Ayr United vs Arbroath: match statistics

Ayr United hold a clear form advantage over the last five matches: they scored 10 goals and recorded 4 wins (form: lwwww), averaging 2.0 goals per game and 2.4 points per game. Arbroath, despite sitting top of the table, has scored only 4 goals in five matches and won twice (form: wlllw), i.e. 0.8 goals per game and 1.2 points per game. Defensively Ayr also performs better — they conceded 4 goals in the last 5 matches (0.8 per game) versus 8 conceded by Arbroath (1.6 per game). The offensive differential (2.0 vs 0.8 goals/game) and superior 2.4 vs 1.2 points per game favour the home side, although Arbroath’s position at 1st keeps them a dangerous opponent. On this basis I tip an Ayr United win, with a draw as a moderate-probability alternative scenario.

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows Ayr scores on average 2.0 goals and concedes 0.8 per game, while Arbroath has only 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded; in totals that's 10:4 goals in favor of Ayr over the last 5 fixtures. Both teams registered BTTS in 40% of their last 5 matches, which provides a moderate baseline for BTTS but does not strongly bias toward Yes. Ayr generates higher xG (1.34 vs 1.07) and converts that into a higher actual goals output (2.0 vs 0.8), whereas Arbroath’s xG of 1.07 is not reflected in real goals (0.8), indicating the away side underperforms on finishing. Additionally, Ayr has won 4 of 5 (form lwwww) while Arbroath has only 2 wins in the sequence (wlllw), suggesting a home advantage and a greater likelihood that Arbroath will not score; therefore the pick is BTTS - No with a confidence split 65% vs 35% for Yes.

Ayr United scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches (2.0 per match) with xG 1.34, while Arbroath has 4 goals in their last 5 (0.8 per match) and xG 1.07. Ayr concedes on average 0.8 goals in the last 5, and Arbroath concedes 1.6, yielding an observed combined output of 2.8 goals in recent games and combined xG 2.41. Averaging actual goals and xG gives predicted 1.67 goals for Ayr and 0.94 for Arbroath, totaling 2.61 goals — 1.11 goals above the 1.5 line. For these reasons I rate Over 1.5 goals at 86% (Under 14%), Over 2.5 goals at 62% (Under 38%) and Over 3.5 goals at 29% (Under 71%); the strongest recommendation is Over 1.5. Additionally, Ayr has 4 wins in their last 5 versus Arbroath’s 2, confirming the home side’s attacking advantage and increasing the likelihood of at least 2 goals in the match.

Data clearly indicate an Ayr United advantage: in the last 5 matches the home side averaged 2.0 goals and won 80.0% of games (4 of 5), while Arbroath averaged 0.8 goals and won 40.0% (2 of 5). At half-time Ayr averages 0.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, while Arbroath averages 0.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, giving Ayr the edge in the first half (+0.4 vs -0.6 for the visitors). Ayr led at the break in 40.0% of cases, Arbroath only in 20.0%, so a lead at the break for the home team is likely. Over the full match Ayr averages 2.0 scored and 0.8 conceded, while Arbroath averages 0.8 scored and 1.6 conceded, which strongly favors a home win. Therefore the most secure scenario is Ayr leading at half-time and winning at full-time (1/1) with a 38% probability, with significant support for the half-time draw then home win scenario (X/1) at 28%.