Bulgaria - First League05/22/2026, 03:00 PMStadion SlavijaUpdated ang data noong September 11, 2026

Slavia Sofia vs Montana: mga stats ng match

2 : 0half-time 1:0

Slavia Sofia vs Montana: form, goals at mahahalagang stats

Mahahalagang detalye ng match

Naglaro ang Slavia Sofia laban sa Montana sa First League (Bulgaria). Nilaro ang match noong 22 May 2026. Venue: Stadion Slavija. Final score: 2:0.

Current na form

Slavia Sofia: 1-0-4 sa last five matches at 0.60 points per match. Montana: 0-3-2 at 0.60 points per match.

Stats ng goals

Slavia Sofia ay may 1.11 goals na na-score at 1.22 na na-concede bawat match. Ang Montana naman ay may 0.58 na na-score at 1.47 na na-concede. Average ng liga: 2.30 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Slavia Sofia 47%, Montana 39%. Over 2.5: Slavia Sofia 44%, Montana 39%. League level: BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 43%.

xG, shots at style ng laro

Slavia Sofia ang may mas mataas na xG per match: 1.45 vs 1.16. May average na 11.5 shots bawat match ang Slavia Sofia, habang 8.9 naman ang Montana.

First at second half

Nangunguna ang Slavia Sofia sa half-time sa 33% ng matches at nakaka-score ng 0.47 goals pagkatapos ng break. Para sa Montana, 14% at 0.25 ang mga value.

Goals ayon sa minuto

Slavia Sofia: 16-30 (10 goals). Montana: 16-30 (6 goals). Historical goal distribution ito, hindi prediction ng exact goal minute.

Context ng liga

First League: 2.30 goals per match, BTTS 43% at Over 2.5 43%.

Head-to-head record

Bago ang match na ito, may 2 previous head-to-head matches sa database. Ang record ay 1-1-0, average goals 1.50, at BTTS 50%.

Archived na pre-match analysis

Ginawa ang analysis na ito bago ang kick-off. Ang conclusions ay base lang sa data na available bago ang match at hindi kasama ang final result o post-match statistics.

General match analysis

Bet ko ang home win ng Slavia Sofia. Slavia is 9th sa table vs 16th Montana at may 40 goals scored sa season kumpara sa 21 goals ng opponents. Home form ng Slavia: 1.28 goals per match at 4.06 shots on target from 12.06 attempts, habang Montana away: 0.50 goals at 2.94 shots on target from 8.56 attempts. Conversion rate ng Slavia home 11% vs 6% ng Montana. Guests fail to score in 56% of away matches vs 39% ng ganitong matches for hosts. Sa last 5 matches both teams have 0.6 points per game, pero Slavia had 3 points and conceded 10, Montana 5 points and conceded 8; with xG 1.49 (Slavia home) vs 1.16 (Montana away) at average goals conceded 1.11 vs 1.61, advantage is clearly Slavia.

Tingnan ang statistical overview

Ayon sa half

1 : 0

1st half

1 : 0

2nd half

Stats ng match

41Possession (%)59

Slavia SofiaMontana

10Shots10

Slavia SofiaMontana

5Shots on target0

Slavia SofiaMontana

1.23xG0.99

Slavia SofiaMontana

4Corners8

Slavia SofiaMontana

33Dangerous attacks48

Slavia SofiaMontana

12Fouls10

Slavia SofiaMontana

0Cards0

Slavia SofiaMontana

Pre-match na profile— ano ang sinasabi ng season numbers?

Team profile ito batay sa season data at form. Lalabas lang ang match-flow statistics kapag tapos na ang fixture.

1.19Points bawat match0.64

Slavia SofiaMontana

1.11Goals na na-score / match0.58

Slavia SofiaMontana

1.22Goals na na-concede / match1.47

Slavia SofiaMontana

1.45xG for1.16

Slavia SofiaMontana

46%Average na possession44%

Slavia SofiaMontana

3.97Shots on target bawat match3.03

Slavia SofiaMontana

28%Clean sheets25%

Slavia SofiaMontana

47%Parehong teams naka-score39%

Slavia SofiaMontana

Stats ng teams— alin ang mas efficient na team?

Comparison ng attack at defence ng dalawang teams sa current season.

