Fasil Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin: match statistics
Fasil Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Fasil Ketema play Ethiopian Medhin in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match date is 1 July 2026 at 17:00. Venue: Polisportivo Comunale di Tarvisio. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Fasil Ketema: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Ethiopian Medhin: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Fasil Ketema scores 0.74 and concedes 0.74 goals per match. Ethiopian Medhin scores 0.78 and concedes 0.84. League average: 1.78 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Fasil Ketema 26%, Ethiopian Medhin 43%. Over 2.5: Fasil Ketema 18%, Ethiopian Medhin 24%. League level: BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
xG, shots and style
Ethiopian Medhin has higher xG: 1.23 vs 1.14. Fasil Ketema: 7.2 shots per match, Ethiopian Medhin: 7.3.
Match halves
Fasil Ketema: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.42. Ethiopian Medhin: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.32.
Goals by minute
Fasil Ketema: 76-90+ (7 goals). Ethiopian Medhin: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.78 goals per match, BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
Fasil Ketema (5th) holds the edge over Ethiopian Medhin (15th) primarily due to a solid home defence: the hosts concede on average 0.78 goals per home match and record a clean sheet in 50% of home games, while the visitors concede 0.89 goals on the road and keep a clean sheet in only 28% of away fixtures. Offensively Ethiopian Medhin look better on paper — the visitors score 0.94 goals per away match and have an xG of 1.24 versus 0.78 scored and home xG of 1.11 in home games; the visitors also register more shots on target (3.17 vs 2.5) and have a higher conversion rate (13% vs 11%). In the last five matches Fasil have scored 4 goals and averaged 1.2 points per game (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses), whereas Medhin have scored 2 goals and average 1.0 point (1-2-2), giving the hosts a slight form advantage. Additionally, the visitors record a high share of draws away — 44% of matches — while the hosts have only 22% draws at home and 44% wins, increasing the likelihood that Fasil will actively seek victory. Considering the better home defence and superior league position, I project a home win; estimated probabilities are 55% for Fasil Ketema, 25% draw and 20% for Ethiopian Medhin.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Fasil Ketema | Ethiopian Medhin | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Fasil Ketema is 125% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Fasil Ketema · 0.8 pts / match - Ethiopian Medhin
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ethiopian Medhin is 5% better for: goals scored per match.
0.74 goals / match - Fasil Ketema · 0.78 goals / match - Ethiopian Medhin
Fasil Ketema is 14% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.74 goals / match - Fasil Ketema · 0.84 goals / match - Ethiopian Medhin
Fasil Ketema scores in 58% of matches (22 of 38 matches), while Ethiopian Medhin keeps a clean sheet in 30% (11 of 37 matches).
Ethiopian Medhin scores in 54% of matches (20 of 37 matches), while Fasil Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 55% (21 of 38 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Fasil Ketema
Over / Under — Ethiopian Medhin
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Fasil Ketema is 15% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.42 pts / match - Fasil Ketema · 1.24 pts / match - Ethiopian Medhin
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Fasil Ketema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ethiopian Medhin - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 24%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Fasil Ketema
Ethiopian Medhin
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Fasil Ketema | Liga | Ethiopian Medhin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.47 | 1.78 | ▼ 1.62 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 26% | 40% | ▲ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 18% | 28% | ▼ 24% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 55% | 40% | ▼ 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 34% | 56% | ▼ 51% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 61% | 59% | • 59% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Fasil Ketema 0 - 1 - 0 Ethiopian Medhin. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Fasil Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Fasil Ketema 1:0 Ethiopian Medhin. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Fasil Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin?
Fasil Ketema score 0.74 goals per game on average and Ethiopian Medhin 0.78. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 26% of Fasil Ketema's matches and 43% of Ethiopian Medhin's.
What form are Fasil Ketema and Ethiopian Medhin in?
Over the last 5 games Fasil Ketema have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Ethiopian Medhin 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Fasil Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Fasil Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.