Chicago Fire II vs FC Cincinnati II: match statistics
Chicago Fire II vs FC Cincinnati II: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Chicago Fire II played FC Cincinnati II in MLS Next Pro (United States). The match was played on 2 August 2026. Venue: SeatGeek Stadium. Final score: 7:2.
Current form
Chicago Fire II: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. FC Cincinnati II: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Chicago Fire II scores 1.74 and concedes 1.53 goals per match. FC Cincinnati II scores 1.00 and concedes 1.89. League average: 3.26 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Chicago Fire II 68%, FC Cincinnati II 47%. Over 2.5: Chicago Fire II 84%, FC Cincinnati II 63%. League level: BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 66%.
xG, shots and style
Chicago Fire II has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.28. Chicago Fire II: 12.5 shots per match, FC Cincinnati II: 10.0.
Match halves
Chicago Fire II: half-time lead 42%, second-half goals 0.74. FC Cincinnati II: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.74.
Goals by minute
Chicago Fire II: 31-45+ (11 goals). FC Cincinnati II: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS Next Pro: 3.26 goals per match, BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 66%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 3-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Chicago Fire II have a clear statistical advantage: at home they average 2.00 goals per match (33 goals this season, 14 in the last 5), while FC Cincinnati II averages 0.38 goals away (19 goals this season, 7 in the last 5). The hosts have won 63% of their home matches, whereas the visitors have 0% away wins, which strongly favors Fire II at home. Fire II attempt on average 13 shots and 3.75 on target per match with a conversion rate of 15%, while Cincinnati II average 9.25 shots, 3.13 on target and only 4% conversion, and additionally failed to score in 63% of their away games. Defensively Fire II concede 1.25 goals on average at home versus 2.63 conceded by the visitors away, and the average xG is 1.61 for the hosts and 1.20 for the visitors, indicating better quality of created chances. In the last 5 matches the hosts collected 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, 1.6 pts/match) compared to 5 points for the visitors (1-2-2, 1.0 pts/match); therefore I predict a Chicago Fire II victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistical analysis favors BTTS - Yes: in the last 5 matches both teams scored in 80% of cases (home 80%, away 80%), while the league-wide BTTS rate is 61%. Chicago Fire II have scored 14 goals in their last 5 matches (2.8 avg), have 33 goals this season (1.45 avg) and conceded 29 (1.36 avg). FC Cincinnati II have 19 goals season-to-date (0.38 avg) but scored 7 in the last 5 (1.4 avg) with a recent xG of 1.38. Cincinnati concede 2.63 goals per match on average and have no clean sheets (0%), which, given Chicago’s shot conversion of 14% and 4.0 shots on target, increases the hosts’ likelihood of scoring; at the same time Cincinnati register 3.13 shots on target, so they have a realistic chance to score despite a low season conversion of 4%. Additionally the league averages 3.22 goals per match and the two teams have conceded a combined 17 goals in their last 5 matches (Chicago 8, Cincinnati 9), therefore I consider BTTS the more probable scenario.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Data indicate a high goal-potential match: league goals average is 3.22, Chicago Fire II has xG 1.33 and a season scoring average of 1.45 goals (last 5 matches: 2.8 goals per match), while FC Cincinnati II has xG 1.20 with a season scoring average of 0.38 goals. Combining both sides’ xG gives a base: Chicago (1.33) versus Cincinnati’s defense (xG against 1.89) yields approx. 1.61 xG, whereas Cincinnati (1.20) against Chicago’s defense (1.67) yields approx. 1.44 xG; after adjusting for Chicago’s higher finishing efficiency (conversion 14% vs. opponent 4%) I project 1.72 for Chicago and 1.35 for Cincinnati, total 3.07 expected goals. A Poisson distribution model with λ=3.07 gives probabilities of over 1.5 ≈81%, over 2.5 ≈59% and over 3.5 ≈37%; additionally, season over2.5 rates are 64% (Chicago) and 63% (Cincinnati), and in the last 5 matches 100% and 80% respectively. The strongest signal is over 1.5 (≈81%) — the most probable outcome according to xG, form and goals averages. Over 2.5 also makes sense (≈59%) given 3.07 expected goals and the league average 3.22, but its lower probability makes it a secondary option.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Chicago Fire II score an average of 1.45 goals per match versus 0.38 for FC Cincinnati II, while the visitors concede an average of 2.63 goals compared to 1.36 conceded by the hosts, giving a clear home advantage in goal balance. xG is 1.33 for Chicago versus 1.20 for Cincinnati, and the hosts register an average of 4.0 shots on target to 3.13 for the visitors and convert at a rate of 14% compared to 4%, meaning similar xG translates into more actual goals for them. In the last five matches the hosts led at the break in 40% of games and averaged 1.4 goals by half-time, while the visitors led in 20% and averaged 0.4 goals by half-time; seasonally the hosts were level at half-time in 45% of matches and the visitors were trailing at half-time in 88% of cases. Additionally, the hosts have gained 11 points by half-time versus 1 point for the away side and show better form (40% wins in the last five matches versus 20% for the visitors), so the strongest signal is Chicago leading at the break and maintaining the win to full-time (HT/FT 1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Chicago Fire II | FC Cincinnati II | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Chicago Fire II is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Chicago Fire II · 1 pts / match - FC Cincinnati II
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Chicago Fire II is 74% better for: goals scored per match.
1.74 goals / match - Chicago Fire II · 1 goals / match - FC Cincinnati II
Chicago Fire II is 24% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.53 goals / match - Chicago Fire II · 1.89 goals / match - FC Cincinnati II
Chicago Fire II scores in 79% of matches (15 of 19 matches), while FC Cincinnati II keeps a clean sheet in 16% (3 of 19 matches).
FC Cincinnati II scores in 63% of matches (12 of 19 matches), while Chicago Fire II keeps a clean sheet in 21% (4 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Chicago Fire II
Over / Under — FC Cincinnati II
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Chicago Fire II is 159% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.63 pts / match - Chicago Fire II · 0.63 pts / match - FC Cincinnati II
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Chicago Fire II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 42% of matches and wins 37%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
FC Cincinnati II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 21%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -5 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (11 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Chicago Fire II
FC Cincinnati II
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS Next Pro).
Teams vs league
| Chicago Fire II | Liga | FC Cincinnati II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.26 | 3.26 | ▼ 2.89 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 68% | 61% | ▼ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 84% | 66% | ▼ 63% |
| Clean sheets | • 21% | 21% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 75% | ▲ 84% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 84% | • 84% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Chicago Fire II 3 - 0 - 0 FC Cincinnati II. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Chicago Fire II vs FC Cincinnati II?
The MLS Next Pro match finished Chicago Fire II 7:2 FC Cincinnati II. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Chicago Fire II and FC Cincinnati II?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Chicago Fire II won 3, FC Cincinnati II won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Chicago Fire II vs FC Cincinnati II?
Chicago Fire II score 1.74 goals per game on average and FC Cincinnati II 1.00. The MLS Next Pro average is 3.26 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 66% of games. Both teams score in 68% of Chicago Fire II's matches and 47% of FC Cincinnati II's.
What form are Chicago Fire II and FC Cincinnati II in?
Over the last 5 games Chicago Fire II have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and FC Cincinnati II 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Chicago Fire II vs FC Cincinnati II?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.