PK-35 vs Haka: mga stats ng match

Pinapaboran ko ang home win ng PK-35. May klarong home advantage sila: 100% wins sa home (1 win) at average 4.0 goals per home match with 6.0 total goals per home game. PK-35 averages 11 shots per match, 6 on target, conversion rate 36%, na nagreresulta sa 8 goals sa last 5 matches (1.6 per match) at average 1.4 points per match sa period na iyon. Haka, na nasa 6th place, ay 2-1-2 sa last 5 with 6 goals scored at 6 conceded (1.2 scored/1.2 conceded per match), pero ang away stats nila ay blank (lahat 0), na nagpapahirap mag-evaluate ng kanilang away form. Note din ang discrepancy ng PK-35 sa pagitan ng xG at actual goals: xG 1.55 vs xG against 1.95 at average 2.0 goals conceded per match — nagpapakita na efektibo sila sa finishing pero may defensive gaps, kaya posibleng open game. Given PK-35 shooting advantage at home efficiency at ang uncertainty mula sa missing away data ng Haka, I assign 60% chance for home win, 20% draw, at 20% away win.