Guabirá vs Real Potosí: match statistics

Guabirá have clear arguments in their favor at home: they win 63% of their matches there, average 2.38 goals, and have failed to score in none of their home games. The hosts also create significantly more, averaging 18.75 shots and 7.75 shots on target per match, with an xG of 2.05, while Real Potosí manage only 0.88 goals and an xG of 1.32 away from home. The visitors are well organized defensively, conceding 0.88 goals per away match, but their low 37% possession share and failure to score in 38% of away fixtures limit their attacking potential. Real Potosí’s current form is slightly more stable, with 2 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat in their last five matches, but Guabirá should capitalize on home advantage and the significantly higher quality of chances they create. The visitors’ high away draw rate of 50% increases the likelihood of a closely contested match, yet a home win remains the most probable outcome.

Seasonal data more clearly supports the BTTS - No outcome: Guabirá keep a clean sheet in 56% of matches, while Real Potosí score an average of just 0.88 goals. BTTS has occurred in only 33% of Guabirá’s matches, compared with 50% for the visitors, with both figures below the league average of 63%. The hosts are favorites to score, creating an average of 2.07 xG and registering 7.11 shots on target per match, compared with Real Potosí’s 1.32 xG and 4.13 shots on target. Guabirá’s last five matches were more open, with BTTS landing in 100% of fixtures and an average of 2.2 goals conceded, but Real Potosí conceded only 0.8 goals per match over the same period, limiting the chances of both teams scoring. The most likely scenario therefore remains one in which Guabirá find the net, but at least one side fails to score.

Guabirá create a high volume of chances at home, averaging 2.07 xG, 19.78 shots and 7.11 shots on target per match, while Real Potosí allow an average of 1.75 xG. The hosts score an average of 1.67 goals, while the visitors average 0.88, providing a solid foundation for Over 1.5 goals. Across the season, at least two goals were scored in 67% of Guabirá’s matches and 75% of Real Potosí’s games. Caution is advised with higher lines, as 75% of Real Potosí’s matches finished under 2.5 goals and as many as 100% under 3.5 goals. Over 1.5 goals is therefore the strongest selection, combining the hosts’ high attacking output with significantly lower risk than betting on three or more goals.

A Half-Time/Full-Time draw/Guabirá win (X/2) is the most likely outcome, as Real Potosí were level at the break in 7 of their 8 matches, or 88% of cases. The first halves of both teams are typically cautious: Guabirá average 0.78 goals in them, compared with 0.38 for Real Potosí, while the hosts keep a clean sheet before half-time in 78% of their matches. After the break, however, the quality advantage lies with Guabirá, who have an average xG of 2.07 compared with the visitors’ 1.32 and average 7.11 shots on target per match against Real’s 4.13. The hosts score an average of 0.89 goals after half-time and concede only 0.33, whereas Real Potosí score 0.50 and concede 0.63 during that period. Further support comes from Guabirá’s higher season-long goalscoring average of 1.67 compared with 0.88, increasing the hosts’ chances of deciding a tightly contested opening half in the second half.