Cyprus - Second Division04/24/2026, 02:00 PMUpdated ang data noong September 13, 2026

MEAP Nisou vs Omonia 29is Maiou: mga stats ng match

3 : 3half-time 1:1

MEAP Nisou vs Omonia 29is Maiou: form, goals at mahahalagang stats

Mahahalagang detalye ng match

Naglaro ang MEAP Nisou laban sa Omonia 29is Maiou sa Second Division (Cyprus). Nilaro ang match noong 24 April 2026. Final score: 3:3.

Current na form

MEAP Nisou: 1-0-4 sa last five matches at 0.60 points per match. Omonia 29is Maiou: 2-3-0 at 1.80 points per match.

Stats ng goals

MEAP Nisou ay may 1.00 goals na na-score at 1.68 na na-concede bawat match. Ang Omonia 29is Maiou naman ay may 2.04 na na-score at 1.07 na na-concede. Average ng liga: 2.72 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: MEAP Nisou 46%, Omonia 29is Maiou 57%. Over 2.5: MEAP Nisou 46%, Omonia 29is Maiou 57%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 49%.

xG, shots at style ng laro

Omonia 29is Maiou ang may mas mataas na xG per match: 1.66 vs 1.43. May average na 7.5 shots bawat match ang MEAP Nisou, habang 8.3 naman ang Omonia 29is Maiou.

First at second half

Nangunguna ang MEAP Nisou sa half-time sa 21% ng matches at nakaka-score ng 0.39 goals pagkatapos ng break. Para sa Omonia 29is Maiou, 43% at 1.04 ang mga value.

Goals ayon sa minuto

MEAP Nisou: 31-45+ (8 goals). Omonia 29is Maiou: 31-45+ (15 goals). Historical goal distribution ito, hindi prediction ng exact goal minute.

Context ng liga

Second Division: 2.72 goals per match, BTTS 49% at Over 2.5 49%.

Head-to-head record

Bago ang match na ito, may 2 previous head-to-head matches sa database. Ang record ay 0-0-2, average goals 4.00, at BTTS 0%.

Archived na pre-match analysis

Ginawa ang analysis na ito bago ang kick-off. Ang conclusions ay base lang sa data na available bago ang match at hindi kasama ang final result o post-match statistics.

General match analysis

Omonia clear favorite: sa season naka-score sila ng 57 goals vs 28 ng MEAP, at away goal difference ng guests +14, habang MEAP home -16. Sa last 5 games Omonia scored 13 goals (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) at 1.8 points per game, samantalang MEAP only 4 goals (1 win, 4 losses) at 0.6 ppg. Quality ng chances pabor kay Omonia: guests nag-a-average ng 12.75 shots at 5.58 on target sa away matches with 14% conversion, habang MEAP home 9.78 shots at 3.78 on target with 10% conversion. Defensively malaking gap — MEAP concedes 2.07 goals per game at home with xG against 1.57, habang Omonia concedes 0.86 goals away with xG against 0.87 at 50% clean sheets. Considering goal advantage (57 vs 28), xG (1.69 vs 1.34) and ‘not scoring’ rates (MEAP 36% vs Omonia 7%), I predict an away win; giving Omonia 70% chance, draw 18% and home 12%.

Tingnan ang statistical overview

Ayon sa half

1 : 1

1st half

2 : 2

2nd half

Stats ng match

50Possession (%)50

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

9Shots9

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

3Shots on target3

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

1.21xG1.18

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

3Corners9

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

60Dangerous attacks55

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

-1Fouls-1

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

-1Cards-1

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

Pre-match na profile— ano ang sinasabi ng season numbers?

Team profile ito batay sa season data at form. Lalabas lang ang match-flow statistics kapag tapos na ang fixture.

1Points bawat match1.86

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

1Goals na na-score / match2.04

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

1.68Goals na na-concede / match1.07

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

1.43xG for1.66

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

40%Average na possession38%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

2.89Shots on target bawat match3.29

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

25%Clean sheets39%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

46%Parehong teams naka-score57%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

Stats ng teams— alin ang mas efficient na team?

Comparison ng attack at defence ng dalawang teams sa current season.

7.5Shots bawat match8.29

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

2.89Shots on target3.29

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

13.3%Shot conversion24.6%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

40%Possession38%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

1.43xG for1.66

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

1.49xG against0.94

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

Quality ng shooting

MEAP Nisou: Counter-attacking ang styleOmonia 29is Maiou: Counter-attacking ang style

	MEAP Nisou	Omonia 29is Maiou
Accuracy ng shots on target	39%	40%
Quality ng chances (xG bawat shot)	0.19	0.20
Finishing (goals bawat shot on target)	0.35	0.62

Kapag nasa 0.08 ang xG per shot, kadalasan long-range attempts iyon; ang 0.15+ ay karaniwang chances sa box. Galing sa possession, shot volume at conversion ang style label.

