Al Ahed vs Al Mabarrah: match statistics

Al Ahed are favorites: they have earned 7 points from their last five matches, while Al Mabarrah have lost all five. The hosts scored 11 goals during this period, averaging 2.2 per match, compared with just 2 goals for the visitors, an average of 0.4. The defensive gap is equally clear: Al Ahed have conceded 6 goals, while Al Mabarrah have let in as many as 17, an average of 3.4 goals conceded per match. The hosts’ fifth-place position, compared with the visitors’ sixth, also favors Al Ahed, although the lack of reliable home and away data limits confidence in the prediction.

In their last 5 matches, Al Mabarrah scored an average of just 0.4 goals, with 2 goals in total, while Al Ahed averaged 2.2 goals. During this period, the visitors recorded an average xG of 0.78, while the hosts limited opponents to chances worth just 0.74 xG on average, reducing Al Mabarrah’s chances of scoring. Although Al Ahed conceded an average of 1.2 goals and BTTS landed in 60% of their last 5 matches, the figure for the visitors was 40%. Al Mabarrah conceded as many as 17 goals in 5 matches, so the likelier scenario is that Al Ahed score while the visitors fail to find the net. This points to BTTS - No: at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw. Zero values in the season statistics provide no basis for further conclusions, so the prediction is based primarily on recent form.

In their last 5 matches, Al Ahed averaged 2.2 goals scored, while Al Mabarrah conceded as many as 3.4, pointing to significant scoring potential for the home side. Matches involving both teams went Over 2.5 goals in 80% of cases during this period, although the league average is only 2.25 goals per match. The hosts averaged 1.43 xG compared with the visitors’ 0.78 xG, so the projection of 2.50 goals for Al Ahed and 0.70 for Al Mabarrah also accounts for the possibility of a one-sided result. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals at 83% probability, as just two goals are needed for it to land; the less reliable Over 2.5 goals option is rated at 62%. Season data consists entirely of zeros, so the assessment is based primarily on the last 5 appearances, with caution due to the small sample size.

Al Ahed have averaged 2.2 goals per match recently, while Al Mabarrah have scored 0.4 and conceded as many as 3.4 goals. The home side led at the break in 40% of their last five matches, while the visitors were trailing at half-time in 100% of the available matches, conceding an average of 2.67 goals in the first half. After the break, Al Ahed averaged 1.0 goal, whereas Al Mabarrah conceded 1.67 and failed to score, supporting the prospect of the home side holding on to their lead. A half-time draw remains possible, as Al Ahed failed to score in the first half in 60% of their last five matches. However, the clear difference in the teams’ scoring effectiveness makes a home lead both at half-time and at full-time the strongest scenario. The assessment is based on recent results, as both teams’ season-long figures are zero and do not provide a reliable basis for comparison.