AGF vs Viborg: match statistics

AGF has a clear statistical advantage at home: averaging 1.67 goals per game and xG 2.20 with 18.6 shots and 6.47 shots on target, while Viborg away averages 1.4 goals with xG 1.55, 13.73 shots and 4.8 shots on target. Defensively AGF also performs better: the hosts concede 0.8 goals at home on average (xG against 1.09), whereas Viborg concedes 1.4 goals away (xG against 1.59); additionally AGF has 47% clean sheets at home versus Viborg’s 40%. In the last five matches AGF’s record is 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (1.6 points per game), while Viborg’s last five are 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (0.8 points per game), indicating better form for the home side. Viborg shows slightly better shot conversion (10% vs 9% for AGF), but with lower xG and fewer attempts (4.8 on target from 13.73 shots vs 6.47 on target from 18.6 shots) this does not compensate AGF’s advantage in chance creation and possession (60% vs 47%). Based on this I assess the probability of an AGF win at 70%, draw 18% and Viborg win 12%.

Seasonal stats favor BTTS: AGF have 69% of matches with both teams scoring, Viborg 47%, and the league BTTS average is 59%. Both teams have similar xG — AGF 1.40 vs Viborg 1.55 — and comparable xG against (1.51 vs 1.59), suggesting both sides create and concede scoring opportunities. In the last 5 matches AGF scored 6 and conceded 4 goals (avg 1.2 and 0.8), while Viborg scored 5 and conceded 7 (avg 1.0 and 1.4), so in the short term both teams still find the net. However, note AGF fail to score in only 13% of matches and have just 19% of matches with a clean sheet, whereas Viborg have 20% of matches without scoring and 40% clean sheets, which weakens the BTTS signal from Viborg. Considering the strong 69% signal from the home side, the similar xG and the league average of 3.04 goals per game, I back BTTS - Yes at a 65% probability (No = 35%).

The model estimates total expected xG for this match at approximately 3.03: AGF ~1.50 xG (their xG for 1.40 and opponent xG against 1.59 yields 1.50), Viborg ~1.53 xG (1.55 and 1.51 yields 1.53). With λ=3.03 the Poisson distribution gives probability of Over 1.5 ≈ 81% (0–1 goals ≈ 19%), Over 2.5 ≈ 58% (0–2 goals ≈ 42%) and Over 3.5 ≈ 36% (0–3 goals ≈ 64%). This aligns with seasonal stats: AGF has 63% of matches Over 2.5, Viborg 53%, while Over 1.5 occurs in 69% and 73% of their matches; both teams also have Over 0.5 in 100% and 93% of games. Additionally AGF have scored 56 and conceded 30 goals this season versus Viborg 47–45, with average shots 11.94/4.31 (AGF) vs 13.73/4.80 (Viborg) and conversion rates 14% vs 10%, which increases the likelihood of goals and BTTS situations (69% AGF, 47% Viborg). Based on this I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (Over 1.5, chance ≈81%), since total xG 3.03 together with high seasonal shares of matches above 1.5 and frequent goals from both sides favor at least two goals.

AGF often leads at the break — the home side were leading in 7 matches (44%) and score an average of 1.19 goals by half-time versus 0.40 for Viborg. Viborg, however, are more dangerous after the break: the visitors average 1.00 goals in the second half versus 0.44 for the hosts and win second halves in 47% of cases compared to 13% for AGF. AGF have better recent form over the last 5 (lddww — 2 wins) than Viborg (llwdl — 1 win) and in their last 5 they led at half-time in 60% of matches, which favors a scenario of the home side leading after 45 minutes. However, Viborg keep 40% clean sheets and have a higher xG (1.55 versus 1.40), giving them a realistic chance of a turnaround in the second half. On that basis I tip 1/1 as the strongest signal (32%): the most confident outcome is AGF leading at half-time and ultimately winning, although there is a significant risk of a draw (X/X 17%) or a visitor comeback after the break (X/2 12% and 1/X 12%).