Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima: match statistics

Deportivo Pasto is the favorite for this match: at home they average 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, have a 60% win rate at their stadium, 50% clean sheets and a positive home goal difference (+6). Deportes Tolima on the road score only 0.89 goals per game and concede 1.11, have just an 11% away win rate, and fail to score in 44% of away matches, which limits their effectiveness as visitors. Pasto generates more chances — on average 12.3 shots and 3.5 on target per match versus 9.89 and 3.44 for Tolima, with average xG 1.33 for Pasto against 1.06 for Tolima and a higher conversion rate (11% vs 9%). However, the last 5 matches favor the visitors: Tolima have 3 wins and 1 draw in five (points per game 2.0) and have scored 8 while conceding only 3, whereas Pasto in their last 5 have 2 wins (points per game 1.2) and have conceded 9 goals. Considering Pasto’s advantage in home metrics (low percentage of matches without scoring 10%, better xG and higher shot volume) and Tolima’s good form, I forecast a home win, but with a moderate margin.

On the season Deportivo Pasto averages 1.82 goals scored per home match while Deportes Tolima only 0.89 on the road; Pasto concedes 0.64, Tolima 1.11. Both teams have low season BTTS rates: Pasto 45% and Tolima 44%, versus a league average of 54%, indicating a lower propensity for both teams to score. Additionally Tolima fail to score in 44% of their matches this season, and Pasto keep a clean sheet at home in 45% of games, which lowers BTTS probability. Recent 5-match signals are mixed — Pasto had BTTS in 60% and conceded on average 1.8 goals (9 in 5), Tolima had BTTS in only 20% and conceded 0.6 goals (3 in 5). Considering the season-long low BTTS frequency 45%/44%, Tolima’s high share of games without a goal 44% and Pasto’s edge in xG and shots (xG 1.67 vs 1.06; 16 shots vs 9.89; 5.45 SOT vs 3.44), I select "No" (No Goal) as the more likely outcome.

Using xG as a baseline: home side ~1.50 (xG_for_home 1.67 vs xG_against_away 1.33) and away ~1.07 (xG_for_away 1.06 vs xG_against_home 1.07), expected goals are about 2.57 total. Deportivo Pasto averages 16 shots and 5.45 on target with an 11% conversion, while Tolima averages 9.89 shots and 3.44 on target with a 9% conversion, giving a clear offensive edge to the home team. Season-long metrics show Over 1.5 in 73% of Pasto’s matches and 67% of Tolima’s; although season Over 2.5 rates are lower (36% and 22%), the last 5 rounds show Over 2.5 for the home team in 60% and for the away team in 40%, increasing the likelihood of more goals. A model based on total xG ≈2.57 (Poisson distribution) yields P(Over 1.5) ≈73%, P(Over 2.5) ≈48% and P(Over 3.5) ≈26%, therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5.

Deportivo Pasto holds a clear advantage in the seasonal data: the home side scores an average of 1.82 goals per game versus Deportes Tolima’s 0.89 on the road and concedes only 0.64 goals compared to the visitors’ 1.11. At Half-Time both teams have low efficiency — Pasto averages 0.64 goals per half, Tolima 0.78 — and Pasto keeps a clean sheet at the break in 82% of matches, which increases the likelihood of a draw at the break. After the break home dominance is pronounced: Pasto scores an average of 1.18 goals in the second half, scores at least once after the break in 91% of matches and accumulates 2.27 points in that period, while Tolima scores only 0.11 goals on average after the break. Additionally, the overall home win rate is 73% versus Tolima’s 11% away win rate, which strongly favors a Pasto victory after 90 minutes. Therefore the most probable and strongest signal from the data is a draw at Half-Time and a home win at Full-Time (X/1).