Águila vs Firpo: match statistics

I back the home win for Águila based on superior recent form: the hosts have 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five, while Firpo has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss. Offensively Águila scored 6 goals in the last 5 matches (1.2 per game) versus Firpo’s 5 goals (1.0 per game), giving the hosts a slight attacking edge. Defensively the picture is similar but Firpo conceded 5 goals in five matches (1.0 per game) while Águila conceded 6 (1.2 per game), which partially offsets the home advantage. Higher average points in the last 5 matches (1.8 for Águila vs 1.2 for Firpo) confirm Águila’s greater efficiency in collecting points. Considering form and the advantage in results/PPG I assign Águila a 50% chance to win, a 30% probability for a draw (Firpo has 3 draws in 5 matches), and a 20% chance for an away victory.

Season-long stats are largely unavailable (values 0), so the analysis is based on the last 5 matches. In those five fixtures the home team has BTTS at 40% (2 of 5), the away team 80% (4 of 5), giving a simple average 60% chance of Both Teams To Score. Goal averages show the home side scores 1.2 and concedes 1.2 per game (6 scored and 6 conceded in 5 matches), while the away side scores 1.0 and concedes 1.0 (5 scored and 5 conceded), so both teams regularly participate in matches with goal exchanges. xG confirms this direction: home xG_for 1.32 vs xG_against 1.34, away xG_for 1.47 vs xG_against 1.31, meaning both teams create around 1.3–1.5 xG while allowing ~1.3 xG. Considering the 60% BTTS average and supporting signals from xG and goal averages, I assess BTTS as more likely and propose 70% for "yes" (BTTS - Yes) versus 30% for "no" (No Goal).

Based on the last 5 matches both teams generate comparable xG: Águila 1.32 xG and Firpo 1.47 xG, with conceded xG of 1.34 and 1.31 respectively; the average yields a forecast of 1.32 goals for the home side and 1.40 for the away side (total 2.72). Águila scored 6 goals in the last 5 matches (1.2 per game) and conceded 6, Firpo scored 5 (1.0 per game) and conceded 5, confirming moderate offensive output from both teams. In the last 5 fixtures 60% of Águila’s matches were over 2.5 goals, while Firpo’s rate was 20%, and both-teams-to-score occurred in 40% for Águila and 80% for Firpo. A Poisson distribution model for an expected total of 2.72 yields approximately a 76% chance of Over 1.5, 51% for Over 2.5 and 29% for Over 3.5, indicating the most reliable threshold is at least 2 goals in the match. Therefore I recommend an Over 1.5 bet as the most data-supported option, since the projected 2.72 goals and historical goal rates and BTTS metrics favor a minimum of two goals.

Águila appears to be the favorite in recent form: 3 wins in 5 matches (60%), averaging 1.8 points per match and 1.2 goals scored per match compared to Firpo (1 win, 20% and 1.0 goal). At Half-Time the hosts have the advantage — Águila scored 9 first-half goals in their last five matches (1.8 on average), while Firpo only 4 (0.8); the hosts led at the break in 2 of 5 games (40%). After the break Firpo is more active (1.2 second-half goals on average versus Águila’s 0.6, and 4 of 5 games with goals after Half-Time), but Firpo also concedes 0.8 goals on average after the break compared to Águila’s 0.2. Considering Águila’s Half-Time advantage (1.8 vs 0.8 HT), their higher win rate (60% vs 20%) and the low average goals conceded after the break (0.2), the scenario of Águila leading at the break and ultimately winning (1/1) appears most likely.