Italy - Serie AData current as of September 12, 2026

AC Milan vs Torino: match statistics

AC Milan crest
AC Milan
3 : 2half-time 1:1
Torino crest
Torino
165%(1.26)
X22%(4.55)
213%(8.25)
BTTSOver/UnderHT/FT
Pick: 1Won
Pick score:Pick score — the strength of the NoFluffPicks model signal for this pick.76.17
Value:Value — how much the bookmaker price is above our estimated probability. Positive value is favorable long term.-18.10%

AC Milan demonstrates significantly higher form and potential than Torino. The hosts are in 2nd place in the table with 17 wins, while Torino sits in 14th position with just 9 wins this season. In home matches, Milan shows impressive efficiency - a 57% win rate, averaging 1.36 goals per game and failing to score in only 7% of their matches. Torino performs poorly away from home - only a 21% win rate, a 50% loss rate, and a negative goal difference of -14. They concede an average of 1.93 goals on the road, and in 43% of matches they fail to score. Furthermore, Milan's advantage in xG (1.77 vs 1.21) and possession (53% vs 42%) confirms their dominance. Considering all statistics, a home victory is the most likely scenario.

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AC Milan vs Torino: form, goals and key statistics

Game details

AC Milan played against Torino in Serie A (Italy). The game was played on March 21, 2026. Final score: 3:2.

Recent form

AC Milan has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. Torino has 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, with 1.20 points per game.

Scoring records

AC Milan scores 1.52 goals per game and allows 0.72. Torino scores 1.10 and allows 1.72. Games in this league average 2.44 goals.

BTTS and goal totals

Both teams score in 48% of AC Milan's games and 45% of Torino's. The Over 2.5 rates are 41% and 62%, compared with league averages of 47% for BTTS and 47% for Over 2.5.

xG and shots

AC Milan has the higher season xG average, 1.53 to 1.30 per game. AC Milan takes 13.7 shots per game, while Torino takes 11.7.

First-half and second-half trends

AC Milan leads at halftime in 31% of its games and scores 0.93 goals per game after halftime. Torino leads at halftime in 24% and scores 0.62 after halftime.

When the teams score

AC Milan's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (11 goals). For Torino, it is minutes 76-90+ (8 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.

League scoring profile

Serie A games average 2.44 goals. Both teams score in 47% of games, and 47% finish with at least three goals.

Head-to-head record

Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 5.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.

Archived pre-match analysis

This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.

General match analysis

AC Milan demonstrates significantly higher form and potential than Torino. The hosts are in 2nd place in the table with 17 wins, while Torino sits in 14th position with just 9 wins this season. In home matches, Milan shows impressive efficiency - a 57% win rate, averaging 1.36 goals per game and failing to score in only 7% of their matches. Torino performs poorly away from home - only a 21% win rate, a 50% loss rate, and a negative goal difference of -14. They concede an average of 1.93 goals on the road, and in 43% of matches they fail to score. Furthermore, Milan's advantage in xG (1.77 vs 1.21) and possession (53% vs 42%) confirms their dominance. Considering all statistics, a home victory is the most likely scenario.

View the statistical overview

Stats by half

1 : 1
First half
2 : 1
Second half

Game stats

63Possession (%)37
AC MilanTorino
15Shots19
AC MilanTorino
6Shots on target7
AC MilanTorino
1.68xG1.97
AC MilanTorino
4Corners6
AC MilanTorino
43Dangerous attacks40
AC MilanTorino
9Fouls10
AC MilanTorino
3Cards2
AC MilanTorino

Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?

This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.

2.07Points per gamePPG - points per game.1.14
AC MilanTorino
1.52Goals scored / game1.1
AC MilanTorino
0.72Goals allowed / game1.72
AC MilanTorino
1.53xG forxG - expected goals, the quality of scoring chances.1.3
AC MilanTorino
52%Average possession44%
AC MilanTorino
4.59Shots on target / game4.28
AC MilanTorino
45%Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.34%
AC MilanTorino
48%Both teams scoredBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.45%
AC MilanTorino

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.

13.66Shots per game11.69
AC MilanTorino
4.59Shots on target4.28
AC MilanTorino
11.1%Shot conversion9.4%
AC MilanTorino
52%Possession44%
AC MilanTorino
1.53xG for1.3
AC MilanTorino
1.25xG against1.51
AC MilanTorino

Shooting quality

AC Milan: BalancedTorino: Balanced
AC MilanTorino
Accuracy (shots on target)34%37%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.110.11
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.330.26

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.

AC Milan is 17% better for: last-5 form.

