Ceará vs Cuiabá: match statistics

Ceará have a clear advantage in current form: they have collected 8 points from their last five matches, winning 2 and losing only once, while Cuiabá have failed to win any of their games and earned just 3 points. At home, the hosts create more chances, averaging 16.45 shots and 5.45 shots on target per match, compared with Cuiabá’s 9.9 shots and 3.2 shots on target away from home. The difference is also reflected in chance quality: Ceará’s average home xG stands at 1.81, while Cuiabá’s away xG is just 1.10; the visitors have failed to score in as many as 60% of their away fixtures. Cuiabá are defensively solid, however, conceding only 0.8 goals per away match and drawing 50% of their games on the road, so a draw remains a realistic outcome. Ceará’s superior momentum and advantage in chance creation nevertheless point towards a narrow home victory.

The seasonal rate of matches in which both teams scored is clearly low: 36% for Ceará and just 30% for Cuiabá, compared with the league average of 48%. Cuiabá score only 0.70 goals per match on average and failed to score in as many as 60% of their matches this season, significantly increasing the likelihood that at least one team will be kept off the scoresheet. Ceará keep a clean sheet in 45% of matches, while Cuiabá do so in 40%, with average goals conceded of 0.73 and 0.80 respectively. The last five matches provide a slightly more open signal for the visitors, with BTTS occurring in 60% of games, although they have still scored only 0.8 goals per match. Ceará’s superiority in chance creation, reflected in an xG of 1.71 compared with Cuiabá’s 1.10, points more towards a one-sided home win than regular goals from both teams. This supports the BTTS - No selection, meaning that at least one team is expected not to score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

The season profiles of both teams clearly point to a low-scoring match: Ceará average 0.82 goals, while Cuiabá average just 0.70. The 3.5-goal line has not been exceeded in 91% of Ceará’s matches and 90% of Cuiabá’s, while Over 2.5 goals has landed in only 9% and 20% of their respective games. Cuiabá have failed to score in 60% of matches, while Ceará have kept a clean sheet in 45%, limiting the likelihood of an open game. The hosts create more chances, averaging 1.71 xG and 5.27 shots on target per match compared with the visitors’ 1.10 xG and 3.20 shots on target, but their conversion rate is only 5%. An estimated total of 1.95 goals still strongly supports the Under 3.5 goals pick.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: Ceará went into the break level in 64% of their matches, while Cuiabá did so in as many as 80%, with only 0.55 and 0.80 goals scored on average before half-time, respectively. The hosts are particularly solid in the first half, conceding just 0.18 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 91% of such periods, while Cuiabá have never been leading at the break. After 90 minutes, both teams also share the points very frequently, with draws accounting for 55% of Ceará’s matches and 50% of Cuiabá’s, while the average total goals stand at just 1.55 and 1.50, respectively. Ceará have a qualitative edge over the full match, as reflected by an xG of 1.71 compared with 1.10 and an average of 5.27 shots on target versus 3.20, but the visitors’ low attacking potential and the defensive nature of this matchup provide the strongest support for the draw/draw HT/FT outcome.