Ayr United vs St. Johnstone: match statistics

The favorite is St. Johnstone — the visitors top the table (position 1) with a record of 21 wins, 11 draws and 3 losses, while Ayr United sit 7th with 8 wins, 15 draws and 12 losses. Offensively the visitors hold a clear advantage: St. Johnstone have 66 goals this season and score 1.71 goals per away match, averaging 14.06 shots and 4.82 on target, whereas Ayr have 38 goals this season and score 1.00 goals per home match with 10.18 shots and 3.88 on target. Defensively St. Johnstone also outperform — they concede 0.82 goals per away match on average and record 53% clean sheets, while Ayr concede 1.24 goals at home and have only 18% clean sheets; season goals conceded are 25 vs 46. Form trend confirms the gap: in the last 5 matches St. Johnstone scored 13 goals, with 4 wins and 1 draw (PPG 2.6), while Ayr scored 4 goals, won 1 match and averaged 0.8 points per match, conceding 8 goals. Considering higher xG (1.66 vs 1.34), better finishing and defense, and the hosts’ poorer recent form, I forecast an away win; probability estimate is 70% for a St. Johnstone win, 18% for a draw and 12% for an Ayr win.

I project No BTTS (No Goal/Both Teams To Score - No): both teams register high clean sheet rates — Ayr United 56% and St. Johnstone 53%, while league-wide clean sheets occur in 66% of matches, reducing the likelihood of Goal/Goal. In the last 5 matches Ayr averaged 0.8 goals scored and conceded 1.6 (4 scored, 8 conceded), whereas St. Johnstone averaged 2.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded (13–3), indicating strong away offensive form and weaker home attacking efficiency. Seasonal goal averages are 2.06 for Ayr and 1.71 for St. Johnstone, with xG at 1.89 (Ayr) versus 1.66 (StJ) — differences are marginal, but recent form and defensive stats favor a No BTTS outcome. Additionally, seasonal BTTS rates are 39% for Ayr and 47% for St. Johnstone, so based on the data I rate the “No” scenario as more probable.

The xG model indicates approximately 1.40 expected goals for Ayr (xG for 1.89 vs xG against St. Johnstone 0.91 → (1.89+0.91)/2=1.40) and 1.21 for St. Johnstone (xG for 1.66 vs xG against Ayr 0.76 →1.21), total ≈2.61. Seasonal goals averages are 2.06 for Ayr and 1.71 for St. Johnstone, and the percentage of matches over 1.5 goals is 67% for the home side and 71% for the away side, which strongly favors Over 1.5. Ayr averages 5.44 shots on target per match versus 4.82 for St. Johnstone, and both teams have high rates of matches with at least one goal (Over 0.5: 83% and 82%), increasing the likelihood of a second goal. Seasonal Over 2.5 rates are more balanced (50% for Ayr, 47% for St. Johnstone), so I assess Over 2.5 as moderately likely (~56%), while Over 3.5 appears unlikely (33%/29% seasonally → ~31%). On this basis the best and strongest line to play is Over 1.5, as the combined xG of 2.61 and high seasonal Over 1.5 percentages provide the clearest edge.

Seasonal statistics strongly favor an Ayr United lead at half-time: the home side have led at the break in 56% of their home matches, scoring on average 1.11 goals by half-time and conceding only 0.33, while St. Johnstone average 0.71 goals scored and 0.41 conceded by half-time on the road. Over the full match Ayr also display superior metrics — higher xG (1.89 vs 1.66), more shots (16.06 vs 14.06) and a higher seasonal goals average (2.06 vs 1.71), which translates into 61% home wins and 2.17 points per game. At the same time St. Johnstone are in excellent form — the visitors have won 80% of their last five matches and average 2.6 goals per game, whereas Ayr have 20% wins and 0.8 goals per game in that period. Second-half data indicate a risk of a turnaround: in the last five matches St. Johnstone are +6 goals in second halves and average 1.4 goals after the break versus 0.4 for the hosts, therefore the scenario of Ayr leading at half-time then losing to the visitors (1/2) I assess at 18%. As a result the strongest signal is Ayr leading at half-time and winning to full-time (1/1), taking into account the 56% half-time leads, xG 1.89 vs 1.66 and seasonal goals average 2.06 vs 1.71, so this scenario carries the highest probability.