Uzbekistan - Uzbekistan Super League04/23/2026, 02:00 PMUpdated ang data noong September 08, 2026

Navbahor vs Sogdiana: mga stats ng match

1 : 1half-time 0:0

Navbahor vs Sogdiana: form, goals at mahahalagang stats

Mahahalagang detalye ng match

Naglaro ang Navbahor laban sa Sogdiana sa Uzbekistan Super League (Uzbekistan). Nilaro ang match noong 23 April 2026. Final score: 1:1.

Current na form

Navbahor: 4-0-1 sa last five matches at 2.40 points per match. Sogdiana: 1-1-3 at 0.80 points per match.

Stats ng goals

Navbahor ay may 1.50 goals na na-score at 0.63 na na-concede bawat match. Ang Sogdiana naman ay may 1.50 na na-score at 2.50 na na-concede. Average ng liga: 2.48 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Navbahor 38%, Sogdiana 75%. Over 2.5: Navbahor 38%, Sogdiana 88%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 48%.

xG, shots at style ng laro

Navbahor ang may mas mataas na xG per match: 1.55 vs 1.42. May average na 13.5 shots bawat match ang Navbahor, habang 11.6 naman ang Sogdiana.

First at second half

Nangunguna ang Navbahor sa half-time sa 50% ng matches at nakaka-score ng 0.50 goals pagkatapos ng break. Para sa Sogdiana, 50% at 0.50 ang mga value.

Goals ayon sa minuto

Navbahor: 0-15 (3 goals). Sogdiana: 0-15 (3 goals). Historical goal distribution ito, hindi prediction ng exact goal minute.

Context ng liga

Uzbekistan Super League: 2.48 goals per match, BTTS 50% at Over 2.5 48%.

Head-to-head record

Bago ang match na ito, may 2 previous head-to-head matches sa database. Ang record ay 1-1-0, average goals 3.50, at BTTS 100%.

Archived na pre-match analysis

Ginawa ang analysis na ito bago ang kick-off. Ang conclusions ay base lang sa data na available bago ang match at hindi kasama ang final result o post-match statistics.

General match analysis

Navbahor may clear edge sa home: nasa 3rd spot sa home table, won 6 of 8 home games (67% wins) at conceding only 0.67 goals per game. Sogdiana is 15th, concedes 2.25 goals away on average and walang clean sheet sa away games (0% clean sheets), with 50% away loss rate. Offensively visitors average 1.5 goals away and higher shot accuracy 15%, pero Navbahor creates more chances (avg 15.33 shots and 4.67 on target at home) at mas mataas na xG 1.65 vs 1.22 for Sogdiana. Favorite form is better: Navbahor has 4 wins in last 5 and 2.4 points per game in that span, while Sogdiana gets 0.8 ppg and conceded 12 goals in last 5. Considering defensive advantage (0.67 vs 2.25 conceded), higher xG and more created chances, I tip a home win.

Tingnan ang statistical overview

Ayon sa half

0 : 0

1st half

1 : 1

2nd half

Stats ng match

74Possession (%)26

NavbahorSogdiana

10Shots5

NavbahorSogdiana

3Shots on target2

NavbahorSogdiana

1.23xG0.77

NavbahorSogdiana

9Corners4

NavbahorSogdiana

54Dangerous attacks43

NavbahorSogdiana

10Fouls14

NavbahorSogdiana

0Cards3

NavbahorSogdiana

Pre-match na profile— ano ang sinasabi ng season numbers?

Team profile ito batay sa season data at form. Lalabas lang ang match-flow statistics kapag tapos na ang fixture.

2.25Points bawat match0.63

NavbahorSogdiana

1.5Goals na na-score / match1.5

NavbahorSogdiana

0.63Goals na na-concede / match2.5

NavbahorSogdiana

1.55xG for1.42

NavbahorSogdiana

53%Average na possession44%

NavbahorSogdiana

4.5Shots on target bawat match4.75

NavbahorSogdiana

50%Clean sheets0%

NavbahorSogdiana

38%Parehong teams naka-score75%

NavbahorSogdiana

Stats ng teams— alin ang mas efficient na team?

Comparison ng attack at defence ng dalawang teams sa current season.

