France - Ligue 1Updated ang data noong September 13, 2026

Olympique Marseille vs Olympique Lyonnais: mga stats ng match

150%(1.98)
X27%(3.99)
223%(3.84)

Olympique Marseille ay nagpapakita ng impressive home form na may 64% win rate at average na 2.64 goals per match sa kanilang home turf, na ginagawa silang mapanganib na kalaban sa Stade Vélodrome. Ang hosts ay standout offensively na may 48 goals sa season at may possession advantage na 59% sa home matches, kasama ang very low rate ng mga games na walang na-score na goals (9%). Olympique Lyon kahit na may good overall form (4 wins sa last 5 matches) ay nagpapakita ng weaker efficiency sa away games – only 42% wins at average na 1.5 goals per match, with 25% ng mga matches na natapos na walang na-score na goal. Ang key factor ay ang difference sa xG: Marseille generates 1.69 xG sa home versus 1.3 xG ng Lyon sa away, na nag-suggest ng higher quality ng created chances ng hosts. Kahit na ang recent form ng Marseille ay unstable (1 point per match sa last 5 games), ang home advantage at home statistics ay nagsasalita para sa kanila sa prestigious clash na ito.

Olympique Marseille vs Olympique Lyonnais: form, goals at mahahalagang stats

Mahahalagang detalye ng match

Naglaro ang Olympique Marseille laban sa Olympique Lyonnais sa Ligue 1 (France). Nilaro ang match noong 1 March 2026. Final score: 3:2.

Current na form

Olympique Marseille: 1-2-2 sa last five matches at 1.00 points per match. Olympique Lyonnais: 4-0-1 at 2.40 points per match.

Stats ng goals

Olympique Marseille ay may 2.09 goals na na-score at 1.35 na na-concede bawat match. Ang Olympique Lyonnais naman ay may 1.61 na na-score at 1.00 na na-concede. Average ng liga: 2.79 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Olympique Marseille 48%, Olympique Lyonnais 43%. Over 2.5: Olympique Marseille 65%, Olympique Lyonnais 52%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 51%.

xG, shots at style ng laro

Olympique Marseille ang may mas mataas na xG per match: 1.65 vs 1.39. May average na 14.2 shots bawat match ang Olympique Marseille, habang 11.9 naman ang Olympique Lyonnais.

First at second half

Nangunguna ang Olympique Marseille sa half-time sa 43% ng matches at nakaka-score ng 1.17 goals pagkatapos ng break. Para sa Olympique Lyonnais, 48% at 0.74 ang mga value.

Goals ayon sa minuto

Olympique Marseille: 76-90+ (12 goals). Olympique Lyonnais: 31-45+ (9 goals). Historical goal distribution ito, hindi prediction ng exact goal minute.

Context ng liga

Ligue 1: 2.79 goals per match, BTTS 48% at Over 2.5 51%.

Head-to-head record

Bago ang match na ito, may 1 previous head-to-head matches sa database. Ang record ay 0-0-1, average goals 1.00, at BTTS 0%.

Archived na pre-match analysis

Ginawa ang analysis na ito bago ang kick-off. Ang conclusions ay base lang sa data na available bago ang match at hindi kasama ang final result o post-match statistics.

General match analysis

Olympique Marseille ay nagpapakita ng impressive home form na may 64% win rate at average na 2.64 goals per match sa kanilang home turf, na ginagawa silang mapanganib na kalaban sa Stade Vélodrome. Ang hosts ay standout offensively na may 48 goals sa season at may possession advantage na 59% sa home matches, kasama ang very low rate ng mga games na walang na-score na goals (9%). Olympique Lyon kahit na may good overall form (4 wins sa last 5 matches) ay nagpapakita ng weaker efficiency sa away games – only 42% wins at average na 1.5 goals per match, with 25% ng mga matches na natapos na walang na-score na goal. Ang key factor ay ang difference sa xG: Marseille generates 1.69 xG sa home versus 1.3 xG ng Lyon sa away, na nag-suggest ng higher quality ng created chances ng hosts. Kahit na ang recent form ng Marseille ay unstable (1 point per match sa last 5 games), ang home advantage at home statistics ay nagsasalita para sa kanila sa prestigious clash na ito.

