67 goals per home match with xG 2.02. Sporting JAX is 25th sa table at sa away form nila 0-1-5 (0 wins), nag-aaverage ng 1.0 goal per away match at nagge-generate lang ng 0.96 xG per game; sa last 5 matches away team may record na 0-1-4 at average lang 0.2 points per match. Malaki ang difference sa chance creation: hosts average 16.67 shots at 5.67 on target sa home, kontra 6.67 shots at 3.33 on target ang visitors sa away; with similar conversion (16% vs 15%) ibig sabihin mas maraming real goal-scoring opportunities para sa Louisville. Kahit parehong nagde-devide ng 1.67 goals conceded per match, xG against is 0.96 for hosts vs 1.77 for visitors, at sa last 5 games visitors conceded 10 goals vs 6 conceded ng hosts—nagpapakita ng weaker defensive quality ng Sporting JAX. Considering advantage sa xG (2.02 vs 0.96), shots (16.67 vs 6.67) at form (hosts 2 points avg sa last 5 vs 0.2 for visitors), nire-rate ko win para sa home team.

Tingnan ang statistical overview

Ayon sa half

0 : 0

1st half

1 : 0

2nd half

Stats ng match

65Possession (%)35

Louisville CitySporting JAX

23Shots2

Louisville CitySporting JAX

7Shots on target0

Louisville CitySporting JAX

2.36xG0.27

Louisville CitySporting JAX

8Corners2

Louisville CitySporting JAX

60Dangerous attacks19

Louisville CitySporting JAX

9Fouls13

Louisville CitySporting JAX

0Cards4

Louisville CitySporting JAX

Pre-match na profile— ano ang sinasabi ng season numbers?

Team profile ito batay sa season data at form. Lalabas lang ang match-flow statistics kapag tapos na ang fixture.

2.17Points bawat match0.17

Louisville CitySporting JAX

2.33Goals na na-score / match0.83

Louisville CitySporting JAX

1.5Goals na na-concede / match2.17

Louisville CitySporting JAX

1.92xG for1.1

Louisville CitySporting JAX

54%Average na possession48%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

5Shots on target bawat match3.17

Louisville CitySporting JAX

17%Clean sheets0%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

67%Parehong teams naka-score50%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

Stats ng teams— alin ang mas efficient na team?

Comparison ng attack at defence ng dalawang teams sa current season.

15.67Shots bawat match9.33

Louisville CitySporting JAX

5Shots on target3.17

Louisville CitySporting JAX

14.9%Shot conversion8.9%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

54%Possession48%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

1.92xG for1.1

Louisville CitySporting JAX

1.1xG against1.71

Louisville CitySporting JAX

Quality ng shooting

Louisville City: Attacking ang styleSporting JAX: Balanced ang style

	Louisville City	Sporting JAX
Accuracy ng shots on target	32%	34%
Quality ng chances (xG bawat shot)	0.12	0.12
Finishing (goals bawat shot on target)	0.47	0.26

Kapag nasa 0.08 ang xG per shot, kadalasan long-range attempts iyon; ang 0.15+ ay karaniwang chances sa box. Galing sa possession, shot volume at conversion ang style label.

* Ipinapakita ng xG (expected goals) kung ilang goals ang inaasahang makuha ng team mula sa chances nito. Kapag mas mataas ang actual goals kaysa xG, above average ang finishing; kapag mas mababa, may missed chances.

Form ng teams— alin ang mas maganda ang current form?

Last five matches at season record, overall at may home-away split.

Louisville City ang 900% better sa: form sa last 5 matches.

2 pts / match - Louisville City · 0.2 pts / match - Sporting JAX

Louisville City

WWWLD

Result split ngayong season

67% W17% R17% P

Season record (W-D-L)

4-1-1

2.17 pts / match · goal difference +5

Last 5 (W-D-L)

3-1-1

2.00 pts / match

Record ng team sa home (W-D-L)

2-0-1

Last 5 sa home

2-0-1

WWL

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 2.4Goals na na-concede: 1.6xG: 1.96Opponent xG: 1.10BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 60%

Sporting JAX

DLLLL

Walang win sa last 5 matches

Result split ngayong season

0% W17% R83% P

Season record (W-D-L)

0-1-5

0.17 pts / match · goal difference -8

Last 5 (W-D-L)

0-1-4

0.20 pts / match

Record ng team sa away (W-D-L)

0-1-2

Last 5 sa away

0-1-2

DLL

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 1.0Goals na na-concede: 2.0xG: 1.04Opponent xG: 1.71BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 40%

Goals— paano nag-i-score at nagko-concede ang dalawang teams?