1.4 pts / game - AC Milan · 1.2 pts / game - Torino

AC Milan
DLWWL
Season result split
59% W31% D10% L
Season (W-D-L)
17-9-3
2.07 pts / game · goal difference +23
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-1-2
1.40 pts / game
Record at home (W-D-L)
8-4-2
Last 5 at home
2-2-1
DWDLW
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 0.8Goals conceded: 0.6xG: 1.71Opponent xG: 1.16BTTS: 20%Over 2.5: 0%
Torino
LLWLW
Season result split
31% W21% D48% L
Season (W-D-L)
9-6-14
1.14 pts / game · goal difference -18
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-0-3
1.20 pts / game
Record away (W-D-L)
3-4-7
Last 5 away
0-1-4
LLDLL
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 1.6Goals conceded: 1.6xG: 1.11Opponent xG: 1.49BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 80%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

AC Milan is 38% better for: goals scored per game.

1.52 goals / game - AC Milan · 1.1 goals / game - Torino

AC Milan is 139% better for: goals allowed per game.

0.72 goals / game - AC Milan · 1.72 goals / game - Torino

AC Milan scoring profile: very strong

AC Milan scores in 90% of games (26 of 29 meczów), while Torino keeps a clean sheet in 34% (10 of 29 meczów).

Torino scoring profile: mixed

Torino scores in 69% of games (20 of 29 meczów), while AC Milan keeps a clean sheet in 45% (13 of 29 meczów).

44Goals scored (season)32
AC MilanTorino
21Goals conceded (season)50
AC MilanTorino
2.24Average goals per game2.83
AC MilanTorino
4Goals scored (last 5)8
AC MilanTorino
3Goals conceded (last 5)8
AC MilanTorino
AC Milan
45%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.13 of 29 meczów
10%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.3 of 29 meczów
Torino
34%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.10 of 29 meczów
31%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.9 of 29 meczów

How often they score at least...

90%1 goal69%
AC MilanTorino
45%2 goals28%
AC MilanTorino
17%3 goals10%
AC MilanTorino
0%4 goals3%
AC MilanTorino

How often they concede at least...

55%1 goal66%
AC MilanTorino
17%2 goals59%
AC MilanTorino
0%3 goals24%
AC MilanTorino
0%4 goals10%
AC MilanTorino

* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.

48%
AC Milan - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.14 of 29 meczów
45%
Torino - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.13 of 29 meczów
47%
League average

Goal patterns

21%BTTS at half-time21%
AC MilanTorino
3%BTTS in both halves3%
AC MilanTorino
28%Scored in both halves17%
AC MilanTorino

BTTS and goal count

31%Min. 3 goals and BTTS45%
AC MilanTorino
10%Min. 3 goals without BTTS17%
AC MilanTorino
20%BTTS - last 560%
AC MilanTorino

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?

See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.

Full game - team comparison (Over)

97%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.90%
AC MilanTorino
66%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.72%
AC MilanTorino
41%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.62%
AC MilanTorino
17%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.28%
AC MilanTorino
3%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.21%
AC MilanTorino

Over / Under - AC Milan

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 97%Under 3%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 66%Under 34%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 41%Under 59%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 17%Under 83%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 3%Under 97%

Over / Under - Torino

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 90%Under 10%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 72%Under 28%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 62%Under 38%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 28%Under 72%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 21%Under 79%

1st half

59%Min. 1 goal before half-time76%
AC MilanTorino
28%Min. 2 goals before half-time38%
AC MilanTorino
7%Min. 3 goals before half-time14%
AC MilanTorino

2nd half

83%Min. 1 goal after half-time72%
AC MilanTorino
41%Min. 2 goals after half-time45%
AC MilanTorino
7%Min. 3 goals after half-time28%
AC MilanTorino

Game halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

AC Milan is 35% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

1.48 pts / game - AC Milan · 1.1 pts / game - Torino

AC Milan - half-time state
31% leading55% draw14% trailing
Torino - half-time state
24% leading38% draw38% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.48Points per game (1st half)1.1
AC MilanTorino
0.59Goals scored (1st half)0.48
AC MilanTorino
0.34Goals conceded (1st half)0.83
AC MilanTorino
0.93Average goals (1st half)1.31
AC MilanTorino
69%Clean sheet before half-time45%
AC MilanTorino
52%No goal before half-time59%
AC MilanTorino

After half-time (2nd half)

1.86Points per game (2nd half)1.17
AC MilanTorino
0.93Goals scored (2nd half)0.62
AC MilanTorino
0.38Goals conceded (2nd half)0.9
AC MilanTorino
1.31Average goals (2nd half)1.52
AC MilanTorino
66%Clean sheet after half-time52%
AC MilanTorino
31%No goal after half-time55%
AC MilanTorino

AC Milan - second-half results

52% W31% D17% L
43
Half-time points
17
Half-time goals
+7
Goal difference (1st half)
54
Second-half points
+16
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.48
PPG before half-time
Lead holding190%

Leads at halftime in 31% of games and wins 59%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime+0.0

Defense stays consistent across the full game.

