Chengdu Better City FC vs Tianjin Teda: match statistics

Chengdu Better City FC sit 1st in the table and have won 62% of their home matches, while Tianjin Teda are 13th and have won 33% of their away games. At home, Chengdu average 2.38 goals with an xG of 2.04, while Tianjin score 1.25 goals on the road with an xG of 1.09. Chengdu’s edge in chance creation is also reflected in their 6.85 shots on target per match compared with Tianjin’s 3.42. However, caution is warranted: the hosts have won only two of their last five matches and conceded 9 goals, while the visitors have suffered one defeat and conceded 6. Despite Tianjin’s slightly better recent run, Chengdu’s greater attacking strength at home points to a home win.

BTTS occurred in 71% of Chengdu’s matches, but in only 42% of Tianjin’s, so the season data is inconclusive. However, recent form points towards both teams scoring: BTTS landed in 60% of each team’s last five matches, while Chengdu conceded an average of 1.8 goals compared with Tianjin’s 1.2. The hosts score an average of 1.5 goals per match and failed to score in just 7% of their games, increasing the likelihood that they will find the net. The greater risk to a BTTS - Yes pick lies with the visitors, who failed to score in 33% of their matches; nevertheless, Chengdu’s average of 1.43 goals conceded and Tianjin’s xG of 1.09 provide grounds to expect them to score as well.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 71% of Chengdu’s matches and as many as 92% of Tianjin’s. The hosts average 1.5 goals per match, while the visitors concede 1.0, which points to Chengdu finding the net but not to an exceptionally high-scoring game. Tianjin average 1.25 goals, but failed to score in 33% of their matches, making their contribution to the total less reliable. The expected 2.67 goals and the clear gap between the share of matches with Over 2.5 goals for Chengdu (64%) and Tianjin (33%) indicate that the 3.5 line offers a safer signal than the 2.5 line.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Tianjin went into the break level in 67% of matches, compared with 43% for Chengdu. The visitors concede an average of just 0.17 goals in the first half, while the hosts score 0.50, limiting the chances of Chengdu taking an early lead. The hosts could have a greater advantage after the break: they average 1.00 goals in the second half, compared with Tianjin’s 0.83, and also average 4.00 shots on target per match overall, against 3.42 for the visitors. Another argument in favor of a Chengdu win is that they allow opponents chances worth a total xG of 1.37, compared with Tianjin’s 1.78. However, X/1 is not a clear favorite, as Tianjin have conceded an average of just 0.40 goals after the break across their last five matches, making a full-time draw a significant alternative.