AaB vs Hillerød: match statistics

Analysis of the last five matches shows a balanced picture: AaB scored 4 and conceded 10 (goal difference -6), while Hillerød scored 5 and conceded 10 (goal difference -5). Hillerød holds the edge in results — 2 wins in the last 5 matches versus 1 for AaB — and averages 1.4 points per game compared to the home side’s 1.0, as well as a higher goals-per-game average (1.0 vs 0.8). At the same time both teams concede an average of 2.0 goals per game over this period, indicating significant defensive issues and increasing the likelihood of a goal-heavy contest. AaB’s season home statistics in the provided data are empty/zero, so home advantage is difficult to quantify and weakens the case for the hosts; therefore a draw appears the most probable outcome.

Both teams have a 60% BTTS in their last 5 matches (AaB 60% and Hillerød 60%), providing a strong basis for predicting BTTS - Yes. In the last 5 fixtures AaB scored 4 goals (0.8 per match) and conceded 10 (2.0 per match), while Hillerød scored 5 goals (1.0 per match) and also conceded 10 (2.0 per match), indicating weak defenses on both sides. xG data confirms defensive risk: AaB generates 1.47 xG per match versus 1.60 xG allowed by Hillerød, and Hillerød has 1.15 xG versus 1.29 xG allowed by AaB, so both teams create chances against an opponent that frequently concedes them. Given both teams’ 60% BTTS and an average of 2.0 goals conceded by each, the Both Teams To Score scenario looks stronger; I estimate 70% for Yes and 30% for No.

Analysis of the last 5 matches yields expected goals of 1.54 for AaB and 1.22 for Hillerød (xG: 1.47 vs 1.15; xG against: 1.29 vs 1.60), totaling 2.76 goals. Both teams conceded 10 goals in the last 5 fixtures (2.0 goals conceded per game each); AaB scored 4 goals (0.8 avg) and Hillerød 5 goals (1.0 avg), indicating weaker defenses. Hillerød has 80% of matches over 2.5 goals in the last 5, AaB 40%, and both teams have 60% of matches with BTTS, which increases the likelihood of goals. Based on this I assess the probability of Over 1.5 at around 85%, Over 2.5 at 62% and Over 3.5 at 25%, therefore the strongest signal is the Over line at 1.5.

In the last 5 matches AaB led at the break in 40% of games (2 of 5), while Hillerød led in only 20% (1 of 5), which increases the hosts’ chance to have the lead after 45 minutes. At the same time Hillerød won 40% of those matches (2 of 5) versus 20% wins for AaB, and their average goals scored after the break is 0.6 compared to 0.2 for AaB, suggesting greater effectiveness from the visitors in the second half. The visitors also average 1.0 points in second halves over the last 5 matches versus 0.4 points for the hosts, and the average goals in the second halves of their games are 2.0 versus 1.6 for AaB, which increases the likelihood of a turnaround. For these reasons I assess the scenario of AaB leading at Half-Time and Hillerød winning Full-Time (1/2) as the most probable.