13.5Shots bawat match11.63

NavbahorSogdiana

4.5Shots on target4.75

NavbahorSogdiana

11.1%Shot conversion12.9%

NavbahorSogdiana

53%Possession44%

NavbahorSogdiana

1.55xG for1.42

NavbahorSogdiana

1.08xG against1.52

NavbahorSogdiana

Quality ng shooting

Navbahor: Balanced ang styleSogdiana: Counter-attacking ang style

	Navbahor	Sogdiana
Accuracy ng shots on target	33%	41%
Quality ng chances (xG bawat shot)	0.11	0.12
Finishing (goals bawat shot on target)	0.33	0.32

Kapag nasa 0.08 ang xG per shot, kadalasan long-range attempts iyon; ang 0.15+ ay karaniwang chances sa box. Galing sa possession, shot volume at conversion ang style label.

* Ipinapakita ng xG (expected goals) kung ilang goals ang inaasahang makuha ng team mula sa chances nito. Kapag mas mataas ang actual goals kaysa xG, above average ang finishing; kapag mas mababa, may missed chances.

Form ng teams— alin ang mas maganda ang current form?

Last five matches at season record, overall at may home-away split.

Navbahor ang 200% better sa: form sa last 5 matches.

2.4 pts / match - Navbahor · 0.8 pts / match - Sogdiana

Navbahor

LWWWW

Result split ngayong season

75% W0% R25% P

Season record (W-D-L)

6-0-2

2.25 pts / match · goal difference +7

Last 5 (W-D-L)

4-0-1

2.40 pts / match

Record ng team sa home (W-D-L)

2-0-1

Last 5 sa home

2-0-1

LWW

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 1.6Goals na na-concede: 0.6xG: 1.59Opponent xG: 1.11BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 40%

Sogdiana

LDLWL

Result split ngayong season

13% W25% R63% P

Season record (W-D-L)

1-2-5

0.63 pts / match · goal difference -8

Last 5 (W-D-L)

1-1-3

0.80 pts / match

Record ng team sa away (W-D-L)

1-1-2

Last 5 sa away

1-1-2

LDLW

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 2.0Goals na na-concede: 2.4xG: 1.54Opponent xG: 1.59BTTS: 100%Over 2.5: 100%

Goals— paano nag-i-score at nagko-concede ang dalawang teams?

Ilang goals ang sini-score at kino-concede ng dalawang teams, pati kung gaano kadalas silang mag-clean sheet o hindi maka-score.

Navbahor ang 297% better sa: goals conceded per match.

0.63 goals / match - Navbahor · 2.5 goals / match - Sogdiana

Scoring profile ng Navbahor: napakalakas

Nakaka-score ang Navbahor sa 88% ng matches (7 sa 8 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Sogdiana sa 0% (0 sa 8 matches).

Scoring profile ng Sogdiana: malakas

Nakaka-score ang Sogdiana sa 75% ng matches (6 sa 8 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Navbahor sa 50% (4 sa 8 matches).

12Goals na na-score (season)12

NavbahorSogdiana

5Goals na na-concede (season)20

NavbahorSogdiana

2.13Average ng goals sa match4

NavbahorSogdiana

8Goals na na-score (last 5)10

NavbahorSogdiana

3Goals na na-concede (last 5)12

NavbahorSogdiana

Navbahor

50%

Clean sheets4 sa 8 matches

13%

No goal1 sa 8 matches

Sogdiana

Clean sheets0 sa 8 matches

25%

No goal2 sa 8 matches

Gaano kadalas silang maka-score ng hindi bababa sa...

88%1 goal75%

NavbahorSogdiana

63%2 goals63%

NavbahorSogdiana

0%3 goals13%

NavbahorSogdiana

0%4 goals0%

NavbahorSogdiana

Gaano kadalas silang mag-concede ng hindi bababa sa...

50%1 goal100%

NavbahorSogdiana

13%2 goals88%

NavbahorSogdiana

0%3 goals38%

NavbahorSogdiana

0%4 goals25%

NavbahorSogdiana

* Kasama sa statistics ang home at away matches ng dalawang teams sa current season.

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)— gaano kadalas nakaka-score ang parehong teams?

Gaano kadalas may goals ang magkabilang panig sa matches ng teams, kumpara sa league average.

