Casa Pia vs Benfica: match statistics

Benfica have shown clearly greater attacking potential in their recent matches, scoring 16 goals in five games, while Casa Pia have found the net only 4 times over the same period. The visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 2.0 points per game, compared with Casa Pia’s 2 wins and 1.6 points per game. Benfica’s defense has conceded 5 goals in their last five outings, but the hosts’ limited attacking efficiency should reduce the risk of this weakness being exploited. Casa Pia have already suffered a defeat in their only match of the current season and failed to score, whereas Benfica drew 2:2, demonstrating greater quality in attack. The visitors’ advantage in the number of chances created and converted points towards a win, although a draw remains a realistic possibility given Casa Pia’s two draws in their last five matches.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, primarily due to Casa Pia’s limited finishing: the team has scored only 4 goals in its last 5 matches, averaging 0.8 per game. BTTS landed in just 20% of the hosts’ last five matches, while Benfica recorded this scenario in 60% of games, creating a clear difference. Benfica are highly dangerous in attack, averaging 3.2 goals in their last 5 matches with an xG of 2.27, so their goal is highly likely. Casa Pia do have an xG of 1.52, but Benfica allow opponents just 1.03 xG and concede an average of 1.0 goal. Therefore, the more realistic scenario is that at least one team—most likely the hosts—will fail to score.

Benfica are in excellent attacking form: they have averaged 3.2 goals over their last five matches, with average xG of 2.27. Casa Pia have scored just 0.8 goals per game over the same period, but have conceded only 0.4, so a very high-scoring game should not be assumed without reservation. Despite the hosts’ solid defensive record, Benfica have created chances worth an average of 2.27 xG across their last five appearances, while Casa Pia have allowed opponents 1.29 xG. Four of Benfica’s last five matches went over 2.5 goals, while the league average of 2.56 goals also supports a scenario with at least two goals. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the visitors’ high attacking efficiency provides a solid foundation for covering this low line even with a limited contribution from Casa Pia.

Benfica have shown clearly better form in their last five matches, averaging 3.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Casa Pia have scored 0.8 goals per match. The visitors held a lead at the break in 60% of those appearances and scored an average of 1.2 first-half goals, whereas the hosts managed just 0.4 goals in the opening 45 minutes. Benfica’s advantage remains significant after half-time, as they average 2.0 goals compared with Casa Pia’s 0.4. The hosts’ season data is based on only one match, so the current run is a stronger signal: Benfica have won 60% of their matches, while Casa Pia have won only 40%. The most likely HT/FT outcome therefore remains a lead for the visitors at half-time followed by a full-time victory.