* Ipinapakita ng xG (expected goals) kung ilang goals ang inaasahang makuha ng team mula sa chances nito. Kapag mas mataas ang actual goals kaysa xG, above average ang finishing; kapag mas mababa, may missed chances.

Form ng teams— alin ang mas maganda ang current form?

Last five matches at season record, overall at may home-away split.

Omonia 29is Maiou ang 200% better sa: form sa last 5 matches.

0.6 pts / match - MEAP Nisou · 1.8 pts / match - Omonia 29is Maiou

MEAP Nisou

WLLLL

Result split ngayong season

29% W14% D57% L

Season record (W-D-L)

8-4-16

1.00 pts / match · goal difference -19

Last 5 (W-D-L)

1-0-4

0.60 pts / match

Record ng team sa home (W-D-L)

3-1-10

Last 5 sa home

0-1-4

LDLLL

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 0.8Goals na na-concede: 1.4xG: 1.31Opponent xG: 1.00BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 40%

Omonia 29is Maiou

DWDDW

Unbeaten sa last 5 matches

Result split ngayong season

50% W36% D14% L

Season record (W-D-L)

14-10-4

1.86 pts / match · goal difference +27

Last 5 (W-D-L)

2-3-0

1.80 pts / match

Record ng team sa away (W-D-L)

8-4-2

Last 5 sa away

3-1-1

LWWWD

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 2.6Goals na na-concede: 1.6xG: 1.52Opponent xG: 1.07BTTS: 80%Over 2.5: 80%

Goals— paano nag-i-score at nagko-concede ang dalawang teams?

Ilang goals ang sini-score at kino-concede ng dalawang teams, pati kung gaano kadalas silang mag-clean sheet o hindi maka-score.

Omonia 29is Maiou ang 104% better sa: goals scored per match.

1 goals / match - MEAP Nisou · 2.04 goals / match - Omonia 29is Maiou

Omonia 29is Maiou ang 57% better sa: goals conceded per match.

1.68 goals / match - MEAP Nisou · 1.07 goals / match - Omonia 29is Maiou

Scoring profile ng MEAP Nisou: malakas

Nakaka-score ang MEAP Nisou sa 64% ng matches (18 sa 28 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Omonia 29is Maiou sa 39% (11 sa 28 matches).

Scoring profile ng Omonia 29is Maiou: napakalakas

Nakaka-score ang Omonia 29is Maiou sa 89% ng matches (25 sa 28 matches), habang may clean sheet ang MEAP Nisou sa 25% (7 sa 28 matches).

28Goals na na-score (season)57

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

47Goals na na-concede (season)30

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

2.68Average ng goals sa match3.11

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

4Goals na na-score (last 5)13

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

7Goals na na-concede (last 5)8

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

MEAP Nisou

25%

Clean sheets7 sa 28 matches

36%

No goal10 sa 28 matches

Omonia 29is Maiou

39%

Clean sheets11 sa 28 matches

11%

No goal3 sa 28 matches

Gaano kadalas silang maka-score ng hindi bababa sa...

64%1 goal89%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

25%2 goals54%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

7%3 goals29%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

4%4 goals14%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

Gaano kadalas silang mag-concede ng hindi bababa sa...

75%1 goal61%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

50%2 goals36%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

21%3 goals11%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

11%4 goals0%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

* Kasama sa statistics ang home at away matches ng dalawang teams sa current season.

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)— gaano kadalas nakaka-score ang parehong teams?

Gaano kadalas may goals ang magkabilang panig sa matches ng teams, kumpara sa league average.

46%

MEAP Nisou - BTTS13 sa 28 matches

57%

Omonia 29is Maiou - BTTS16 sa 28 matches

49%

Average ng liga

Mga pattern ng goal

29%BTTS sa half-time25%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

0%BTTS sa parehong halves14%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

14%Naka-score sa parehong halves39%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

BTTS at goal count

39%Min. 3 goals at BTTS43%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

7%Min. 3 goals na walang BTTS14%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

40%BTTS - last 580%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

Mga goal line (Over/Under)— gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal lines ang kanilang matches?

Gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal thresholds ang matches ng teams, sa full match at bawat half.

