Germany - 3. Liga03/03/2026, 06:00 PMUpdated ang data noong September 13, 2026

Verl vs Jahn Regensburg: mga stats ng match

Verl

1 : 2half-time 0:2

Jahn Regensburg

165%(1.54)

X22%(4.30)

213%(5.00)

BTTS Over/Under HT/FT

Pick: 1Talo

Pick score:63.69

Value:0.10%

Ang Verl ay nagpapakita ng definitely better home form with 58% win rate at impressive +18 goal difference sa home matches. Nag-a-average ang hosts ng 2.67 goals per home match with only 8% scoreless games, proving their offensive efficiency. Ang Jahn Regensburg ay very weak sa away games with 62% losses, negative goal difference (-7), at alarming streak ng five consecutive away defeats. Ang difference sa possession quality (65% vs 48%) at higher conversion rate ng Verl (17% vs 8%) ay pabor din sa hosts. Considering all stats, lalo na ang dominance ng Verl sa home at struggles ng Regensburg sa away, ang home victory ang most probable scenario.

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Verl vs Jahn Regensburg: form, goals at mahahalagang stats

Mahahalagang detalye ng match

Naglaro ang Verl laban sa Jahn Regensburg sa 3. Liga (Germany). Nilaro ang match noong 3 March 2026. Final score: 1:2.

Current na form

Verl: 2-1-2 sa last five matches at 1.40 points per match. Jahn Regensburg: 2-2-1 at 1.60 points per match.

Stats ng goals

Verl ay may 2.31 goals na na-score at 1.46 na na-concede bawat match. Ang Jahn Regensburg naman ay may 1.31 na na-score at 1.50 na na-concede. Average ng liga: 3.13 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Verl 77%, Jahn Regensburg 42%. Over 2.5: Verl 77%, Jahn Regensburg 54%. League level: BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 63%.

xG, shots at style ng laro

Verl ang may mas mataas na xG per match: 1.81 vs 1.58. May average na 15.2 shots bawat match ang Verl, habang 13.1 naman ang Jahn Regensburg.

First at second half

Nangunguna ang Verl sa half-time sa 42% ng matches at nakaka-score ng 1.35 goals pagkatapos ng break. Para sa Jahn Regensburg, 27% at 0.88 ang mga value.

Goals ayon sa minuto

Verl: 76-90+ (15 goals). Jahn Regensburg: 61-75 (10 goals). Historical goal distribution ito, hindi prediction ng exact goal minute.

Context ng liga

3. Liga: 3.13 goals per match, BTTS 64% at Over 2.5 63%.

Head-to-head record

Bago ang match na ito, may 1 previous head-to-head matches sa database. Ang record ay 0-0-1, average goals 2.00, at BTTS 0%.

Archived na pre-match analysis

Ginawa ang analysis na ito bago ang kick-off. Ang conclusions ay base lang sa data na available bago ang match at hindi kasama ang final result o post-match statistics.

General match analysis

Tingnan ang statistical overview

Ayon sa half

0 : 2

1st half

1 : 0

2nd half

Stats ng match

72Possession (%)28

VerlJahn Regensburg

15Shots9

VerlJahn Regensburg

3Shots on target4

VerlJahn Regensburg

1.54xG1.26

VerlJahn Regensburg

4Corners6

VerlJahn Regensburg

54Dangerous attacks57

VerlJahn Regensburg

8Fouls14

VerlJahn Regensburg

3Cards2

VerlJahn Regensburg

Pre-match na profile— ano ang sinasabi ng season numbers?

Team profile ito batay sa season data at form. Lalabas lang ang match-flow statistics kapag tapos na ang fixture.

1.73Points bawat match1.23

VerlJahn Regensburg

2.31Goals na na-score / match1.31

VerlJahn Regensburg

1.46Goals na na-concede / match1.5

VerlJahn Regensburg

1.81xG for1.58

VerlJahn Regensburg

65%Average na possession46%

VerlJahn Regensburg

5.77Shots on target bawat match4.77

VerlJahn Regensburg

19%Clean sheets27%

VerlJahn Regensburg

77%Parehong teams naka-score42%

VerlJahn Regensburg

Stats ng teams— alin ang mas efficient na team?

Comparison ng attack at defence ng dalawang teams sa current season.