38%

Navbahor - BTTS3 sa 8 matches

75%

Sogdiana - BTTS6 sa 8 matches

50%

Average ng liga

Mga pattern ng goal

25%BTTS sa half-time25%

NavbahorSogdiana

0%BTTS sa parehong halves13%

NavbahorSogdiana

13%Naka-score sa parehong halves38%

NavbahorSogdiana

BTTS at goal count

38%Min. 3 goals at BTTS75%

NavbahorSogdiana

0%Min. 3 goals na walang BTTS13%

NavbahorSogdiana

40%BTTS - last 5100%

NavbahorSogdiana

Mga goal line (Over/Under)— gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal lines ang kanilang matches?

Gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal thresholds ang matches ng teams, sa full match at bawat half.

Buong match - comparison ng teams (Over)

100%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)100%

NavbahorSogdiana

75%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)100%

NavbahorSogdiana

38%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)88%

NavbahorSogdiana

0%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)75%

NavbahorSogdiana

0%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)25%

NavbahorSogdiana

Over / Under - Navbahor

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 100%Under 0%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 75%Under 25%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 38%Under 62%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 0%Under 100%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 0%Under 100%

Over / Under - Sogdiana

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 100%Under 0%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 100%Under 0%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 88%Under 12%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 75%Under 25%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 25%Under 75%

1st half

63%Min. 1 goal bago ang half-time88%

NavbahorSogdiana

50%Min. 2 goals bago ang half-time75%

NavbahorSogdiana

13%Min. 3 goals bago ang half-time13%

NavbahorSogdiana

2nd half

75%Min. 1 goal pagkatapos ng half-time88%

NavbahorSogdiana

13%Min. 2 goals pagkatapos ng half-time88%

NavbahorSogdiana

0%Min. 3 goals pagkatapos ng half-time38%

NavbahorSogdiana

Mga half ng match— saang half mas madalas silang maka-score?

Paano nahahati sa first at second half ang performance: goals, points, clean sheets at state sa half-time.

Navbahor ang 14% better sa: form sa first half (half-time points).

2 pts / match - Navbahor · 1.75 pts / match - Sogdiana

Navbahor - state sa half-time

50% nangunguna50% tabla0% nahuhuli

Sogdiana - state sa half-time

50% nangunguna25% tabla25% nahuhuli

Bago ang half-time (1st half)

2Points bawat match (1st half)1.75

NavbahorSogdiana

1Goals na na-score (1st half)1

NavbahorSogdiana

0.25Goals na na-concede (1st half)0.75

NavbahorSogdiana

1.25Average ng goals (1st half)1.75

NavbahorSogdiana

75%Clean sheet bago ang half-time50%

NavbahorSogdiana

38%Walang goal bago ang half-time38%

NavbahorSogdiana

Pagkatapos ng half-time (2nd half)

1.38Points bawat match (2nd half)0.25

NavbahorSogdiana

0.5Goals na na-score (2nd half)0.5

NavbahorSogdiana

0.38Goals na na-concede (2nd half)1.75

NavbahorSogdiana

0.88Average ng goals (2nd half)2.25

NavbahorSogdiana

63%Clean sheet pagkatapos ng half-time13%

NavbahorSogdiana

63%Walang goal pagkatapos ng half-time50%

NavbahorSogdiana

Navbahor - mga result sa second half

38% W25% R38% P

Half-time points

Half-time goals

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

Goal difference sa 2nd half

2.00

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding150%

Leading sa half-time sa 50% ng matches at nananalo sa 75%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.1

Nagko-concede ng 0.1 more goals per match pagkatapos ng half-time - bumababa ang defensive level sa second half.

Sogdiana - mga result sa second half

0% W25% R75% P

Half-time points

Half-time goals

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

-10

Goal difference sa 2nd half

1.75

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding26%

Leading sa half-time sa 50% ng matches at nananalo sa 13%. Minsan nawawala ang lead pagkatapos ng half-time.

Defence after half-time+1.0

Nagko-concede ng 1.0 more goals per match pagkatapos ng half-time - bumababa ang defensive level sa second half.