11.47Shots bawat match8.94

Slavia SofiaMontana

3.97Shots on target3.03

Slavia SofiaMontana

9.7%Shot conversion6.5%

Slavia SofiaMontana

46%Possession44%

Slavia SofiaMontana

1.45xG for1.16

Slavia SofiaMontana

1.83xG against1.59

Slavia SofiaMontana

Quality ng shooting

Slavia Sofia: Balanced ang styleMontana: Balanced ang style

	Slavia Sofia	Montana
Accuracy ng shots on target	35%	34%
Quality ng chances (xG bawat shot)	0.13	0.13
Finishing (goals bawat shot on target)	0.28	0.19

Kapag nasa 0.08 ang xG per shot, kadalasan long-range attempts iyon; ang 0.15+ ay karaniwang chances sa box. Galing sa possession, shot volume at conversion ang style label.

* Ipinapakita ng xG (expected goals) kung ilang goals ang inaasahang makuha ng team mula sa chances nito. Kapag mas mataas ang actual goals kaysa xG, above average ang finishing; kapag mas mababa, may missed chances.

Form ng teams— alin ang mas maganda ang current form?

Last five matches at season record, overall at may home-away split.

Slavia Sofia

LWLLL

Result split ngayong season

31% W28% D42% L

Season record (W-D-L)

11-10-15

1.19 pts / match · goal difference -4

Last 5 (W-D-L)

1-0-4

0.60 pts / match

Record ng team sa home (W-D-L)

7-5-6

Last 5 sa home

1-1-3

LLDWL

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 0.6Goals na na-concede: 2.0xG: 1.53Opponent xG: 1.74BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 60%

Montana

DDDLL

Walang win sa last 5 matches

Result split ngayong season

11% W31% D58% L

Season record (W-D-L)

4-11-21

0.64 pts / match · goal difference -32

Last 5 (W-D-L)

0-3-2

0.60 pts / match

Record ng team sa away (W-D-L)

1-5-12

Last 5 sa away

0-2-3

LLDDL

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 1.0Goals na na-concede: 1.6xG: 1.20Opponent xG: 1.62BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 40%

Goals— paano nag-i-score at nagko-concede ang dalawang teams?

Ilang goals ang sini-score at kino-concede ng dalawang teams, pati kung gaano kadalas silang mag-clean sheet o hindi maka-score.

Slavia Sofia ang 91% better sa: goals scored per match.

1.11 goals / match - Slavia Sofia · 0.58 goals / match - Montana

Slavia Sofia ang 20% better sa: goals conceded per match.

1.22 goals / match - Slavia Sofia · 1.47 goals / match - Montana

Scoring profile ng Slavia Sofia: malakas

Nakaka-score ang Slavia Sofia sa 67% ng matches (24 sa 36 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Montana sa 25% (9 sa 36 matches).

Scoring profile ng Montana: mixed

Nakaka-score ang Montana sa 50% ng matches (18 sa 36 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Slavia Sofia sa 28% (10 sa 36 matches).

40Goals na na-score (season)21

Slavia SofiaMontana

44Goals na na-concede (season)53

Slavia SofiaMontana

2.33Average ng goals sa match2.06

Slavia SofiaMontana

3Goals na na-score (last 5)5

Slavia SofiaMontana

10Goals na na-concede (last 5)8

Slavia SofiaMontana

Slavia Sofia

28%

Clean sheets10 sa 36 matches

33%

No goal12 sa 36 matches

Montana

25%

Clean sheets9 sa 36 matches

50%

No goal18 sa 36 matches

Gaano kadalas silang maka-score ng hindi bababa sa...

67%1 goal50%

Slavia SofiaMontana

31%2 goals8%

Slavia SofiaMontana

11%3 goals0%

Slavia SofiaMontana

3%4 goals0%

Slavia SofiaMontana

Gaano kadalas silang mag-concede ng hindi bababa sa...

72%1 goal75%

Slavia SofiaMontana

42%2 goals42%

Slavia SofiaMontana

8%3 goals19%

Slavia SofiaMontana

0%4 goals6%

Slavia SofiaMontana

* Kasama sa statistics ang home at away matches ng dalawang teams sa current season.

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)— gaano kadalas nakaka-score ang parehong teams?

Gaano kadalas may goals ang magkabilang panig sa matches ng teams, kumpara sa league average.

