Arbroath vs Raith Rovers: match statistics

Raith Rovers are 3rd and have won 6 of their 12 matches, while eighth-placed Arbroath have won 3 and lost 7. In their last 5 rounds, the hosts suffered 4 defeats, scoring 3 goals and conceding 9; the visitors won 2 matches over the same period, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Away from home, Raith average 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, while Arbroath average 1.00 and 0.80 respectively at home, so the visitors’ advantage is not substantial. The quality of the chances created also points in their favor: Raith’s away xG is 0.90 compared with Arbroath’s 0.62 at home, although both figures suggest a match with relatively few chances. The visitors are favorites, but 40% of Arbroath’s home matches have ended in a draw, leaving a significant chance of the points being shared.

I’m backing BTTS - No, as both teams scored in only 17% of Arbroath’s home matches, compared with 50% of Raith Rovers’ away games. Arbroath have scored just 3 goals in their last 5 matches, with an average xG of 0.77 over that period, increasing the likelihood that the hosts fail to find the net. The visitors concede an average of 0.67 goals away from home and keep a clean sheet in 33% of matches, so their defense could exploit Arbroath’s recent struggles in front of goal. The main risk to this pick is that the hosts have recently conceded an average of 1.8 goals, but Raith Rovers’ away xG is only 0.90. Overall, the data do not provide strong enough grounds to expect both teams to score.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 83% of Arbroath’s home matches and 100% of Raith Rovers’ away matches. The 2.5 line also points towards a low-scoring game, though less strongly, with fewer than 3 goals in 83% and 67% of these matches, respectively. The hosts average 1.5 goals at home, but the visitors concede just 0.67 goals away, limiting the potential for a high-scoring game. Meanwhile, Raith Rovers average 1.17 goals away, while Arbroath have scored just 0.6 goals per match across their last five games. The forecast of 2.12 total goals suggests that at least four goals would be needed to lose the Under 3.5 bet—a tally that recent results rarely point to.

The strongest signal points to Raith Rovers leading at the break and holding on to their advantage: Arbroath were trailing at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, while the visitors were ahead in 2 of 5. Over the same period, the hosts scored an average of just 0.6 goals per match and conceded 1.8, compared with Raith's 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded. After the break, Arbroath have recently averaged 0.2 goals, while Raith have averaged 0.6, increasing the likelihood that the visitors will hold any lead they establish. A more cautious assessment is supported by the hosts' xG of 1.65 compared with 0.90 for the visitors, so a half-time draw followed by a Raith win remains a significant alternative. Despite Arbroath's advantage in the quality of chances created, their 4 defeats in their last 5 matches suggest that current form is more favourable to the 2/2 pick.