Tingnan ang statistical overview

Ayon sa half

0 : 1
1st half
3 : 1
2nd half

Stats ng match

52Possession (%)48
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
18Shots12
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
7Shots on target6
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
2.05xG1.45
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
8Corners1
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
60Dangerous attacks37
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
16Fouls8
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
3Cards2
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais

Pre-match na profileano ang sinasabi ng season numbers?

Team profile ito batay sa season data at form. Lalabas lang ang match-flow statistics kapag tapos na ang fixture.

Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
2.09Goals na na-score / match1.61
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
1.35Goals na na-concede / match1
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
58%Average na possession55%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
5.65Shots on target bawat match4.65
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais

Stats ng teamsalin ang mas efficient na team?

Comparison ng attack at defence ng dalawang teams sa current season.

14.22Shots bawat match11.87
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
5.65Shots on target4.65
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
14.7%Shot conversion13.6%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
58%Possession55%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
1.65xG for1.39
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
1.15xG against1.27
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais

Quality ng shooting

Olympique Marseille: DominantOlympique Lyonnais: Efficient ang finishing
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
Accuracy ng shots on target40%39%
Quality ng chances (xG bawat shot)0.120.12
Finishing (goals bawat shot on target)0.370.35

Kapag nasa 0.08 ang xG per shot, kadalasan long-range attempts iyon; ang 0.15+ ay karaniwang chances sa box. Galing sa possession, shot volume at conversion ang style label.

* Ipinapakita ng xG (expected goals) kung ilang goals ang inaasahang makuha ng team mula sa chances nito. Kapag mas mataas ang actual goals kaysa xG, above average ang finishing; kapag mas mababa, may missed chances.

Form ng teamsalin ang mas maganda ang current form?

Last five matches at season record, overall at may home-away split.

Olympique Lyonnais ang 140% better sa: form sa last 5 matches.

1 pts / match - Olympique Marseille · 2.4 pts / match - Olympique Lyonnais

Olympique Marseille
WDLDL
Result split ngayong season
52% W17% D30% L
Season record (W-D-L)
12-4-7
1.74 pts / match · goal difference +17
Last 5 (W-D-L)
1-2-2
1.00 pts / match
Record ng team sa home (W-D-L)
7-3-1
Last 5 sa home
2-2-1
DWLWD
Averages sa last 5 matches
Goals na na-score: 1.4Goals na na-concede: 2.4xG: 1.45Opponent xG: 1.36BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 80%
Olympique Lyonnais
WWWWL
Result split ngayong season
61% W13% D26% L
Season record (W-D-L)
14-3-6
1.96 pts / match · goal difference +14
Last 5 (W-D-L)
4-0-1
2.40 pts / match
Record ng team sa away (W-D-L)
5-3-4
Last 5 sa away
3-0-2
LWWWL
Averages sa last 5 matches
Goals na na-score: 2.0Goals na na-concede: 1.0xG: 0.97Opponent xG: 1.46BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 40%

Goalspaano nag-i-score at nagko-concede ang dalawang teams?

Ilang goals ang sini-score at kino-concede ng dalawang teams, pati kung gaano kadalas silang mag-clean sheet o hindi maka-score.

Olympique Marseille ang 30% better sa: goals scored per match.

2.09 goals / match - Olympique Marseille · 1.61 goals / match - Olympique Lyonnais

Olympique Lyonnais ang 35% better sa: goals conceded per match.

1.35 goals / match - Olympique Marseille · 1 goals / match - Olympique Lyonnais

Scoring profile ng Olympique Marseille: mixed

Nakaka-score ang Olympique Marseille sa 74% ng matches (17 sa 23 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Olympique Lyonnais sa 52% (12 sa 23 matches).

Scoring profile ng Olympique Lyonnais: napakalakas

Nakaka-score ang Olympique Lyonnais sa 87% ng matches (20 sa 23 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Olympique Marseille sa 26% (6 sa 23 matches).