47%

Slavia Sofia - BTTS17 sa 36 matches

39%

Montana - BTTS14 sa 36 matches

43%

Average ng liga

Mga pattern ng goal

19%BTTS sa half-time14%

Slavia SofiaMontana

0%BTTS sa parehong halves0%

Slavia SofiaMontana

17%Naka-score sa parehong halves3%

Slavia SofiaMontana

BTTS at goal count

33%Min. 3 goals at BTTS28%

Slavia SofiaMontana

11%Min. 3 goals na walang BTTS11%

Slavia SofiaMontana

40%BTTS - last 560%

Slavia SofiaMontana

Mga goal line (Over/Under)— gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal lines ang kanilang matches?

Gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal thresholds ang matches ng teams, sa full match at bawat half.

Buong match - comparison ng teams (Over)

92%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)86%

Slavia SofiaMontana

81%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)56%

Slavia SofiaMontana

44%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)39%

Slavia SofiaMontana

17%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)17%

Slavia SofiaMontana

0%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)6%

Slavia SofiaMontana

Over / Under - Slavia Sofia

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 92%Under 8%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 81%Under 19%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 44%Under 56%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 17%Under 83%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 0%Under 100%

Over / Under - Montana

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 86%Under 14%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 56%Under 44%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 39%Under 61%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 17%Under 83%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 6%Under 94%

1st half

72%Min. 1 goal bago ang half-time61%

Slavia SofiaMontana

36%Min. 2 goals bago ang half-time33%

Slavia SofiaMontana

6%Min. 3 goals bago ang half-time11%

Slavia SofiaMontana

2nd half

83%Min. 1 goal pagkatapos ng half-time61%

Slavia SofiaMontana

28%Min. 2 goals pagkatapos ng half-time31%

Slavia SofiaMontana

8%Min. 3 goals pagkatapos ng half-time6%

Slavia SofiaMontana

Mga half ng match— saang half mas madalas silang maka-score?

Paano nahahati sa first at second half ang performance: goals, points, clean sheets at state sa half-time.

Slavia Sofia ang 54% better sa: form sa first half (half-time points).

1.42 pts / match - Slavia Sofia · 0.92 pts / match - Montana

Slavia Sofia - state sa half-time

33% nangunguna42% tabla25% nahuhuli

Montana - state sa half-time

14% nangunguna50% tabla36% nahuhuli

Bago ang half-time (1st half)

1.42Points bawat match (1st half)0.92

Slavia SofiaMontana

0.64Goals na na-score (1st half)0.33

Slavia SofiaMontana

0.5Goals na na-concede (1st half)0.75

Slavia SofiaMontana

1.14Average ng goals (1st half)1.08

Slavia SofiaMontana

56%Clean sheet bago ang half-time53%

Slavia SofiaMontana

53%Walang goal bago ang half-time72%

Slavia SofiaMontana

Pagkatapos ng half-time (2nd half)

1.11Points bawat match (2nd half)0.72

Slavia SofiaMontana

0.47Goals na na-score (2nd half)0.25

Slavia SofiaMontana

0.72Goals na na-concede (2nd half)0.72

Slavia SofiaMontana

1.19Average ng goals (2nd half)0.97

Slavia SofiaMontana

42%Clean sheet pagkatapos ng half-time44%

Slavia SofiaMontana

64%Walang goal pagkatapos ng half-time75%

Slavia SofiaMontana

Slavia Sofia - mga result sa second half

31% W19% D50% L

Half-time points

Half-time goals

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

-9

Goal difference sa 2nd half

1.42

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding94%

Leading sa half-time sa 33% ng matches at nananalo sa 31%. Karaniwang napoprotektahan ang lead hanggang full-time.

Defence after half-time+0.2

Nagko-concede ng 0.2 more goals per match pagkatapos ng half-time - bumababa ang defensive level sa second half.

Montana - mga result sa second half

6% W56% D39% L

Half-time points

Half-time goals

-15

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

-17

Goal difference sa 2nd half

0.92

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding79%

Leading sa half-time sa 14% ng matches at nananalo sa 11%. Minsan nawawala ang lead pagkatapos ng half-time.

Defence after half-time-0.0

Stable ang defence sa buong match.