Torino - second-half results

28% W34% D38% L
32
Half-time points
14
Half-time goals
-10
Goal difference (1st half)
34
Second-half points
-8
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.10
PPG before half-time
Lead holding129%

Leads at halftime in 24% of games and wins 31%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime+0.1

Defense stays consistent across the full game.

AC Milan - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game1.001.60
Goals scored / game0.20.6
Goals allowed / game0.40.2
Average goals per game0.60.8
1 goal60%60%
2 goals0%20%
3 goals0%0%
Clean sheet60%80%
No goal80%60%
Goal difference-1+2
Half-time: 20% leading - 40% draw - 40% trailing
2nd half: 40% won - 40% draw - 20% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 0% - Half-time goals total: 1
Torino - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game1.001.40
Goals scored / game0.41.2
Goals allowed / game0.80.8
Average goals per game1.22.0
1 goal80%100%
2 goals40%60%
3 goals0%40%
Clean sheet40%40%
No goal60%20%
Goal difference-2+2
Half-time: 20% leading - 40% draw - 40% trailing
2nd half: 40% won - 20% draw - 40% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 2

* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.

AC Milan
ScoredConceded
4
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
10
3
31-45
10
3
46-60
6
5
61-75
11
3
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.

Torino
ScoredConceded
3
5
0-15
7
11
16-30
4
8
31-45
6
7
46-60
4
11
61-75
8
8
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.

Game profile

2.53
Estimated goals
attack vs. opponent defense
1.6 : 0.9
Estimated goal split
home : away
104%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
47%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
+97%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
62%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
3%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 33 matches
0-1
Most common goal range
attack vs. defense for both teams

AC Milan

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.28
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.52
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-10.9 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.01
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
+0.53
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
118%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
63%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
-0.67
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.3
Late goals
25% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 9% come in the first quarter-hour.
25%

Torino

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.21
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.41
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
+7.7 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.20
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
-0.21
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
96%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
133%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
+0.06
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.1
Late goals
25% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 9% come in the first quarter-hour.
25%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).

Teams vs league

AC MilanLigaTorino
Average goals per game▼ 2.242.44▲ 2.83
Both teams scored• 48%47%▼ 45%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▼ 41%47%▲ 62%
Clean sheets▲ 45%31%▲ 34%
Goal before half-time▼ 59%65%▲ 76%
Goal after half-time▲ 83%77%▼ 72%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

2.44
Average goals per game
47%
Both teams scored
47%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
31%
Clean sheets
1.29
Home goals / game
1.15
Away goals / game
+12%
Home attack advantage
+11%
Home defensive advantage
+5%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
65%
1 goal
28%
2 goals
8%
3 goals
2%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
77%
1 goal
44%
2 goals
16%
3 goals
3%
4 goals

Lineups and player events

Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.

Home team

Away team

Match timeline

Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.

  1. TorinoYellow cardGuillermo Alfonso Maripán Loaysa
  2. AC MilanYellow cardFikayo Tomori
  3. AC MilanGoalStrahinja Pavlović
  4. TorinoGoalGiovanni Pablo Simeone
  5. AC MilanSubstitutionOn: Zachary AthekameOff: Fikayo Tomori
  6. AC MilanGoalAdrien RabiotAssist: Christian Mate Pulisic
  7. AC MilanGoalYoussouf FofanaAssist: Zachary Athekame
  8. TorinoSubstitutionOn: Cesare CasadeiOff: Gvidas Gineitis
  9. AC MilanSubstitutionOn: Santiago Tomás GiménezOff: Christian Mate Pulisic
  10. AC MilanYellow cardStrahinja Pavlović
  11. TorinoGoalNikola Vlašić
  12. AC MilanSubstitutionOn: David Uyoyo OdoguOff: Alexis Saelemaekers
  13. TorinoYellow cardEmirhan İlkhan
  14. AC MilanYellow cardSantiago Tomás Giménez

Referee and managers

Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.

RefereeFrancesco Fourneau

Referee context

See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.

Francesco FourneauMatches officiated: 11
4.09Cards per match
0Penalties per match
1 / X / 255%Home wins18%Draws27%Away wins

Head-to-head

Record from AC Milan's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against Torino. Games average 5.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.

Torino FC
2 : 3
AC Milan

FAQ

What was the result of AC Milan vs Torino?

The Serie A match finished AC Milan 3:2 Torino. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.

What do the goal statistics show before AC Milan vs Torino?

AC Milan score 1.52 goals per game on average and Torino 1.10. The Serie A average is 2.44 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 48% of AC Milan's matches and 45% of Torino's.

What form are AC Milan and Torino in?

Over the last 5 games AC Milan have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Torino 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AC Milan vs Torino?

This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.