Grobiņa vs Auda: match statistics

Auda is the clear favorite: they sit 3rd in the table versus Grobiņa’s 9th place and have a season record of 12 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses with 36 goals scored compared to the hosts’ 12. Away, Auda averages 1.6 goals and records 4.7 shots on target with 58% possession, while Grobiņa at home only has 0.6 goals per game, 2.5 shots on target and 40% possession. The quality gap is confirmed by xG: Auda posts average xG 1.58 per game versus Grobiņa’s 1.04, and Grobiņa has 60% of home matches without scoring while Auda has 0% such games. Defensively Auda concedes 1.1 goals away on average with xG against 1.08 and keeps 40% clean sheets, whereas Grobiņa concedes 1.6 goals at home with xG against 1.72 and only 20% clean sheets. Considering the last 5 matches (Grobiņa: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses and 0.8 points per game; Auda: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss and 2.0 points per game), I tip the away win and assess their chances at around 70%.

Season-long indicators strongly support BTTS: Grobiņa has 67% matches with both teams scoring, Auda 60%, averaging 63.5% and exceeding the league level of 57%. However, in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred only 40% for both teams, and scoring form shows a divergence — Grobiņa in the last 5 scored 3 and conceded 7 (0.6 scored and 1.4 conceded on average), while Auda scored 7 and conceded 3 (1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded on average). xG and shot metrics favor both teams creating chances: xG for Grobiņa 1.70 versus 1.58 for Auda, xG against 1.27 vs 1.08 and average shots 13.33 vs 13.0 with shots on target 5.22 vs 4.7 indicate both sides generate opportunities. Counter signals are Auda’s 40% clean sheets versus Grobiņa’s 22% and the lower BTTS form in the last 5 matches, but Grobiņa scores seasonally 2.22 goals vs 1.60 for Auda, so at least one home goal is likely. Considering season-long 67%/60% rates along with xG and shooting activity, but accounting for the BTTS drop to 40% in the last 5, I recommend BTTS "Yes" with an estimated probability of ~62% vs 38% for "No".

Grobiņa scores an average of 2.22 goals per season (xG 1.70) and has 100% of matches over 1.5, while Auda records 1.60 goals (xG 1.58) and 80% of matches over 1.5, yielding roughly ~90% combined support for Over 1.5. In the last 5 matches Grobiņa averaged 0.6 goals (last5 xG 1.24) and conceded 1.4, while Auda averaged 1.4 goals (last5 xG 1.79) and conceded 0.6, so the last-5 form slightly reduces the hosts' potency and boosts the visitors' offense. Combined xG forecasts and opponent defense produce an expectation of 1.32 goals for Grobiņa and 1.49 for Auda, i.e. about 2.81 goals in the match. Season shares for Over 2.5 are 78% for Grobiņa and 50% for Auda (average ~64%), so Over 2.5 has a moderate probability (~66%), whereas Over 3.5 is unlikely (33% vs 20%, approximation ~28%). Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest and most probable signal.

The most likely HT/FT scenario is 1/2 (home team leads at half-time, visitors win after the match) — I assign it 32%. Grobiņa led at the break in 5 of their home matches (56% of cases) and scores an average of 1.11 goals by half-time versus 0.7 goals that Auda scores away, which justifies the home advantage before the break. Auda, however, has stronger end-of-game form: they won 70% of their season away matches, average 2.2 points per away game, and won 60% of their last 5 matches, so they have the resources to overturn a deficit. The second half often produces goals for both teams (89% of Grobiņa’s home games have a goal after the break, 90% for the visitors), and Auda scored 4 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 2 for Grobiņa, which favors turnarounds. From these comparisons, 1/2 is the strongest signal, while 1/1 I rate at 18% as a realistic but weaker alternative.