Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers: match statistics

A draw looks the most likely outcome: Birmingham have drawn all 4 of their home matches so far, while Queens Park Rangers have drawn 3 of their 5 away games. However, the hosts are in better recent form, winning 2 of their last 5 matches and scoring 8 goals, while the visitors are yet to win and have scored just 4. At home, Birmingham average 1.75 goals from an xG of 1.56, giving them greater attacking potential than QPR’s away averages of 1.4 goals and 1.31 xG. On the other hand, the visitors concede just 0.8 goals per away match, while Birmingham allow opponents to score an average of 1.75 goals at home. These contrasting strengths, combined with both teams’ tendency to draw, point to the points being shared.

The BTTS - Yes scenario is supported by both teams scoring in 50% of Birmingham’s matches and 80% of Queens Park Rangers’ matches, compared with a league average of 66%. Across their last five games, both teams scored in 80% of Birmingham’s matches and 60% of QPR’s, while conceding an average of 1.4 and 1.0 goals per game, respectively. Birmingham average 2.27 xG against the 1.46 xG conceded by QPR, which points to a home goal despite Birmingham scoring just 1.0 goal per game on average. The greater risk to this selection is the visitors’ attack: they have scored only 0.8 goals per game recently, while Birmingham have failed to score in 50% of their matches. However, QPR’s season average of 1.4 goals suggests an away goal remains a realistic possibility.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in 75% of Birmingham’s home matches and 80% of Queens Park Rangers’ away games. The scoring averages also support this line — the hosts score and concede 1.0 goal per game, while the visitors average 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded. However, Birmingham’s attacking potential should not be underestimated: their average xG is 2.27, compared with 1.31 for the visitors, which argues against setting the line as low as 1.5 goals. Birmingham’s last five matches produced an average of 3.0 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 80% of them. In contrast, the visitors’ last five games averaged just 1.8 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 20%. A total-goals forecast of 2.5 accounts for these conflicting signals and gives Under 3.5 a clearer edge than either pick at the 2.5-goal line.

A draw at half-time is likely, as Queens Park Rangers were level at the break in 3 of their 5 matches so far, and this outcome occurred twice in each team’s last five matches. Although the visitors average 1.0 first-half goals compared with Birmingham’s 0.25, their advantage in this phase may not last until full-time. The hosts average 2.27 xG compared with the visitors’ 1.31 and register 6.5 shots on target per match against 4.0, increasing their chances of turning the game around after the break. In their last five matches, Birmingham won the second half in 60% of games, compared with QPR’s 20%; the visitors failed to score after half-time in 4 of those 5 matches. Therefore, a draw at half-time followed by a Birmingham win is the strongest single scenario, although QPR’s run of 4 draws in their last 5 matches means a draw after 90 minutes remains a significant alternative.