Carrick Rangers vs Ballymena United: match statistics

Carrick Rangers have a clear attacking edge: across the season they scored 56 goals versus Ballymena United’s 40, and at home they average 1.67 goals per match compared to the visitors’ 1.06 goals per away match. The hosts create better chances — at home they average 10.35 shots per match, 4.18 on target, and have an average xG of 1.35 versus Ballymena’s 1.08, with a conversion rate of 16% vs 13%. The visitors weaken on the road: they lost 65% of away matches, have an away goal difference of -10 and failed to score in 35% of away games, which limits their offensive threat. Defensive differences are smaller but still favor the hosts — Carrick concede 1.56 goals per home match (xG against 1.38) versus Ballymena’s 1.65 conceded on the road (xG against 1.56), and the hosts record 22% clean sheets compared to the visitors’ 12%. Considering recent scoring form (Carrick 10 goals in the last 5 matches vs 6 for Ballymena), a better points average over the last 5 matches (1.4 vs 1.2) and the advantage in chance creation, I tip a home win; suggested probabilities are 60% home win, 20% draw and 20% away win.

I project BTTS - Yes — season BTTS rates are 53% for Carrick Rangers and 53% for Ballymena United versus a league BTTS level of 52%, providing a solid baseline signal. The signal is reinforced by form: BTTS in the last 5 matches is 60% for the home side and 80% for the away side, a 70% short-term average. Both teams regularly concede — season goals conceded averages are 1.35 (home) and 1.65 (away), with xG against of 1.46 and 1.56 respectively, meaning opponents create over 1.4 xG per game. Offensively the home team records 3.69 shots on target and 9.56 shots per game versus 2.82 and 8.29 for the away team, with a 13% conversion for both, so scoring opportunities arise on both sides; low clean sheet percentages of 24% and 12% (respectively) further support a Goal/Goal scenario.

Calculated expected goals are 1.39 for the home side (home xG 1.21 adjusted for away defense 1.56) and 1.27 for the visitors (away xG 1.08 and home defense 1.46), totaling 2.66 goals. Both teams have a very high share of matches with at least 2 goals: Carrick 94% and Ballymena 88%, yielding roughly a 91% chance for Over 1.5. A Poisson model on a 2.66 mean indicates about a 50% probability of 3+ goals, while seasonal Over 2.5 rates are 41%/47% for home/away, so Over 2.5 is moderately likely (around 50/50). Both sides record 53% of matches with both teams scoring and combine for approximately 17.9 shots and 6.5 shots on target with a 13% conversion rate, which supports goal occurrence. Therefore the best and strongest play is Over 1.5 — the high seasonal rates of 94%/88% together with an expected 2.66 goals constitute the clearest signal.

Statistics indicate the most likely Half-Time outcome is a draw: hosts are level at the break in 35% of matches, while visitors are level at half-time in 41%. Nevertheless, Carrick Rangers hold the advantage in the second half — they earn an average of 1.59 points in the latter period versus 1.00 for Ballymena United, and the second-half goal difference is +6 for the hosts versus -5 for the visitors. At half-time the hosts score an average of 0.53 goals compared to 0.35 for the visitors, and in the last five fixtures the hosts led at the break in 40% of matches, scoring on average 0.6 goals by half-time versus 0.2 for their opponents. The visitors concede an average of 1.00 goal after the break and keep a second-half clean sheet in only 28% of matches, whereas the hosts have such a rate of 59%, which increases the likelihood of a turnaround in favor of the hosts after the interval. Therefore the most probable scenario is a Half-Time draw and a Home win Full-Time (X/1), combining the high proportion of draws at half-time (35–41%) with Carrick Rangers’ second-half superiority (1.59 pts vs 1.00 pt and +6 vs -5).