48Goals na na-score (season)37
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
31Goals na na-concede (season)23
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
3.43Average ng goals sa match2.61
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
7Goals na na-score (last 5)10
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
12Goals na na-concede (last 5)5
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais

Gaano kadalas silang maka-score ng hindi bababa sa...

74%1 goal87%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
57%2 goals43%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
35%3 goals22%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
22%4 goals4%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais

Gaano kadalas silang mag-concede ng hindi bababa sa...

74%1 goal48%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
48%2 goals30%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
4%3 goals22%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
4%4 goals0%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais

* Kasama sa statistics ang home at away matches ng dalawang teams sa current season.

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)gaano kadalas nakaka-score ang parehong teams?

Gaano kadalas may goals ang magkabilang panig sa matches ng teams, kumpara sa league average.

48%
Average ng liga

Mga pattern ng goal

17%BTTS sa half-time22%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
13%BTTS sa parehong halves13%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
39%Naka-score sa parehong halves35%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais

BTTS at goal count

48%Min. 3 goals at BTTS43%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
17%Min. 3 goals na walang BTTS9%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
60%BTTS - last 540%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais

Mga goal line (Over/Under)gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal lines ang kanilang matches?

Gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal thresholds ang matches ng teams, sa full match at bawat half.

Buong match - comparison ng teams (Over)

1st half

78%Min. 1 goal bago ang half-time74%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
43%Min. 2 goals bago ang half-time30%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
13%Min. 3 goals bago ang half-time13%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais

2nd half

83%Min. 1 goal pagkatapos ng half-time70%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
52%Min. 2 goals pagkatapos ng half-time39%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
43%Min. 3 goals pagkatapos ng half-time17%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais

Mga half ng matchsaang half mas madalas silang maka-score?

Paano nahahati sa first at second half ang performance: goals, points, clean sheets at state sa half-time.

Olympique Lyonnais ang 11% better sa: form sa first half (half-time points).

1.61 pts / match - Olympique Marseille · 1.78 pts / match - Olympique Lyonnais

Olympique Marseille - state sa half-time
43% nangunguna30% tabla26% nahuhuli
Olympique Lyonnais - state sa half-time
48% nangunguna35% tabla17% nahuhuli

Bago ang half-time (1st half)

1.61Points bawat match (1st half)1.78
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
0.91Goals na na-score (1st half)0.87
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
0.52Goals na na-concede (1st half)0.39
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
1.43Average ng goals (1st half)1.26
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
57%Clean sheet bago ang half-time70%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
48%Walang goal bago ang half-time35%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais

Pagkatapos ng half-time (2nd half)

1.57Points bawat match (2nd half)1.48
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
1.17Goals na na-score (2nd half)0.74
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
0.83Goals na na-concede (2nd half)0.61
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
2Average ng goals (2nd half)1.35
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
35%Clean sheet pagkatapos ng half-time65%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais
39%Walang goal pagkatapos ng half-time43%
Olympique MarseilleOlympique Lyonnais

Olympique Marseille - mga result sa second half

43% W26% D30% L
37
Half-time points
21
Half-time goals
+9
Goal difference sa 1st half
36
Second-half points
+8
Goal difference sa 2nd half
1.61
PPG bago ang half-time
Lead holding121%

Leading sa half-time sa 43% ng matches at nananalo sa 52%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.3

Nagko-concede ng 0.3 more goals per match pagkatapos ng half-time - bumababa ang defensive level sa second half.

Olympique Lyonnais - mga result sa second half

35% W43% D22% L
41
Half-time points
20
Half-time goals
+11
Goal difference sa 1st half
34
Second-half points
+3
Goal difference sa 2nd half
1.78
PPG bago ang half-time
Lead holding127%

Leading sa half-time sa 48% ng matches at nananalo sa 61%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.2

Nagko-concede ng 0.2 more goals per match pagkatapos ng half-time - bumababa ang defensive level sa second half.