Slavia Sofia - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	0.80	0.20
Goals na na-score / match	0.4	0.2
Goals na na-concede / match	0.8	1.2
Average ng goals sa match	1.2	1.4
1 goal	100%	100%
2 goals	20%	40%
3 goals	0%	0%
Clean sheet	20%	0%
No goal	60%	80%
Goal difference	-2	-5

Half-time: 20% nangunguna - 20% tabla - 60% nahuhuli

2nd half: 0% panalo - 20% tabla - 80% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 20% - Total goals sa half-time: 2

Montana - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	1.60	0.20
Goals na na-score / match	0.8	0.2
Goals na na-concede / match	0.2	1.4
Average ng goals sa match	1.0	1.6
1 goal	60%	100%
2 goals	40%	60%
3 goals	0%	0%
Clean sheet	80%	0%
No goal	60%	80%
Goal difference	+3	-6

Half-time: 40% nangunguna - 40% tabla - 20% nahuhuli

2nd half: 0% panalo - 20% tabla - 80% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 0% - Total goals sa half-time: 4

* Ipinapakita ng colors sa tables ang event frequency: green ay common, yellow ay moderate, red ay rare. Frequency ito, hindi team rating.

Goals ayon sa minuto— kailan dumarating ang goals?

Mga phase ng match kung kailan pinakamadalas maka-score at mag-concede ang dalawang teams.

Slavia Sofia

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 16-30 (10 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 76-90 (13). Balance ng late goals (76-90): -6 - mahina sa late phases.

Montana

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 16-30 (6 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 16-30 (11). Balance ng late goals (76-90): -7 - mahina sa late phases.

* Kasama sa buckets na 31-45 at 76-90 ang added-time goals.

Karagdagang team indicators— ano ang ipinapakita ng xG, efficiency at form?

Comparison ng chance quality, results at trends mula sa completed matches ngayong season.

Profile ng match

2.19

Estimated na goals

attack laban sa opponent defence

1.3 : 0.9

Estimated na hati ng goals

home : away

95%

Pace kumpara sa liga

100% = average ng liga

43%

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)

average mula sa seasons ng dalawang teams

-32%

Derby effect

H2H goals kumpara sa typical matches

34%

BTTS estimate

mula sa scoring frequency ng dalawang teams

17%

0:0 risk

mga 1 sa bawat 6 matches

0-1

Pinakakaraniwang goal range

attack vs defence sa magkabilang panig

Slavia Sofia

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

-0.38

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

+0.27

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

-5.9 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

-0.34

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

+0.61

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

90%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

115%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

-0.59

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

-0.2

Mga late goal

18% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 13% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

18%

Montana

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

-0.43

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

-0.46

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

+8.3 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

-0.58

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

+0.12

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

55%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

119%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

-0.04

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

-0.1

Mga late goal

5% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 14% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

* Ang estimated goals, goal split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk at goal range ay galing sa public season averages at frequencies ng dalawang teams. Statistical match profile ito, hindi private model prediction o betting pick. Ang iba pang indicators ay naglalarawan ng completed matches sa season.

Context ng liga— mataas ba ang scoring sa league na ito?

Paano nagko-compare ang dalawang teams sa league-wide averages ng First League.

Teams kumpara sa liga

	Slavia Sofia	Liga	Montana
Average ng goals sa match	• 2.33	2.30	▼ 2.06
Parehong teams naka-score	▲ 47%	43%	▼ 39%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)	• 44%	43%	▼ 39%
Clean sheets	▼ 28%	35%	▼ 25%
Goal bago ang half-time	▲ 72%	63%	▼ 61%
Goal pagkatapos ng half-time	▲ 83%	74%	▼ 61%

^ green = mas mataas sa league average, ˇ red = mas mababa sa league average. Direction ng gap ang ipinapakita nito, hindi team rating.

2.30

Average goals bawat match

43%

Parehong teams naka-score

43%

Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)

35%

Clean sheets

1.24

Home goals bawat match

1.06

Away goals bawat match

+17%

Advantage ng home attack

+15%

Advantage ng home defence

+12%

Kabuuang home advantage

Goals sa 1st half (buong liga)

63%

1 goal

27%

2 goals

3 goals

4 goals

Goals sa 2nd half (buong liga)

74%

1 goal

36%

2 goals

14%

3 goals

4 goals

Lineups at player events

Verified starters, substitutes at recorded events para sa match.

