Fortaleza CEIF vs Once Caldas: match statistics

Fortaleza CEIF win 46% of their home matches and lose 23%, while averaging 57% possession and creating chances worth 1.49 xG per game. Once Caldas lose just 8% of their away matches, but as many as 77% end in draws, strongly reinforcing the likelihood of a share of the points. Both teams average 1.31 goals at their respective venues, while Fortaleza are slightly more solid defensively, conceding 0.92 goals per match compared with the visitors’ 1.15. Recent form offers no clear advantage: the hosts have scored 4 goals and collected 5 points in their last five matches, while the visitors have scored 7 goals and taken 6 points, with both teams conceding exactly 5 goals. Fortaleza have the home advantage, but Once Caldas’ consistent draw record and similar chance-quality metrics—1.49 xG to 1.44—point primarily to a draw.

Seasonal profiles strongly support goals at both ends: BTTS occurred in 69% of Fortaleza’s matches and as many as 85% of Once Caldas’ games, compared with a league average of 52%. Fortaleza average 1.92 goals per match, while Once Caldas average 1.31, with both teams also recording a low clean-sheet rate of just 15%. Their attacking potential is backed by xG figures of 1.81 for the hosts and 1.44 for the visitors, while Fortaleza average 6.31 shots on target compared with Once Caldas’ 4.85. The main warning sign is the hosts’ weaker recent finishing, having scored only 4 goals in their last five matches, with their BTTS rate falling to 40%; however, their opponents posted xG of 1.87 and scored an average of 1.4 goals during this period. With both defenses conceding 1.0 goal per game recently, the more likely scenario remains that each team will find the net—BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal.

The season profiles of both teams point to goals, but not to a very open game: Fortaleza’s matches finished with fewer than 3.5 goals in 69% of cases, compared with 77% for Once Caldas. In their last five matches, Fortaleza scored only 0.8 goals per game and conceded 1.0, while Once Caldas averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Overall, both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in just 40% of their last five appearances, which reduces the weight of the higher season averages. At the same time, the hosts recently created chances worth 1.29 xG, while the visitors recorded 1.87 xG, making the 1.5-goal line remain relatively realistic. However, the strongest signal is for Under 3.5, as neither team is averaging more than 1.4 goals scored in their current form, and historically, four-goal games have been clearly rare for both sides.

A draw at half-time is the most logical scenario, as Once Caldas were level after 45 minutes in 9 of 13 matches, or 69%, compared with 46% for Fortaleza. Both teams tend to play cautiously in the first half: the hosts average 0.92 goals before the break, while the visitors average just 0.46, and both concede 0.46 goals on average. Over their last five matches, the average number of first-half goals was only 1.0 for Fortaleza and 0.6 for Once Caldas, further supporting an even start. The full-time draw remains the most likely outcome, as the visitors finished 77% of their matches level, despite Fortaleza having the better full-season points return, 1.85 versus 1.23. The hosts have held the attacking advantage over the season, averaging 1.92 goals and 1.81 xG compared with their opponents’ 1.31 goals and 1.44 xG, but their recent average of just 0.8 goals scored limits the chances of a clear outcome.