AC Milan vs Inter Milan: match statistics
Inter Milan, as the league leaders, demonstrate a clear statistical advantage over AC Milan, especially in away matches, where they achieve an impressive 85% win rate and 69% clean sheets. The visitors have a better goal difference this season (64:21 vs 43:20), a higher average of goals scored away (2.0), and a better shot conversion rate (11% vs 8%). AC Milan wins only 54% of their home games and has weaker form in the last five matches (2.0 PPG vs 1.4 PPG for Inter, although Inter has had a worse recent period). A key factor is Inter's dominance away from home with an unbeaten run of 13 matches and a higher average possession (61% vs 55%), which could prove decisive in the Milan derby. Despite the home advantage for the hosts, the statistics clearly favor Inter Milan to secure all three points.
AC Milan vs Inter Milan: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
AC Milan played against Inter Milan in Serie A (Italy). The game was played on March 8, 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
AC Milan has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.00 points per game. Inter Milan has 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses, with 3.00 points per game.
Scoring records
AC Milan scores 1.59 goals per game and allows 0.74. Inter Milan scores 2.37 and allows 0.78. Games in this league average 2.44 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 52% of AC Milan's games and 41% of Inter Milan's. The Over 2.5 rates are 44% and 56%, compared with league averages of 47% for BTTS and 47% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Inter Milan has the higher season xG average, 2.07 to 1.55 per game. AC Milan takes 13.7 shots per game, while Inter Milan takes 18.6.
First-half and second-half trends
AC Milan leads at halftime in 30% of its games and scores 1.00 goals per game after halftime. Inter Milan leads at halftime in 56% and scores 1.37 after halftime.
When the teams score
AC Milan's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (11 goals). For Inter Milan, it is minutes 76-90+ (17 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Serie A games average 2.44 goals. Both teams score in 47% of games, and 47% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Inter Milan, as the league leaders, demonstrate a clear statistical advantage over AC Milan, especially in away matches, where they achieve an impressive 85% win rate and 69% clean sheets. The visitors have a better goal difference this season (64:21 vs 43:20), a higher average of goals scored away (2.0), and a better shot conversion rate (11% vs 8%). AC Milan wins only 54% of their home games and has weaker form in the last five matches (2.0 PPG vs 1.4 PPG for Inter, although Inter has had a worse recent period). A key factor is Inter's dominance away from home with an unbeaten run of 13 matches and a higher average possession (61% vs 55%), which could prove decisive in the Milan derby. Despite the home advantage for the hosts, the statistics clearly favor Inter Milan to secure all three points.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| AC Milan | Inter Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Inter Milan is 50% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / game - AC Milan · 3 pts / game - Inter Milan
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Inter Milan is 49% better for: goals scored per game.
1.59 goals / game - AC Milan · 2.37 goals / game - Inter Milan
AC Milan is 5% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.74 goals / game - AC Milan · 0.78 goals / game - Inter Milan
AC Milan scores in 93% of games (25 of 27 meczów), while Inter Milan keeps a clean sheet in 56% (15 of 27 meczów).
Inter Milan scores in 96% of games (26 of 27 meczów), while AC Milan keeps a clean sheet in 44% (12 of 27 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - AC Milan
Over / Under - Inter Milan
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Inter Milan is 35% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.48 pts / game - AC Milan · 2 pts / game - Inter Milan
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
AC Milan - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 30% of games and wins 59%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Inter Milan - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 56% of games and wins 81%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +7 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (17 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +10 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
AC Milan
Inter Milan
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| AC Milan | Liga | Inter Milan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.33 | 2.44 | ▲ 3.15 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 52% | 47% | ▼ 41% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 44% | 47% | ▲ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 44% | 31% | ▲ 56% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 56% | 64% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 78% | ▲ 85% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from AC Milan's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against Inter Milan. Games average 1.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of AC Milan vs Inter Milan?
The Serie A match finished AC Milan 1:0 Inter Milan. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before AC Milan vs Inter Milan?
AC Milan score 1.59 goals per game on average and Inter Milan 2.37. The Serie A average is 2.44 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 52% of AC Milan's matches and 41% of Inter Milan's.
What form are AC Milan and Inter Milan in?
Over the last 5 games AC Milan have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Inter Milan 5-0-0 (3.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AC Milan vs Inter Milan?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for AC Milan vs Inter Milan: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.