AC Milan vs Venezia: match statistics

AC Milan opened the season with a 2:1 victory, while Venezia lost their opening match 0:2 and remain without a goal scored. The hosts have scored 9 goals in their last five matches but have also conceded 9, suggesting an open game and giving the visitors a chance to find the net. Venezia have a slightly better record across their last five matches, with 3 wins and 11 goals, compared with Milan’s 2 victories and 9 goals. At the same time, Venezia currently sit 19th, while Milan are sixth, and the opening league fixture more clearly confirmed the hosts’ quality. Home advantage and the stronger start to the campaign point towards a Milan win, although their defensive numbers from the recent run reduce confidence in this prediction.

The strongest signal in favor of BTTS comes from current form: Milan have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches, while Venezia have scored in 2 of 5, with the hosts recording an 80% BTTS rate compared with 40% for the visitors. Both defenses have been vulnerable during this period, as Milan have conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match and Venezia 1.6. Venezia have created an average of 2.33 xG over their last five matches, clearly more than Milan’s 1.22 xG, which increases their chances of exploiting the hosts’ defensive weaknesses. Milan, meanwhile, average 19 shots at home, including 7 on target, and have an xG of 2.14, so they should regularly threaten the opposition goal. Although the league-wide BTTS average stands at 50%, the combination of both teams’ attacking quality and their recent defensive struggles points towards a Goal/Goal scenario, with both sides expected to score.

Milan’s last five matches produced an average of 3.6 goals, with the team scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 per game. Venezia has an equally open profile: during this period, they averaged 2.2 goals scored, while their matches produced an average of 3.8 goals. The 2.5 line was surpassed in 80% of Milan’s last five appearances and in 60% of Venezia’s matches, significantly limiting the risk of a very low-scoring outcome. Particularly notable are Venezia’s xG of 2.33 and Milan’s xG of 1.22 over their last five matches, alongside an average of 1.33 and 1.24 xG allowed by their opponents, respectively. Over 1.5 is the safest choice, as the projected 3.00 goals is clearly above this line and both teams regularly feature in games with numerous scoring chances.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Venezia win at full-time, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 3 of their last 5 matches, and neither side held a lead during that period. Venezia have the stronger recent finishing record: they won 60% of their last five matches and averaged 2.2 goals, compared with Milan’s 40% win rate and 1.8 goals per game. After the break, the visitors average 1.8 goals per match, while Milan concede an average of 1.0 goal in this period; both teams recorded at least two second-half goals in each of their last five appearances. Although Milan produced an xG of 2.14 in the available home sample and averaged 7 shots on target, they failed to score, with their only recorded home match ending in a 0–2 defeat.