Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus: match statistics

Olympiakos Piraeus come into the match on the back of a league victory in which they kept a clean sheet, while Asteras Tripolis began the season with a 1:3 defeat. In their last five matches, the hosts have scored 4 goals and conceded 6, averaging just 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Over the same period, the visitors have managed only 3 goals but have conceded just 4, while their only match so far this season ended in a 1:0 result. Asteras have a slightly better record across their last five matches, averaging 1.4 points per game compared with Olympiakos’ 1.0, but the visitors’ current defensive stability points to a narrow advantage for them. The low attacking output of both teams increases the likelihood of a draw; however, a narrow Olympiakos victory appears more probable.

The BTTS - No pick is supported by the low percentage of matches in which both teams scored: in the current seasonal data, it stands at 0% for both teams, while the league average is only 33%. Over the last five matches, this figure rises to 40% for both sides, but Asteras averaged just 0.8 goals and Olympiakos 0.6. The hosts kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches so far, which is a particularly strong signal against an away goal. Olympiakos recently recorded an xG of 1.71, but their actual output was just 3 goals in five matches, making it more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

Asteras’ latest five matches produced an average of 2.0 total goals, with the team scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 goals per match. Over the same period, Olympiakos participated in matches averaging 1.4 goals, scoring 0.6 and conceding 0.8. The 2.5-goal line was surpassed in only 2 of Asteras’ last 5 matches and in 1 of Olympiakos’ 5 matches, clearly limiting the prospects of a high-scoring game. At the same time, the creative potential is not negligible: the average xG from the last five appearances stands at 1.39 for the home side and 1.71 for the visitors, meaning that the Under 1.5 goals option does not offer such a strong edge. The projected 2.40 goals, however, indicate that Under 3.5 goals is the safest choice, with a clear margin against the line.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Olympiakos win at full-time, as the visitors were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches and were not trailing in any of them at half-time. During this period, both teams averaged just 0.2 goals before the break, while Olympiakos conceded no goals in the first halves, clearly supporting a cautious start. In their last five matches, Asteras conceded an average of 1.2 goals per game while scoring only 0.8, whereas Olympiakos drew as many as 40% of their full-time matches, so the visitors’ advantage should not be evident from the first whistle. Goals were scored after half-time in 80% of the last matches played by both teams, and Olympiakos averaged 0.4 goals in that period, giving them a realistic route to deciding an evenly balanced game. The home side’s current-season data is based on a very small sample, despite showing 2.97 xG and 26 shots, so greater weight should be placed on the consistent signal of a half-time draw followed by a late turnaround.