Cacahuatique vs FAS: match statistics

FAS is the favorite based on overall balance: they have 30 wins this season versus Cacahuatique’s 14 and have scored 102 goals compared to the hosts’ 56. Away, the visitors average 2.04 goals per match and register 4.87 shots on target, while the home side averages 1.00 goal and 4.05 shots on target per match. The difference in efficiency is clear — shot conversion is 21% for FAS versus 11% for Cacahuatique, resulting in FAS delivering 2.04 goals on xG 1.46, whereas the hosts, despite xG 1.51, manage only 1.00 goal on average at home. Form also favors the visitors: in the last 5 matches FAS have 3 wins and 2 draws, scoring 9 and conceding 3 (averaging 2.2 points per match), while Cacahuatique’s last 5 are 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, 5-8 in goals and averaging 1.0 point per match. Additionally, FAS have a positive goal differential in away matches (+20 versus the hosts’ -11) and a lower average goals conceded (1.21 vs 1.48), and they shut out opponents less often (17% vs 35%), therefore I predict an away win.

I favor BTTS - Yes as the more likely scenario: the league BTTS rate is 54%, and the teams have seasonal rates of 48% (Cacahuatique) and 58% (FAS), which combined favors goals from both sides. Both teams have realistic scoring potential: season average goals are 2.3 for the home side and 2.04 for the visitors, xG is 1.57 vs 1.46, and shots on target average 5.48 vs 4.87, so there is potential for at least one goal each. Looking at form, FAS scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches (1.8 avg) and conceded 3 (0.6 avg), while Cacahuatique in their last 5 had 5 scored and 8 conceded (1.0 and 1.6 avg), which suggests the visitors create chances while the home side has been more prone to conceding. Offsetting this are the home clean sheet expectation (48% season) and the fact FAS fail to score in 17% of matches, which presents a real risk of No Goal from the visitors and limits BTTS certainty. As a result, the balance of seasonal and form numbers leads me to moderately favor Yes at 62% vs 38%, because the combined xG advantage (1.57 vs 1.46), seasonal goals (2.3 vs 2.04) and FAS’s 1.8 average goals in the last 5 matches more strongly support both teams scoring.

Expected xG for this match is about 1.45 for Cacahuatique and 1.26 for FAS, totaling 2.71 (calculated as the average of team attacking xG and opponent defensive xG: (1.57+1.33)/2 and (1.46+1.05)/2). Empirically both teams have very high percentages of matches over 1.5 goals: Cacahuatique 78% and FAS 92% (average 85%), while a Poisson model with λ=2.71 suggests P(over1.5)≈75% — the compromise leads to an assessment of ~80% for Over 1.5. For the 2.5 line, seasonal values are 65% (home) and 46% (away), average 56%, and Poisson with xG gives ~51%, therefore I assign Over 2.5 about 55%, taking into account the home shots advantage (12.13 vs 10.0) and higher on-target shots (5.48 vs 4.87). For 3.5 seasonally it’s 43% vs 38% (average 41%), but Poisson indicates lower chances (~29%), so I conservatively rate Over 3.5 at 35%; the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (line 1.5) due to the 78%/92% seasonal rates and total xG 2.71, which together suggest at least 2 goals in the match.

I assess the most likely scenario is the home side leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1), because the hosts led at the break in 57% of their games versus 30% for the visitors, and the home team’s points average is 2.57 per match compared to 1.75 for FAS. The hosts score on average 1.13 goals by half-time and concede only 0.26 in the first 45 minutes, while the visitors average 0.83 scored and 0.65 conceded in that phase, which gives a clear advantage to the home team in maintaining a lead. Additionally, the home xG is 1.57 versus 1.46 for the visitors, average shots on target are 5.48 vs 4.87, and the season average goals for the hosts is 2.3 compared to 2.04 for the visitors, which together suggest greater chance creation and finishing efficiency by Cacahuatique. I do not dismiss the possibility of a draw or a turnaround, so I assigned moderate probabilities to X/1 (17%), X/X (10%) and 2/2 (10%), taking into account that the visitors won 60% of their last five matches and that both teams have 87% of matches with a goal in the second half. The specific allocation of 40% to 1/1 and smaller shares to 1/X (8%), X/2 (7%) and 2/X (4%) reflects both the home advantage in the first half and the statistical activity of both teams in second halves.