Ilang goals ang sini-score at kino-concede ng dalawang teams, pati kung gaano kadalas silang mag-clean sheet o hindi maka-score.

Louisville City ang 181% better sa: goals scored per match.

2.33 goals / match - Louisville City · 0.83 goals / match - Sporting JAX

Louisville City ang 45% better sa: goals conceded per match.

1.5 goals / match - Louisville City · 2.17 goals / match - Sporting JAX

Scoring profile ng Louisville City: napakalakas

Nakaka-score ang Louisville City sa 83% ng matches (5 sa 6 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Sporting JAX sa 0% (0 sa 6 matches).

Scoring profile ng Sporting JAX: malakas

Nakaka-score ang Sporting JAX sa 50% ng matches (3 sa 6 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Louisville City sa 17% (1 sa 6 matches).

14Goals na na-score (season)5

Louisville CitySporting JAX

9Goals na na-concede (season)13

Louisville CitySporting JAX

3.83Average ng goals sa match3

Louisville CitySporting JAX

12Goals na na-score (last 5)5

Louisville CitySporting JAX

8Goals na na-concede (last 5)10

Louisville CitySporting JAX

Louisville City

17%

Clean sheets1 sa 6 matches

17%

No goal1 sa 6 matches

Sporting JAX

Clean sheets0 sa 6 matches

50%

No goal3 sa 6 matches

Gaano kadalas silang maka-score ng hindi bababa sa...

83%1 goal50%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

67%2 goals33%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

50%3 goals0%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

33%4 goals0%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

Gaano kadalas silang mag-concede ng hindi bababa sa...

83%1 goal100%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

50%2 goals50%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

17%3 goals50%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

0%4 goals17%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

* Kasama sa statistics ang home at away matches ng dalawang teams sa current season.

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)— gaano kadalas nakaka-score ang parehong teams?

Gaano kadalas may goals ang magkabilang panig sa matches ng teams, kumpara sa league average.

67%

Louisville City - BTTS4 sa 6 matches

50%

Sporting JAX - BTTS3 sa 6 matches

51%

Average ng liga

Mga pattern ng goal

50%BTTS sa half-time17%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

33%BTTS sa parehong halves0%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

50%Naka-score sa parehong halves0%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

BTTS at goal count

67%Min. 3 goals at BTTS33%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

0%Min. 3 goals na walang BTTS17%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

60%BTTS - last 560%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

Mga goal line (Over/Under)— gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal lines ang kanilang matches?

Gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal thresholds ang matches ng teams, sa full match at bawat half.

Buong match - comparison ng teams (Over)

100%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)100%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

83%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)67%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

67%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)50%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

50%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)33%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

50%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)33%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

Over / Under - Louisville City

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 100%Under 0%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 83%Under 17%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 67%Under 33%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 50%Under 50%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 50%Under 50%

Over / Under - Sporting JAX

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 100%Under 0%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 67%Under 33%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 50%Under 50%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 33%Under 67%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 33%Under 67%

1st half

83%Min. 1 goal bago ang half-time67%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

50%Min. 2 goals bago ang half-time33%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

33%Min. 3 goals bago ang half-time17%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

2nd half

100%Min. 1 goal pagkatapos ng half-time83%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

50%Min. 2 goals pagkatapos ng half-time67%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

17%Min. 3 goals pagkatapos ng half-time33%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

Mga half ng match— saang half mas madalas silang maka-score?

Paano nahahati sa first at second half ang performance: goals, points, clean sheets at state sa half-time.

Louisville City ang 20% better sa: form sa first half (half-time points).

1 pts / match - Louisville City · 0.83 pts / match - Sporting JAX

Louisville City - state sa half-time

17% nangunguna50% tabla33% nahuhuli

Sporting JAX - state sa half-time

17% nangunguna33% tabla50% nahuhuli

Bago ang half-time (1st half)

1Points bawat match (1st half)0.83

Louisville CitySporting JAX

1Goals na na-score (1st half)0.33

Louisville CitySporting JAX

1Goals na na-concede (1st half)0.83

Louisville CitySporting JAX

2Average ng goals (1st half)1.17

Louisville CitySporting JAX

17%Clean sheet bago ang half-time33%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

50%Walang goal bago ang half-time83%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

Pagkatapos ng half-time (2nd half)

2.17Points bawat match (2nd half)0.83

Louisville CitySporting JAX

1.33Goals na na-score (2nd half)0.5

Louisville CitySporting JAX

0.5Goals na na-concede (2nd half)1.33

Louisville CitySporting JAX

1.83Average ng goals (2nd half)1.83

Louisville CitySporting JAX

50%Clean sheet pagkatapos ng half-time17%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

17%Walang goal pagkatapos ng half-time67%

Louisville CitySporting JAX

Louisville City - mga result sa second half

67% W17% R17% P

Half-time points

Half-time goals

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

Goal difference sa 2nd half

1.00

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding394%

Leading sa half-time sa 17% ng matches at nananalo sa 67%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time-0.5

Stable ang defence sa buong match.

