Étoile Carouge vs Wil: match statistics

Étoile Carouge have collected 8 points from their last five matches, whereas Wil have managed only 4, with the visitors posting an unfavorable 8:12 goal difference over that period. At home, the hosts win 67% of their matches, averaging 1.67 goals scored and just 0.67 conceded, while Wil allow opponents as many as 3.33 goals per away game. Carouge create significantly more chances, averaging 21.67 shots, 6.33 shots on target and 2.24 xG, compared with Wil’s 15.33 shots and 1.50 xG. The visitors can score 2 goals per away match, but have yet to keep a clean sheet, while their average xG conceded stands at 1.81. The hosts’ advantage in possession—55% versus 38%—along with a considerably more stable defense, points to an Étoile Carouge victory.

The signal for both teams to score is driven primarily by Wil’s very weak away defense: they concede an average of 3.33 goals and have kept no clean sheets. Étoile Carouge scores only 0.5 goals per home match, but their xG stands at 1.27, while Wil allows opponents an average of 1.81 xG, clearly increasing the hosts’ chances of finding the breakthrough. The visitors are considerably more dangerous in attack, scoring an average of 2.0 goals away from home and registering 5.33 shots on target per match, while Carouge concedes an average of 2.0 goals at home. BTTS - Yes landed in 67% of Wil’s matches and 50% of Carouge’s games, while the figures over the last five matches were 60% and 40%, respectively. The risk to the pick is Carouge’s low conversion rate of 4%; however, Wil’s defensive numbers marginally support a scenario in which both sides find the net.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as at least 2 goals were scored in 100% of the previous matches between the two teams. Wil average 2.0 goals away from home, while Étoile Carouge concede an average of 2.0 goals at home, which clearly supports the visitors’ attacking output. On the other hand, Wil’s away defense allows an average of 3.33 goals, while the hosts have created chances worth 1.96 xG per match in their last five fixtures. Étoile’s recent form has been more conservative, however, with only 0.6 goals conceded on average across five matches, meaning the Over 2.5 line offers moderate rather than decisive value. The 3.0-goal projection provides a significant safety margin for Over 1.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Étoile Carouge win at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for Wil. Carouge have looked clearly stronger in terms of current form, averaging 1.6 points per match versus Wil’s 0.8, while losing just 20% of their games compared with 60% for their opponents. After the break, the hosts conceded an average of just 0.0 goals over their last five matches and did not lose a single second half, whereas Wil lost the second half in 60% of cases. The visitors’ defensive weakness provides further support for a turnaround after the break, with Wil conceding an average of 2.4 goals per match and recording an average xG conceded of 1.81. Although Wil register more shots on target, 5.33 compared with 1.5, Carouge’s poor first-half efficiency and the fact that neither team led at the break in their last five matches further strengthen the draw-at-half-time scenario.