15.15Shots bawat match13.08

VerlJahn Regensburg

5.77Shots on target4.77

VerlJahn Regensburg

15.2%Shot conversion10%

VerlJahn Regensburg

65%Possession46%

VerlJahn Regensburg

1.81xG for1.58

VerlJahn Regensburg

1.26xG against1.58

VerlJahn Regensburg

Quality ng shooting

Verl: DominantJahn Regensburg: Balanced ang style

	Verl	Jahn Regensburg
Accuracy ng shots on target	38%	36%
Quality ng chances (xG bawat shot)	0.12	0.12
Finishing (goals bawat shot on target)	0.40	0.27

Kapag nasa 0.08 ang xG per shot, kadalasan long-range attempts iyon; ang 0.15+ ay karaniwang chances sa box. Galing sa possession, shot volume at conversion ang style label.

* Ipinapakita ng xG (expected goals) kung ilang goals ang inaasahang makuha ng team mula sa chances nito. Kapag mas mataas ang actual goals kaysa xG, above average ang finishing; kapag mas mababa, may missed chances.

Form ng teams— alin ang mas maganda ang current form?

Last five matches at season record, overall at may home-away split.

Jahn Regensburg ang 14% better sa: form sa last 5 matches.

1.4 pts / match - Verl · 1.6 pts / match - Jahn Regensburg

Verl

WLWLD

Result split ngayong season

46% W35% D19% L

Season record (W-D-L)

12-9-5

1.73 pts / match · goal difference +22

Last 5 (W-D-L)

2-1-2

1.40 pts / match

Record ng team sa home (W-D-L)

7-4-1

Last 5 sa home

4-1-0

WDWWW

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 2.0Goals na na-concede: 1.6xG: 1.87Opponent xG: 1.19BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 80%

Jahn Regensburg

WDLWD

Result split ngayong season

35% W19% D46% L

Season record (W-D-L)

9-5-12

1.23 pts / match · goal difference -5

Last 5 (W-D-L)

2-2-1

1.60 pts / match

Record ng team sa away (W-D-L)

3-2-8

Last 5 sa away

1-1-3

LDLWL

Averages sa last 5 matches

Goals na na-score: 1.2Goals na na-concede: 1.0xG: 1.88Opponent xG: 1.26BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 40%

Goals— paano nag-i-score at nagko-concede ang dalawang teams?

Ilang goals ang sini-score at kino-concede ng dalawang teams, pati kung gaano kadalas silang mag-clean sheet o hindi maka-score.

Verl ang 76% better sa: goals scored per match.

2.31 goals / match - Verl · 1.31 goals / match - Jahn Regensburg

Scoring profile ng Verl: napakalakas

Nakaka-score ang Verl sa 88% ng matches (23 sa 26 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Jahn Regensburg sa 27% (7 sa 26 matches).

Scoring profile ng Jahn Regensburg: napakalakas

Nakaka-score ang Jahn Regensburg sa 65% ng matches (17 sa 26 matches), habang may clean sheet ang Verl sa 19% (5 sa 26 matches).

60Goals na na-score (season)34

VerlJahn Regensburg

38Goals na na-concede (season)39

VerlJahn Regensburg

3.77Average ng goals sa match2.81

VerlJahn Regensburg

10Goals na na-score (last 5)6

VerlJahn Regensburg

8Goals na na-concede (last 5)5

VerlJahn Regensburg

Verl

19%

Clean sheets5 sa 26 matches

12%

No goal3 sa 26 matches

Jahn Regensburg

27%

Clean sheets7 sa 26 matches

35%

No goal9 sa 26 matches

Gaano kadalas silang maka-score ng hindi bababa sa...

88%1 goal65%

VerlJahn Regensburg

73%2 goals42%

VerlJahn Regensburg

31%3 goals19%

VerlJahn Regensburg

27%4 goals4%

VerlJahn Regensburg

Gaano kadalas silang mag-concede ng hindi bababa sa...

81%1 goal73%

VerlJahn Regensburg

50%2 goals46%

VerlJahn Regensburg

12%3 goals23%

VerlJahn Regensburg

4%4 goals8%

VerlJahn Regensburg

* Kasama sa statistics ang home at away matches ng dalawang teams sa current season.

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)— gaano kadalas nakaka-score ang parehong teams?

Gaano kadalas may goals ang magkabilang panig sa matches ng teams, kumpara sa league average.

77%

Verl - BTTS20 sa 26 matches

42%

Jahn Regensburg - BTTS11 sa 26 matches

64%

Average ng liga

Mga pattern ng goal

35%BTTS sa half-time15%

VerlJahn Regensburg

19%BTTS sa parehong halves8%

VerlJahn Regensburg

58%Naka-score sa parehong halves31%

VerlJahn Regensburg

BTTS at goal count

69%Min. 3 goals at BTTS31%

VerlJahn Regensburg

8%Min. 3 goals na walang BTTS23%

VerlJahn Regensburg

60%BTTS - last 560%

VerlJahn Regensburg

Mga goal line (Over/Under)— gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal lines ang kanilang matches?