Sporting JAX - mga result sa second half

17% W33% R50% P

Half-time points

Half-time goals

-3

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

-5

Goal difference sa 2nd half

0.83

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding0%

Leading sa half-time sa 17% ng matches at nananalo sa 0%. Minsan nawawala ang lead pagkatapos ng half-time.

Defence after half-time+0.5

Nagko-concede ng 0.5 more goals per match pagkatapos ng half-time - bumababa ang defensive level sa second half.

Louisville City - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	1.20	2.00
Goals na na-score / match	1.2	1.2
Goals na na-concede / match	1.0	0.6
Average ng goals sa match	2.2	1.8
1 goal	80%	100%
2 goals	60%	40%
3 goals	40%	20%
Clean sheet	20%	40%
No goal	40%	20%
Goal difference	+1	+3

Half-time: 20% nangunguna - 60% tabla - 20% nahuhuli

2nd half: 60% panalo - 20% tabla - 20% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 60% - Total goals sa half-time: 6

Sporting JAX - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	1.00	1.00
Goals na na-score / match	0.4	0.6
Goals na na-concede / match	0.8	1.2
Average ng goals sa match	1.2	1.8
1 goal	60%	80%
2 goals	40%	60%
3 goals	20%	40%
Clean sheet	40%	20%
No goal	80%	60%
Goal difference	-2	-3

Half-time: 20% nangunguna - 40% tabla - 40% nahuhuli

2nd half: 20% panalo - 40% tabla - 40% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 20% - Total goals sa half-time: 2

* Ipinapakita ng colors sa tables ang event frequency: green ay common, yellow ay moderate, red ay rare. Frequency ito, hindi team rating.

Goals ayon sa minuto— kailan dumarating ang goals?

Mga phase ng match kung kailan pinakamadalas maka-score at mag-concede ang dalawang teams.

Louisville City

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 16-30 (3). Balance ng late goals (76-90): +3 - malakas sa late phases.

Sporting JAX

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 0-15 (1 goal). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 76-90 (5). Balance ng late goals (76-90): -4 - mahina sa late phases.

* Kasama sa buckets na 31-45 at 76-90 ang added-time goals.

Karagdagang team indicators— ano ang ipinapakita ng xG, efficiency at form?

Comparison ng chance quality, results at trends mula sa completed matches ngayong season.

Profile ng match

3.42

Estimated na goals

attack laban sa opponent defence

2.3 : 1.2

Estimated na hati ng goals

home : away

134%

Pace kumpara sa liga

100% = average ng liga

59%

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)

average mula sa seasons ng dalawang teams

-100%

Derby effect

H2H goals kumpara sa typical matches

42%

BTTS estimate

mula sa scoring frequency ng dalawang teams

0:0 risk

mga 1 sa bawat 11 matches

0-1

Pinakakaraniwang goal range

attack vs defence sa magkabilang panig

Louisville City

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

+0.82

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

+0.01

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

+0.3 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

+0.41

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

-0.40

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

162%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

135%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

-0.17

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

+0.3

Mga late goal

21% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 7% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

21%

Sporting JAX

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

-0.61

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

-0.73

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

-1.3 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

-0.27

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

-0.46

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

75%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

151%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

+0.03

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

+0.2

Mga late goal

20% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 20% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

20%

* Ang estimated goals, goal split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk at goal range ay galing sa public season averages at frequencies ng dalawang teams. Statistical match profile ito, hindi private model prediction o betting pick. Ang iba pang indicators ay naglalarawan ng completed matches sa season.

Context ng liga— mataas ba ang scoring sa league na ito?

Paano nagko-compare ang dalawang teams sa league-wide averages ng USL Championship.

Teams kumpara sa liga

	Louisville City	Liga	Sporting JAX
Average ng goals sa match	▲ 3.83	2.55	▲ 3.00
Parehong teams naka-score	▲ 67%	51%	• 50%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)	▲ 67%	49%	• 50%
Clean sheets	▼ 17%	30%	▼ 0%
Goal bago ang half-time	▲ 83%	63%	▲ 67%
Goal pagkatapos ng half-time	▲ 100%	79%	▲ 83%

^ green = mas mataas sa league average, ˇ red = mas mababa sa league average. Direction ng gap ang ipinapakita nito, hindi team rating.