Navbahor - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	2.20	1.40
Goals na na-score / match	1.2	0.4
Goals na na-concede / match	0.2	0.4
Average ng goals sa match	1.4	0.8
1 goal	80%	80%
2 goals	60%	0%
3 goals	0%	0%
Clean sheet	80%	60%
No goal	20%	60%
Goal difference	+5	0

Half-time: 60% nangunguna - 40% tabla - 0% nahuhuli

2nd half: 40% panalo - 20% tabla - 40% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 20% - Total goals sa half-time: 6

Sogdiana - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	2.20	0.20
Goals na na-score / match	1.4	0.6
Goals na na-concede / match	0.4	2.0
Average ng goals sa match	1.8	2.6
1 goal	80%	100%
2 goals	80%	100%
3 goals	20%	40%
Clean sheet	60%	0%
No goal	20%	40%
Goal difference	+5	-7

Half-time: 60% nangunguna - 40% tabla - 0% nahuhuli

2nd half: 0% panalo - 20% tabla - 80% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 40% - Total goals sa half-time: 7

* Ipinapakita ng colors sa tables ang event frequency: green ay common, yellow ay moderate, red ay rare. Frequency ito, hindi team rating.

Goals ayon sa minuto— kailan dumarating ang goals?

Mga phase ng match kung kailan pinakamadalas maka-score at mag-concede ang dalawang teams.

Navbahor

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 61-75 (2). Balance ng late goals (76-90): +1 - malakas sa late phases.

Sogdiana

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 46-60 (6). Balance ng late goals (76-90): -2 - mahina sa late phases.

* Kasama sa buckets na 31-45 at 76-90 ang added-time goals.

Karagdagang team indicators— ano ang ipinapakita ng xG, efficiency at form?

Comparison ng chance quality, results at trends mula sa completed matches ngayong season.

Profile ng match

3.06

Estimated na goals

attack laban sa opponent defence

2.0 : 1.1

Estimated na hati ng goals

home : away

124%

Pace kumpara sa liga

100% = average ng liga

57%

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)

average mula sa seasons ng dalawang teams

+14%

Derby effect

H2H goals kumpara sa typical matches

66%

BTTS estimate

mula sa scoring frequency ng dalawang teams

0:0 risk

mga 1 sa bawat 33 matches

2-3

Pinakakaraniwang goal range

attack vs defence sa magkabilang panig

Navbahor

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

+0.47

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

+0.40

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

-2.4 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

-0.05

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

+0.45

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

116%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

53%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

+0.15

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

-0.5

Mga late goal

17% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 25% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

17%

Sogdiana

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

-0.10

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

-0.90

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

-1.4 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

+0.08

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

-0.98

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

125%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

194%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

+0.17

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

-0.5

Mga late goal

17% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 25% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

17%

* Ang estimated goals, goal split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk at goal range ay galing sa public season averages at frequencies ng dalawang teams. Statistical match profile ito, hindi private model prediction o betting pick. Ang iba pang indicators ay naglalarawan ng completed matches sa season.

Context ng liga— mataas ba ang scoring sa league na ito?

Paano nagko-compare ang dalawang teams sa league-wide averages ng Uzbekistan Super League.

Teams kumpara sa liga

	Navbahor	Liga	Sogdiana
Average ng goals sa match	▼ 2.13	2.48	▲ 4.00
Parehong teams naka-score	▼ 38%	50%	▲ 75%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)	▼ 38%	48%	▲ 88%
Clean sheets	▲ 50%	27%	▼ 0%
Goal bago ang half-time	▼ 63%	68%	▲ 88%
Goal pagkatapos ng half-time	▼ 75%	79%	▲ 88%

^ green = mas mataas sa league average, ˇ red = mas mababa sa league average. Direction ng gap ang ipinapakita nito, hindi team rating.

2.48

Average goals bawat match

50%

Parehong teams naka-score

48%

Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)

27%

Clean sheets

1.29

Home goals bawat match

1.20

Away goals bawat match

+8%

Advantage ng home attack

+7%

Advantage ng home defence

+0%

Kabuuang home advantage

Goals sa 1st half (buong liga)

68%

1 goal

39%

2 goals

3 goals

4 goals

Goals sa 2nd half (buong liga)

79%

1 goal

38%

2 goals

11%

3 goals

4 goals

Lineups at player events

Verified starters, substitutes at recorded events para sa match.