Olympique Marseille - last 5 matches per half
1st half2nd half
Points bawat match1.800.40
Goals na na-score / match0.80.6
Goals na na-concede / match0.81.6
Average ng goals sa match1.62.2
1 goal100%80%
2 goals60%80%
3 goals0%60%
Clean sheet60%20%
No goal40%40%
Goal difference0-5
Half-time: 60% nangunguna - 0% tabla - 40% nahuhuli
2nd half: 0% panalo - 40% tabla - 60% talo
BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 0% - Total goals sa half-time: 4
Olympique Lyonnais - last 5 matches per half
1st half2nd half
Points bawat match2.401.20
Goals na na-score / match1.40.6
Goals na na-concede / match0.40.6
Average ng goals sa match1.81.2
1 goal100%60%
2 goals20%40%
3 goals20%20%
Clean sheet60%60%
No goal20%40%
Goal difference+50
Half-time: 80% nangunguna - 0% tabla - 20% nahuhuli
2nd half: 20% panalo - 60% tabla - 20% talo
BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 20% - Total goals sa half-time: 7

* Ipinapakita ng colors sa tables ang event frequency: green ay common, yellow ay moderate, red ay rare. Frequency ito, hindi team rating.

Goals ayon sa minutokailan dumarating ang goals?

Mga phase ng match kung kailan pinakamadalas maka-score at mag-concede ang dalawang teams.

Olympique Marseille
Na-scoreNa-concede
6
4
0-15
9
5
16-30
6
3
31-45
6
3
46-60
9
5
61-75
12
11
76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 76-90 (11). Balance ng late goals (76-90): +1 - malakas sa late phases.

Olympique Lyonnais
Na-scoreNa-concede
4
1
0-15
7
2
16-30
9
6
31-45
7
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
10
76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 31-45 (9 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 76-90 (10). Balance ng late goals (76-90): -3 - mahina sa late phases.

* Kasama sa buckets na 31-45 at 76-90 ang added-time goals.

Karagdagang team indicatorsano ang ipinapakita ng xG, efficiency at form?

Comparison ng chance quality, results at trends mula sa completed matches ngayong season.

Profile ng match

3.02
Estimated na goals
attack laban sa opponent defence
1.5 : 1.5
Estimated na hati ng goals
home : away
108%
Pace kumpara sa liga
100% = average ng liga
46%
Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)
average mula sa seasons ng dalawang teams
-67%
Derby effect
H2H goals kumpara sa typical matches
64%
BTTS estimate
mula sa scoring frequency ng dalawang teams
3%
0:0 risk
mga 1 sa bawat 33 matches
0-1
Pinakakaraniwang goal range
attack vs defence sa magkabilang panig

Olympique Marseille

Net xG balance
Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.
+0.50
Results kumpara sa xG
Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.
+0.24
Points kumpara sa goal balance
Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.
-8.7 pts
Efficiency ng finishing
Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.
+0.44
Efficiency ng defence
Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.
-0.20
Attack vs league
Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.
129%
Defence vs league
Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.
115%
Trend ng form
Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.
-0.74
Mas malakas sa second half?
Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.
+0.3
Mga late goal
25% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 13% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.
25%

Olympique Lyonnais

Net xG balance
Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.
+0.12
Results kumpara sa xG
Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.
+0.49
Points kumpara sa goal balance
Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.
-4.8 pts
Efficiency ng finishing
Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.
+0.22
Efficiency ng defence
Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.
+0.27
Attack vs league
Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.
138%
Defence vs league
Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.
62%
Trend ng form
Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.
+0.44
Mas malakas sa second half?
Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.
-0.1
Mga late goal
19% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 11% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.
19%

* Ang estimated goals, goal split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk at goal range ay galing sa public season averages at frequencies ng dalawang teams. Statistical match profile ito, hindi private model prediction o betting pick. Ang iba pang indicators ay naglalarawan ng completed matches sa season.

Context ng ligamataas ba ang scoring sa league na ito?

Paano nagko-compare ang dalawang teams sa league-wide averages ng Ligue 1.