2.55

Average goals bawat match

51%

Parehong teams naka-score

49%

Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)

30%

Clean sheets

1.44

Home goals bawat match

1.11

Away goals bawat match

+30%

Advantage ng home attack

+23%

Advantage ng home defence

+20%

Kabuuang home advantage

Goals sa 1st half (buong liga)

63%

1 goal

31%

2 goals

3 goals

4 goals

Goals sa 2nd half (buong liga)

79%

1 goal

46%

2 goals

17%

3 goals

4 goals

Lineups at player events

Verified starters, substitutes at recorded events para sa match.

Home team

Starting lineup

1Hugo Fauroux 3Jake MorrisA 1 5Brandon Dayes 6Zachary Duncanlumabas 90'7Ray Serrano Lopezlumabas 64'8Taylor Davila 14Tola Showunmilumabas 64'15Emanuel Perezlumabas 76'16Carlos Moguel Jr.27Evan Davilalumabas 64'32Kyle Adams

Substitutes

9Chris Donovanpumasok 64'12Daniel Faundezpumasok 1'13Amadou Diapumasok 1'19Babacar Niangpumasok 90'21Quentin Emeric Huermanpumasok 1'23Sam Gleadlepumasok 76'25Jansen Wilson⚽ 1 · pumasok 64'47Mukwelle Madzey Akalepumasok 64'

Away team

Starting lineup

2Harvey Neville 3Tyshawn Rose 6Jordan Bernard Rossiter 12Edgardo José Rito Cuerolumabas 67'15Ryan Edwards🟨 1 16Emil Jaaskelainen 22Antonio Gomez🟨 1 24Thomas Robertslumabas 71'31Christian Olivares 32Brem Soumaoro 77Dida Armstrong🟨 1 · lumabas 90'

Substitutes

4Ethan Dudleypumasok 1'7Jacob Evanspumasok 1'10Kieran Paul Sadlierpumasok 71'11Ahmad Al-Qaqpumasok 90'18Wahab Ackwei🟨 1 · pumasok 67'26Luc Graniturpumasok 1'

42Juan Esteban Casas Rodríguezpumasok 1'

Timeline ng match

Mga goal, card at substitution ayon sa pagkakasunod ng oras.

26'
Sporting JAXYellow cardRyan Edwards
67'
Sporting JAXSubstitutionPumasok: Wahab AckweiLumabas: Edgardo José Rito Cuero
70'
Sporting JAXYellow cardAntonio Gomez
71'
Sporting JAXSubstitutionPumasok: Kieran Paul SadlierLumabas: Thomas Roberts
76'
Louisville CitySubstitutionPumasok: Sam GleadleLumabas: Emanuel Perez
80'
Sporting JAXYellow cardWahab Ackwei
85'
Sporting JAXYellow cardDida Armstrong
90'
Sporting JAXSubstitutionPumasok: Ahmad Al-QaqLumabas: Dida Armstrong
90'
Louisville CitySubstitutionPumasok: Babacar NiangLumabas: Zachary Duncan
90+6'
Louisville CityGoalJansen WilsonAssist: Jake Morris

Referee at coaches

Buksan ang season profiles para makita ang match record, goals at discipline trends.

RefereeMuhammad Kaleia Away coachLiam Fox

Mga madalas itanong

Ano ang result ng Louisville City vs Sporting JAX?

Natapos ang USL Championship match sa score na Louisville City 1:0 Sporting JAX. Nasa page na ito ang match statistics, half-by-half data at head-to-head record.

Ano ang ipinapakita ng goal statistics bago ang Louisville City vs Sporting JAX?

Louisville City scores 2.33 goals per match at Sporting JAX 0.83. Ang USL Championship average ay 2.55 goals, may Over 2.5 sa 49% ng matches. BTTS: Louisville City 67%, Sporting JAX 50%.

Ano ang current form ng Louisville City at Sporting JAX?

Sa last 5 matches, ang Louisville City ay 3-1-1 (2.00 points per match), habang ang Sporting JAX ay 0-1-4 (0.20 points per match).

Saan makikita ang betting pick at full analysis ng Louisville City vs Sporting JAX?

Nasa page na ito ang statistical context: form, H2H, goals, BTTS at Over/Under. Makikita sa NoFluffPicks app ang betting pick, value bet at full reasoning.