Gaano kadalas lumalagpas sa goal thresholds ang matches ng teams, sa full match at bawat half.

Buong match - comparison ng teams (Over)

92%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)96%

VerlJahn Regensburg

92%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)85%

VerlJahn Regensburg

77%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)54%

VerlJahn Regensburg

62%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)27%

VerlJahn Regensburg

31%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)12%

VerlJahn Regensburg

Over / Under - Verl

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 92%Under 8%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 92%Under 8%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 77%Under 23%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 62%Under 38%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 31%Under 69%

Over / Under - Jahn Regensburg

Linya 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 96%Under 4%

Linya 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 85%Under 15%

Linya 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 54%Under 46%

Linya 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 27%Under 73%

Linya 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 12%Under 88%

1st half

77%Min. 1 goal bago ang half-time85%

VerlJahn Regensburg

50%Min. 2 goals bago ang half-time31%

VerlJahn Regensburg

23%Min. 3 goals bago ang half-time0%

VerlJahn Regensburg

2nd half

88%Min. 1 goal pagkatapos ng half-time85%

VerlJahn Regensburg

69%Min. 2 goals pagkatapos ng half-time54%

VerlJahn Regensburg

46%Min. 3 goals pagkatapos ng half-time19%

VerlJahn Regensburg

Mga half ng match— saang half mas madalas silang maka-score?

Paano nahahati sa first at second half ang performance: goals, points, clean sheets at state sa half-time.

Verl ang 47% better sa: form sa first half (half-time points).

1.65 pts / match - Verl · 1.12 pts / match - Jahn Regensburg

Verl - state sa half-time

42% nangunguna38% tabla19% nahuhuli

Jahn Regensburg - state sa half-time

27% nangunguna31% tabla42% nahuhuli

Bago ang half-time (1st half)

1.65Points bawat match (1st half)1.12

VerlJahn Regensburg

0.96Goals na na-score (1st half)0.42

VerlJahn Regensburg

0.58Goals na na-concede (1st half)0.73

VerlJahn Regensburg

1.54Average ng goals (1st half)1.15

VerlJahn Regensburg

58%Clean sheet bago ang half-time42%

VerlJahn Regensburg

31%Walang goal bago ang half-time58%

VerlJahn Regensburg

Pagkatapos ng half-time (2nd half)

1.69Points bawat match (2nd half)1.35

VerlJahn Regensburg

1.35Goals na na-score (2nd half)0.88

VerlJahn Regensburg

0.88Goals na na-concede (2nd half)0.77

VerlJahn Regensburg

2.23Average ng goals (2nd half)1.65

VerlJahn Regensburg

35%Clean sheet pagkatapos ng half-time54%

VerlJahn Regensburg

23%Walang goal pagkatapos ng half-time46%

VerlJahn Regensburg

Verl - mga result sa second half

46% W31% D23% L

Half-time points

Half-time goals

+10

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

+12

Goal difference sa 2nd half

1.65

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding110%

Leading sa half-time sa 42% ng matches at nananalo sa 46%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.3

Nagko-concede ng 0.3 more goals per match pagkatapos ng half-time - bumababa ang defensive level sa second half.

Jahn Regensburg - mga result sa second half

38% W19% D42% L

Half-time points

Half-time goals

-8

Goal difference sa 1st half

Second-half points

Goal difference sa 2nd half

1.12

PPG bago ang half-time

Lead holding130%

Leading sa half-time sa 27% ng matches at nananalo sa 35%. Nanalo rin sa ilang matches kahit walang half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.0

Stable ang defence sa buong match.

Verl - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	1.00	1.60
Goals na na-score / match	0.8	1.2
Goals na na-concede / match	1.2	0.4
Average ng goals sa match	2.0	1.6
1 goal	60%	80%
2 goals	60%	40%
3 goals	60%	20%
Clean sheet	40%	60%
No goal	40%	40%
Goal difference	-2	+4

Half-time: 20% nangunguna - 40% tabla - 40% nahuhuli

2nd half: 40% panalo - 40% tabla - 20% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 60% - Total goals sa half-time: 4

Jahn Regensburg - last 5 matches per half
	1st half	2nd half
Points bawat match	1.80	0.80
Goals na na-score / match	0.8	0.4
Goals na na-concede / match	0.4	0.6
Average ng goals sa match	1.2	1.0
1 goal	80%	40%
2 goals	40%	40%
3 goals	0%	20%
Clean sheet	60%	60%
No goal	20%	60%
Goal difference	+2	-1

Half-time: 40% nangunguna - 60% tabla - 0% nahuhuli

2nd half: 0% panalo - 80% tabla - 20% talo

BTTS sa half-time (last 5): 40% - Total goals sa half-time: 4

* Ipinapakita ng colors sa tables ang event frequency: green ay common, yellow ay moderate, red ay rare. Frequency ito, hindi team rating.