Teams kumpara sa liga

Olympique MarseilleLigaOlympique Lyonnais
Average ng goals sa match 3.432.79 2.61
Parehong teams naka-score 48%48% 43%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) 65%51% 52%
Clean sheets 26%29% 52%
Goal bago ang half-time 78%71% 74%
Goal pagkatapos ng half-time 83%77% 70%

^ green = mas mataas sa league average, ˇ red = mas mababa sa league average. Direction ng gap ang ipinapakita nito, hindi team rating.

2.79
Average goals bawat match
48%
Parehong teams naka-score
51%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
29%
Clean sheets
1.62
Home goals bawat match
1.17
Away goals bawat match
+38%
Advantage ng home attack
+28%
Advantage ng home defence
+21%
Kabuuang home advantage
Goals sa 1st half (buong liga)
71%
1 goal
33%
2 goals
13%
3 goals
4%
4 goals
Goals sa 2nd half (buong liga)
77%
1 goal
42%
2 goals
24%
3 goals
9%
4 goals

Lineups at player events

Verified starters, substitutes at recorded events para sa match.

Timeline ng match

Mga goal, card at substitution ayon sa pagkakasunod ng oras.

  1. Olympique LyonnaisYellow cardClinton Mukoni Mata Pedro Lourenço
  2. Olympique LyonnaisYellow cardTyler Morton
  3. Olympique MarseilleSubstitutionPumasok: Igor Guilherme Barbosa da PaixãoLumabas: Quinten Ryan Crispito Timber
  4. Olympique LyonnaisSubstitutionPumasok: Rémi Stéphane HimbertLumabas: Roman Yaremchuk
  5. Olympique MarseilleSubstitutionPumasok: Ethan Chidiebere NwaneriLumabas: Hamed Junior Traoru00e8
  6. Olympique MarseilleYellow cardGeoffrey Kondogbia
  7. Olympique MarseilleYellow cardNayef Aguerd
  8. Olympique MarseilleSubstitutionPumasok: Benjamin PavardLumabas: Timothy Tarpeh Weah
  9. Olympique MarseilleSubstitutionPumasok: Himad AbdelliLumabas: Geoffrey Kondogbia
  10. Olympique LyonnaisSubstitutionPumasok: Abner Vinicius Da Silva SantosLumabas: Nicolás Tagliafico
  11. Olympique MarseilleSubstitutionPumasok: Tochukwu NadiLumabas: Mason Greenwood
  12. Olympique MarseilleYellow cardHimad Abdelli

Referee at coaches

Buksan ang season profiles para makita ang match record, goals at discipline trends.

Konteksto ng referee

Season averages at hatian ng resulta sa mga match na hinawakan ng referee na ito.

Jérôme BrisardMatches officiated: 15
5.2Cards kada match
0Penalties kada match
1 / X / 267%Home wins7%Draws27%Away wins

Head-to-head

Nakaraang meeting: Olympique Marseille 0 - 0 - 1 Olympique Lyonnais. Average ng goals 1.00, both teams scored sa 0% matches.

Olympique Lyonnais
1 : 0
Olympique de Marseille

Mga madalas itanong

Ano ang result ng Olympique Marseille vs Olympique Lyonnais?

Natapos ang Ligue 1 match sa score na Olympique Marseille 3:2 Olympique Lyonnais. Nasa page na ito ang match statistics, half-by-half data at head-to-head record.

Ano ang ipinapakita ng goal statistics bago ang Olympique Marseille vs Olympique Lyonnais?

Olympique Marseille scores 2.09 goals per match at Olympique Lyonnais 1.61. Ang Ligue 1 average ay 2.79 goals, may Over 2.5 sa 51% ng matches. BTTS: Olympique Marseille 48%, Olympique Lyonnais 43%.

Ano ang current form ng Olympique Marseille at Olympique Lyonnais?

Sa last 5 matches, ang Olympique Marseille ay 1-2-2 (1.00 points per match), habang ang Olympique Lyonnais ay 4-0-1 (2.40 points per match).

Saan makikita ang betting pick at full analysis ng Olympique Marseille vs Olympique Lyonnais?

Nasa page na ito ang statistical context: form, H2H, goals, BTTS at Over/Under. Makikita sa NoFluffPicks app ang betting pick, value bet at full reasoning.