Buong match - comparison ng teams (Over)

93%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)93%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

75%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)79%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

46%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)57%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

25%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)39%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

18%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)25%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

Over / Under - MEAP Nisou

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 93%Under 7%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 75%Under 25%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 46%Under 54%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 25%Under 75%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 18%Under 82%

Over / Under - Omonia 29is Maiou

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 93%Under 7%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 79%Under 21%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 57%Under 43%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 39%Under 61%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 25%Under 75%

1st half

82%Min. 1 goal bago ang half-time75%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

50%Min. 2 goals bago ang half-time43%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

11%Min. 3 goals bago ang half-time21%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

2nd half

68%Min. 1 goal pagkatapos ng half-time86%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

32%Min. 2 goals pagkatapos ng half-time43%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

11%Min. 3 goals pagkatapos ng half-time21%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

Mga half ng match— saang half mas madalas silang maka-score?

Paano nahahati sa first at second half ang performance: goals, points, clean sheets at state sa half-time.

Omonia 29is Maiou ang 58% better sa: form sa first half (half-time points).

1.04 pts / match - MEAP Nisou · 1.64 pts / match - Omonia 29is Maiou

MEAP Nisou - state sa half-time

21% nangunguna39% tabla39% nahuhuli

Omonia 29is Maiou - state sa half-time

43% nangunguna36% tabla21% nahuhuli

Bago ang half-time (1st half)

1.04Points bawat match (1st half)1.64

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

0.61Goals na na-score (1st half)1

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

0.89Goals na na-concede (1st half)0.54

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

1.5Average ng goals (1st half)1.54

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

36%Clean sheet bago ang half-time57%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

54%Walang goal bago ang half-time43%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

Pagkatapos ng half-time (2nd half)

0.93Points bawat match (2nd half)1.82

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

0.39Goals na na-score (2nd half)1.04

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

0.79Goals na na-concede (2nd half)0.54

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

1.18Average ng goals (2nd half)1.57

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

50%Clean sheet pagkatapos ng half-time61%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

68%Walang goal pagkatapos ng half-time29%

MEAP NisouOmonia 29is Maiou

MEAP Nisou - mga result sa second half

18% W39% D43% L

Half-time points

Half-time goals

-8

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

-11

Goal difference sa 2nd half

1.04

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding138%

Leading sa half-time sa 21% ng matches at nananalo sa 29%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time-0.1

Stable ang defence sa buong match.

Omonia 29is Maiou - mga result sa second half

50% W32% D18% L

Half-time points

Half-time goals

+13

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

+14

Goal difference sa 2nd half

1.64

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding116%

Leading sa half-time sa 43% ng matches at nananalo sa 50%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time0.0

Stable ang defence sa buong match.

MEAP Nisou - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	1.00	0.40
Goals na na-score / match	0.8	0.0
Goals na na-concede / match	0.8	0.6
Average ng goals sa match	1.6	0.6
1 goal	100%	60%
2 goals	60%	0%
3 goals	0%	0%
Clean sheet	20%	40%
No goal	40%	100%
Goal difference	0	-3

Half-time: 20% nangunguna - 40% tabla - 40% nahuhuli

2nd half: 0% panalo - 40% tabla - 60% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 40% - Total goals sa half-time: 4

Omonia 29is Maiou - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	1.20	2.20
Goals na na-score / match	1.2	1.4
Goals na na-concede / match	1.0	0.6
Average ng goals sa match	2.2	2.0
1 goal	60%	100%
2 goals	60%	60%
3 goals	40%	20%
Clean sheet	40%	60%
No goal	40%	0%
Goal difference	+1	+4

Half-time: 20% nangunguna - 60% tabla - 20% nahuhuli

2nd half: 60% panalo - 40% tabla - 0% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 60% - Total goals sa half-time: 6

* Ipinapakita ng colors sa tables ang event frequency: green ay common, yellow ay moderate, red ay rare. Frequency ito, hindi team rating.

Goals ayon sa minuto— kailan dumarating ang goals?

Mga phase ng match kung kailan pinakamadalas maka-score at mag-concede ang dalawang teams.

MEAP Nisou

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 31-45 (15). Balance ng late goals (76-90): -8 - mahina sa late phases.

Omonia 29is Maiou

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 31-45 (15 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 76-90 (10). Balance ng late goals (76-90): +1 - malakas sa late phases.

* Kasama sa buckets na 31-45 at 76-90 ang added-time goals.

Karagdagang team indicators— ano ang ipinapakita ng xG, efficiency at form?

Comparison ng chance quality, results at trends mula sa completed matches ngayong season.