Goals ayon sa minuto— kailan dumarating ang goals?

Mga phase ng match kung kailan pinakamadalas maka-score at mag-concede ang dalawang teams.

Verl

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 76-90 (15 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 76-90 (11). Balance ng late goals (76-90): +4 - malakas sa late phases.

Jahn Regensburg

Na-scoreNa-concede

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Pinaka-dangerous sa minutes 61-75 (10 goals). Pinakamaraming conceded sa 31-45 (10). Balance ng late goals (76-90): +1 - malakas sa late phases.

* Kasama sa buckets na 31-45 at 76-90 ang added-time goals.

Karagdagang team indicators— ano ang ipinapakita ng xG, efficiency at form?

Comparison ng chance quality, results at trends mula sa completed matches ngayong season.

Profile ng match

3.29

Estimated na goals

attack laban sa opponent defence

1.9 : 1.4

Estimated na hati ng goals

home : away

105%

Pace kumpara sa liga

100% = average ng liga

60%

Parehong teams naka-score (BTTS)

average mula sa seasons ng dalawang teams

-39%

Derby effect

H2H goals kumpara sa typical matches

57%

BTTS estimate

mula sa scoring frequency ng dalawang teams

0:0 risk

mga 1 sa bawat 25 matches

2-3

Pinakakaraniwang goal range

attack vs defence sa magkabilang panig

Verl

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

+0.55

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

+0.30

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

-10.7 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

+0.50

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

-0.20

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

137%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

101%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

-0.33

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

+0.4

Mga late goal

25% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 18% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

25%

Jahn Regensburg

Net xG balance

Difference ng chance quality na nagawa at pinayagan per match.

0.00

Results kumpara sa xG

Difference ng actual goal balance at balance na ipinapakita ng xG.

-0.19

Points kumpara sa goal balance

Comparison ng collected points at points na ipinapahiwatig ng goal balance ng team.

-1.7 pts

Efficiency ng finishing

Naiko-convert ba ng team ang chances? Positive ang value kapag mas marami ang goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng chance quality.

-0.27

Efficiency ng defence

Nasasagip ba ng defence o goalkeeper ang team? Positive ang value kapag mas kaunti ang conceded goals kaysa ipinapahiwatig ng allowed chances.

+0.08

Attack vs league

Gaano karami ang goals ng team kumpara sa league average para sa role nito. Ang 120% ay 20% above average.

90%

Defence vs league

Gaano karami ang conceded goals ng team kumpara sa league average. Ang 80% ay 20% fewer conceded goals.

89%

Trend ng form

Comparison ng points sa last 5 matches at whole-season average.

+0.37

Mas malakas sa second half?

Ilang more goals ang sini-score ng team pagkatapos ng half-time kumpara bago ang break.

+0.5

Mga late goal

24% ng goals ng team ay dumarating sa minutes 76-90. Para sa comparison, 12% ang dumarating sa first 15 minutes.

24%

* Ang estimated goals, goal split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk at goal range ay galing sa public season averages at frequencies ng dalawang teams. Statistical match profile ito, hindi private model prediction o betting pick. Ang iba pang indicators ay naglalarawan ng completed matches sa season.

Context ng liga— mataas ba ang scoring sa league na ito?

Paano nagko-compare ang dalawang teams sa league-wide averages ng 3. Liga.

Teams kumpara sa liga

	Verl	Liga	Jahn Regensburg
Average ng goals sa match	▲ 3.77	3.13	▼ 2.81
Parehong teams naka-score	▲ 77%	64%	▼ 42%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)	▲ 77%	63%	▼ 54%
Clean sheets	▼ 19%	21%	▲ 27%
Goal bago ang half-time	• 77%	76%	▲ 85%
Goal pagkatapos ng half-time	▲ 88%	84%	• 85%

^ green = mas mataas sa league average, ˇ red = mas mababa sa league average. Direction ng gap ang ipinapakita nito, hindi team rating.

3.13

Average goals bawat match

64%

Parehong teams naka-score

63%

Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)

21%

Clean sheets

1.69

Home goals bawat match

1.45

Away goals bawat match

+17%

Advantage ng home attack

+14%

Advantage ng home defence

+15%

Kabuuang home advantage

Goals sa 1st half (buong liga)

76%

1 goal

41%

2 goals

14%

3 goals

4 goals

Goals sa 2nd half (buong liga)

84%

1 goal

55%

2 goals

27%

3 goals

11%

4 goals

Lineups at player events

Verified starters, substitutes at recorded events para sa match.