Home team

Starting lineup

4Nikola Savić 7Emiliyan Boykov Gogev⚽ 1 8Valentin YotovA 1 · lumabas 59'9Roberto Ilievlumabas 76'13Ilian Stefanov 18Kristiyan Balov⚽ 1 · lumabas 71'22Maksimilian Lazarovlumabas 59'23Boris TodorovA 1 · lumabas 71'24Lazar Marin 87Diego Gustavo Ferraresso Scheda 99Ivan Georgiev Andonov

Substitutes

1Georgi Stoyanov Petkovpumasok 1'

2Thang Chung Chanpumasok 1'

3Lyubomir Yordanov Kostovpumasok 1'

5Georgi Shopovpumasok 71'6Luka Ivanovpumasok 1'11Mouhamed Dossopumasok 59'14Marko Miletićpumasok 76'20Jordan Semedo Varelapumasok 59'77Emil Stoevpumasok 71'

Away team

Starting lineup

5Ivaylo Markov 7Boris Aleksandrov Dimitrovlumabas 71'10Aleksandar Todorov Todorovlumabas 46'13Jorginho Soares 14Dimitar Burov 16David Carmona Sierra 17Ivan Kokonovlumabas 57'23Anton Tungarovlumabas 86'24Angelos Tsigaras 27Tomás Alexandre Rente Azevedo 30Vasil Simeonov

Substitutes

8Petar Petrov Atanasovpumasok 57'11Victor Hugo de Oliveira Teisterpumasok 1'12Nikolay Lachezarov Krastevpumasok 1'19Vladislav Dimitrov Tsekovpumasok 71'22Ibrahim Beji Muhammadpumasok 46'

26Radoslav Galin Slavchevpumasok 86'

Timeline ng match

Mga goal, card at substitution ayon sa pagkakasunod ng oras.

45+3'
Slavia SofiaGoalEmiliyan Boykov GogevAssist: Valentin Yotov
46'
MontanaSubstitutionPumasok: Ibrahim Beji MuhammadLumabas: Aleksandar Todorov Todorov
57'
MontanaSubstitutionPumasok: Petar Petrov AtanasovLumabas: Ivan Kokonov
65'
Slavia SofiaGoalKristiyan BalovAssist: Boris Todorov
71'
MontanaSubstitutionPumasok: Vladislav Dimitrov TsekovLumabas: Boris Aleksandrov Dimitrov
76'
Slavia SofiaSubstitutionPumasok: Marko MiletićLumabas: Roberto Iliev
86'
MontanaSubstitutionPumasok: Radoslav Galin SlavchevLumabas: Anton Tungarov

Referee at coaches

Buksan ang season profiles para makita ang match record, goals at discipline trends.

RefereeKristiyan Mladenov Todorov Home coachRatko Dostanic Away coachAtanas Atanasov

Head-to-head

Mga recent meeting (2): Slavia Sofia 1 - 1 - 0 Montana. Average ng goals 1.50, both teams scored sa 50% matches.

PFC Montana

0 : 004/16/2026

PFC Slavia Sofia

2 : 111/09/2025

PFC Montana

Mga madalas itanong

Ano ang result ng Slavia Sofia vs Montana?

Natapos ang First League match sa score na Slavia Sofia 2:0 Montana. Nasa page na ito ang match statistics, half-by-half data at head-to-head record.

Ano ang head-to-head record ng Slavia Sofia at Montana?

Sa huling 2 head-to-head matches, nanalo ang Slavia Sofia ng 1, ang Montana ng 0, at 1 ang draws. Average goals: 1.50; BTTS: 50%.

Ano ang ipinapakita ng goal statistics bago ang Slavia Sofia vs Montana?

Slavia Sofia scores 1.11 goals per match at Montana 0.58. Ang First League average ay 2.30 goals, may Over 2.5 sa 43% ng matches. BTTS: Slavia Sofia 47%, Montana 39%.

Ano ang current form ng Slavia Sofia at Montana?

Sa last 5 matches, ang Slavia Sofia ay 1-0-4 (0.60 points per match), habang ang Montana ay 0-3-2 (0.60 points per match).

Saan makikita ang betting pick at full analysis ng Slavia Sofia vs Montana?

Nasa page na ito ang statistical context: form, H2H, goals, BTTS at Over/Under. Makikita sa NoFluffPicks app ang betting pick, value bet at full reasoning.