Arbroath vs Queen's Park: match statistics

Arbroath have clearly stronger home form: they have lost none of their three matches, winning 33% of them and keeping a clean sheet in 67% of cases. Queen's Park are still winless away from home, have failed to score in any match, and concede an average of 1.33 goals. Although the hosts create relatively few chances, with an average xG of 0.51, the visitors' defense allows opponents chances worth as much as 2.20 xG per match. Over the last five rounds, Arbroath have collected 7 points, compared with just 4 for Queen's Park, while the visitors have scored only 2 goals during this period. The low goal output from both sides increases the likelihood of a draw, but Arbroath's defensive advantage and Queen's Park's weak away attack point towards a narrow home win.

The strongest signal is Queen's Park’s very weak attack: the team has yet to score an away goal, averages just 1 shot on target per match, and has a season xG of only 0.59. The visitors have failed to score in 100% of their away matches so far, while BTTS has not occurred in any of their away fixtures; across their last five matches, they averaged just 0.4 goals. Arbroath are not a team that guarantees goals either, averaging 0.75 goals at home with an xG of 1.24, although Queen's Park’s weak defense, conceding an average of 2.20 xG, gives the hosts a realistic chance of scoring. Recent form also supports a BTTS - No scenario, as BTTS occurred in 40% of Arbroath’s last five matches and just 20% of Queen's Park’s fixtures. With the league BTTS average standing at 34%, it is more likely that at least one team—above all the visitors—will fail to score.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals, as both teams have recorded this outcome in all of their league matches so far. Queen's Park have yet to score away from home, recording just 0.59 xG and averaging only 1 shot on target per match, which significantly limits the visitors' scoring potential. Arbroath concede an average of 1.75 goals, but in their last five matches, the opponents of both teams scored 1.4 goals each, while their games went Over 2.5 goals only 40% and 20% of the time, respectively. The hosts have the better attacking outlook, creating an average of 1.24 xG, while Queen's Park's defense allows 2.20 xG; however, their average goals scored is only 0.75. The projected total of 2.14 goals points to a scenario with two or three goals, while the 3.5 line provides a clear safety margin.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Arbroath win by full-time, as neither team has yet held a lead at the break, while half-time draws have occurred in 50% of the hosts’ matches and 67% of the visitors’ games. Queen’s Park average just 0.0 goals per match and have failed to score in 100% of their appearances so far, which significantly limits their chances of maintaining a favourable result. Arbroath create considerably more: their average xG is 1.24 compared with the opponents’ 0.59, while the hosts average 5.0 shots on target per match against just 1.0 for Queen’s Park. The hosts’ advantage should grow after the break, as they have averaged 0.6 goals in the second half across their last five matches, compared with just 0.2 for the visitors. Queen’s Park’s weak defense, conceding an average of 2.20 goals according to xG, favors Arbroath deciding the match in the second half.