Home team

Starting lineup

1Philipp Schulze 5Martin Ens🟨 1 6Joshua Chima Ezelumabas 46'7Julian Starklumabas 46'10Berkan Tazlumabas 87'14Paul Lehmann 19Niko Kijewski🟨 1 20Oualid Mhamdi 23Alessio Besiolumabas 71'28Yari Ottolumabas 46'30Timo Gayret

Substitutes

9Jonas Arweiler⚽ 1 · pumasok 71'11Marco WörnerA 1 · pumasok 46'17Almin Mesanovicpumasok 1'18Fabian Wessigpumasok 1'21Tobias-Mbunjiro Knostpumasok 1'24Michel Stöcker🟨 1 · pumasok 46'26António Fótipumasok 46'

32Fabian Pekruhlpumasok 1'

34Fynn Ottopumasok 87'

Away team

Starting lineup

1Felix Gebhardt 5Philipp Müller 11Noel Eichinger⚽ 2 · lumabas 65'21Eric Hottmannlumabas 82'25Nicolas Oliveira Kisilowskilumabas 90'26Benedikt BauerA 1 · 🟨 1 29Adrian Feinlumabas 82'30Christian Kühlwetterlumabas 65'33Nick Seidel 37Leopold Wurm 44Malte Karbstein🟨 1

Substitutes

7Oscar Schönfelderpumasok 65'8Andreas Geiplpumasok 1'12Leon-Oumar Wechselpumasok 1'13Florian Dietzpumasok 90'20John Posseltpumasok 82'22Sebastian Stolzepumasok 65'31Leo Mätzlerpumasok 82'35Sascha Hingerlpumasok 1'

36Ben Kiefferpumasok 1'

Timeline ng match

Mga goal, card at substitution ayon sa pagkakasunod ng oras.

15'
Jahn RegensburgYellow cardMalte Karbstein
19'
Jahn RegensburgGoalNoel Eichinger
35'
Jahn RegensburgGoalNoel EichingerAssist: Benedikt Bauer
37'
Jahn RegensburgYellow cardBenedikt Bauer
49'
VerlYellow cardMichel Stöcker
71'
VerlSubstitutionPumasok: Jonas ArweilerLumabas: Alessio Besio
84'
VerlGoalJonas ArweilerAssist: Marco Wörner
87'
VerlSubstitutionPumasok: Fynn OttoLumabas: Berkan Taz
90'
Jahn RegensburgSubstitutionPumasok: Florian DietzLumabas: Nicolas Oliveira Kisilowski
90+3'
VerlYellow cardMartin Ens
90+5'
VerlYellow cardNiko Kijewski

Referee at coaches

Buksan ang season profiles para makita ang match record, goals at discipline trends.

RefereeLuca Jürgensen

Konteksto ng referee

Season averages at hatian ng resulta sa mga match na hinawakan ng referee na ito.

Luca JürgensenMatches officiated: 12

4.58Cards kada match

0Penalties kada match

1 / X / 257%Home wins8%Draws33%Away wins

Head-to-head

Nakaraang meeting: Verl 0 - 0 - 1 Jahn Regensburg. Average ng goals 2.00, both teams scored sa 0% matches.

SSV Jahn 2000 Regensburg

2 : 009/28/2025

SC Verl 1924

Mga madalas itanong

Ano ang result ng Verl vs Jahn Regensburg?

Natapos ang 3. Liga match sa score na Verl 1:2 Jahn Regensburg. Nasa page na ito ang match statistics, half-by-half data at head-to-head record.

Ano ang ipinapakita ng goal statistics bago ang Verl vs Jahn Regensburg?

Verl scores 2.31 goals per match at Jahn Regensburg 1.31. Ang 3. Liga average ay 3.13 goals, may Over 2.5 sa 63% ng matches. BTTS: Verl 77%, Jahn Regensburg 42%.

Ano ang current form ng Verl at Jahn Regensburg?

Sa last 5 matches, ang Verl ay 2-1-2 (1.40 points per match), habang ang Jahn Regensburg ay 2-2-1 (1.60 points per match).

Saan makikita ang betting pick at full analysis ng Verl vs Jahn Regensburg?

Nasa page na ito ang statistical context: form, H2H, goals, BTTS at Over/Under. Makikita sa NoFluffPicks app ang betting pick, value bet at full reasoning.