Profile ng match

2.90

Estimated na goals

attack laban sa opponent defence

1.0 : 1.9

Estimated na hati ng goals

home : away

106%

Pace kumpara sa liga

100% = average ng liga

52%

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)

average mula sa seasons ng dalawang teams

+38%

Derby effect

H2H goals kumpara sa typical matches

57%

BTTS estimate

mula sa scoring frequency ng dalawang teams

0:0 risk

mga 1 sa bawat 25 matches

0-1

Pinakakaraniwang goal range

attack vs defence sa magkabilang panig

MEAP Nisou

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

-0.06

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

-0.62

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

+6.0 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

-0.43

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

-0.19

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

71%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

127%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

-0.40

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

-0.2

Mga late goal

18% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 11% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

18%

Omonia 29is Maiou

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

+0.72

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

+0.25

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

-13.8 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

+0.38

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

-0.13

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

155%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

76%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

-0.06

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

+0.0

Mga late goal

19% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 11% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

19%

* Ang estimated goals, goal split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk at goal range ay galing sa public season averages at frequencies ng dalawang teams. Statistical match profile ito, hindi private model prediction o betting pick. Ang iba pang indicators ay naglalarawan ng completed matches sa season.

Context ng liga— mataas ba ang scoring sa league na ito?

Paano nagko-compare ang dalawang teams sa league-wide averages ng Second Division.

Teams kumpara sa liga

	MEAP Nisou	Liga	Omonia 29is Maiou
Average ng goals sa match	• 2.68	2.72	▲ 3.11
Parehong teams naka-score	▼ 46%	49%	▲ 57%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)	▼ 46%	49%	▲ 57%
Clean sheets	▼ 25%	30%	▲ 39%
Goal bago ang half-time	▲ 82%	73%	▲ 75%
Goal pagkatapos ng half-time	▼ 68%	77%	▲ 86%

^ green = mas mataas sa league average, ˇ red = mas mababa sa league average. Direction ng gap ang ipinapakita nito, hindi team rating.

2.72

Average goals bawat match

49%

Parehong teams naka-score

49%

Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)

30%

Clean sheets

1.40

Home goals bawat match

1.32

Away goals bawat match

+6%

Advantage ng home attack

+6%

Advantage ng home defence

+1%

Kabuuang home advantage

Goals sa 1st half (buong liga)

73%

1 goal

41%

2 goals

12%

3 goals

4 goals

Goals sa 2nd half (buong liga)

77%

1 goal

39%

2 goals

16%

3 goals

4 goals

Lineups at player events

Verified starters, substitutes at recorded events para sa match.

Home team

Other recorded players

—Konstantinos Michailidis⚽ 2

Away team

Other recorded players

—Constantinos Pattichis⚽ 1

—Steve Brahim Joshep Omar Ambri⚽ 2

Timeline ng match

Mga goal, card at substitution ayon sa pagkakasunod ng oras.

29'
MEAP NisouGoalKonstantinos Michailidis
45'
Omonia 29is MaiouGoalSteve Brahim Joshep Omar Ambri
49'
Omonia 29is MaiouGoalConstantinos Pattichis
57'
MEAP NisouGoalKonstantinos Michailidis
79'
Omonia 29is MaiouGoalSteve Brahim Joshep Omar Ambri

Head-to-head

Mga recent meeting (2): MEAP Nisou 0 - 0 - 2 Omonia 29is Maiou. Average ng goals 4.00, both teams scored sa 0% matches.

Mga madalas itanong

Ano ang result ng MEAP Nisou vs Omonia 29is Maiou?

Natapos ang Second Division match sa score na MEAP Nisou 3:3 Omonia 29is Maiou. Nasa page na ito ang match statistics, half-by-half data at head-to-head record.

Ano ang head-to-head record ng MEAP Nisou at Omonia 29is Maiou?

Sa huling 2 head-to-head matches, nanalo ang MEAP Nisou ng 0, ang Omonia 29is Maiou ng 2, at 0 ang draws. Average goals: 4.00; BTTS: 0%.

Ano ang ipinapakita ng goal statistics bago ang MEAP Nisou vs Omonia 29is Maiou?

MEAP Nisou scores 1.00 goals per match at Omonia 29is Maiou 2.04. Ang Second Division average ay 2.72 goals, may Over 2.5 sa 49% ng matches. BTTS: MEAP Nisou 46%, Omonia 29is Maiou 57%.

Ano ang current form ng MEAP Nisou at Omonia 29is Maiou?

Sa last 5 matches, ang MEAP Nisou ay 1-0-4 (0.60 points per match), habang ang Omonia 29is Maiou ay 2-3-0 (1.80 points per match).

Saan makikita ang betting pick at full analysis ng MEAP Nisou vs Omonia 29is Maiou?

Nasa page na ito ang statistical context: form, H2H, goals, BTTS at Over/Under. Makikita sa NoFluffPicks app ang betting pick, value bet at full reasoning.