Home team

Starting lineup

1Utkir Yusupov 2Saidazamat Mirsaidov 4Islombek Mamatkazin⚽ 1 7Ruslanbek Jiyanov 8Diyor Kholmatovlumabas 70'13Benjamin Opeyemi Teidilumabas 80'22Umar Adhamzoda 23Vanja Ilićlumabas 70'28Katulondi Kati Katilumabas 80'34Giorgi Jgerenaia 70Abbos Gulomovlumabas 70'

Substitutes

5Dilshodjon Komilovpumasok 70'6Shokhrukh Abdurahmonovpumasok 70'10Shohmalik Karimovpumasok 1'16Shukron Yuldashevpumasok 1'

18Isakhan Musaxonovpumasok 1'

20Kuvondyk Ruziyevpumasok 80'44Anri Tchitchinadzepumasok 1'77Muhammadali Usmonovpumasok 70'97Alex Nascimento FernandesA 1 · pumasok 80'

Away team

Starting lineup

2Zoir Jurabaev 3Islomjon Kobilov 7Aleksandar Boljevićlumabas 46'11Otabek Jo‘raqo‘zievlumabas 66'13Filip Ivanović 14Ljupche Doriev⚽ 1 · 🟨 1 · lumabas 90'17Ollobergan Karimovlumabas 84'18Nikola Mirković 22Abdulazizkhon Adurashidov 32Nodirjon Soyibov 70Jasur Jaloliddinov🟨 1 · lumabas 46'

Substitutes

4Otabek Ahadovpumasok 84'8Sukhrob Izzatovpumasok 1'9Fejsal MulićA 1 · pumasok 46'10Javoxir Kaxramonov🟨 1 · pumasok 46'21Tokhirbek To'khtasinovpumasok 1'29Amirbek Saidovpumasok 1'42Sardorbek Erkinovpumasok 90'77Oybek Nurmatovpumasok 66'

Timeline ng match

Mga goal, card at substitution ayon sa pagkakasunod ng oras.

22'
SogdianaYellow cardJasur Jaloliddinov
66'
SogdianaSubstitutionPumasok: Oybek NurmatovLumabas: Otabek Jo‘raqo‘ziev
71'
SogdianaGoalLjupche DorievAssist: Fejsal Mulić
84'
SogdianaSubstitutionPumasok: Otabek AhadovLumabas: Ollobergan Karimov
85'
SogdianaYellow cardJavoxir Kaxramonov
87'
SogdianaYellow cardLjupche Doriev
90'
SogdianaSubstitutionPumasok: Sardorbek ErkinovLumabas: Ljupche Doriev
90+4'
NavbahorGoalIslombek MamatkazinAssist: Alex Nascimento Fernandes

Referee at coaches

Buksan ang season profiles para makita ang match record, goals at discipline trends.

Home coachTimur Kapadze Away coachUlugbek Bakaev

Head-to-head

Mga recent meeting (2): Navbahor 1 - 1 - 0 Sogdiana. Average ng goals 3.50, both teams scored sa 100% matches.

FK Navbahor Namangan

1 : 108/06/2025

FK Sogdiana Jizak

2 : 303/16/2025

FK Navbahor Namangan

Mga madalas itanong

Ano ang result ng Navbahor vs Sogdiana?

Natapos ang Uzbekistan Super League match sa score na Navbahor 1:1 Sogdiana. Nasa page na ito ang match statistics, half-by-half data at head-to-head record.

Ano ang head-to-head record ng Navbahor at Sogdiana?

Sa huling 2 head-to-head matches, nanalo ang Navbahor ng 1, ang Sogdiana ng 0, at 1 ang draws. Average goals: 3.50; BTTS: 100%.

Ano ang ipinapakita ng goal statistics bago ang Navbahor vs Sogdiana?

Navbahor scores 1.50 goals per match at Sogdiana 1.50. Ang Uzbekistan Super League average ay 2.48 goals, may Over 2.5 sa 48% ng matches. BTTS: Navbahor 38%, Sogdiana 75%.

Ano ang current form ng Navbahor at Sogdiana?

Sa last 5 matches, ang Navbahor ay 4-0-1 (2.40 points per match), habang ang Sogdiana ay 1-1-3 (0.80 points per match).

Saan makikita ang betting pick at full analysis ng Navbahor vs Sogdiana?

Nasa page na ito ang statistical context: form, H2H, goals, BTTS at Over/Under. Makikita sa NoFluffPicks app ang betting pick, value bet at full reasoning.