Harju Jalgpallikool vs Vaprus: match statistics

Harju Jalgpallikool has the advantage in chance creation — at home they average 9 shots and 4.4 on target per match, translating to 1.2 goals per game, while Vaprus away averages 6 shots and 2.5 on target with an output of 1.0 goal. The difference in chance quality is confirmed by xG: Harju has 1.25 xG at home versus 0.86 xG for Vaprus on the road, and at the same time the hosts concede 1.4 goals at home on average, while the visitors concede 2.33 away, giving Harju a defensive edge in the season head-to-head comparison. However, the short-term trend favors Vaprus — in the last 5 matches Harju scored 5 and conceded 11 goals, whereas Vaprus scored 7 and conceded 6, and the visitors have a higher points return in the last 5: 1.8 pts versus the hosts’ 1.4 pts. Additionally, Harju keep 40% clean sheets at home versus 17% for the visitors away, but Vaprus’ shot conversion is higher (17% vs 13%), so despite fewer shots the visitors can be dangerous. Considering Harju’s greater volume of chances and better xG alongside Vaprus’ weaker defensive numbers on the road, I back the home win; I assess the probabilities at 55% for the hosts, 25% for a draw and 20% for the visitors.

Statistical analysis favors a 'both teams to score' scenario. Vaprus concedes an average of 2.33 goals away and has a season BTTS rate of 67%, while Harju scores an average of 1.4 goals at home (xG 1.38), increasing the likelihood Harju will find the net. Harju has conceded 11 goals in the last 5 matches (avg 2.2, xG conceded last 5 = 2.05), whereas Vaprus has scored 7 in that period (avg 1.4, attacking xG last 5 = 1.31), supporting a goal from both sides. Shot statistics show Harju’s advantage (10.2 shots and 4.0 on target per match vs Vaprus 6.0 and 2.5) with conversion rates of 14% for Harju and 17% for Vaprus, meaning both teams have realistic scoring chances. Given the league BTTS rate of 53% and the seasonal indicators favoring BTTS (Vaprus 67% vs Harju 40% seasonally), I estimate BTTS - Yes at 68% vs 32% for No Goal and recommend a 'yes' bet.

xG-based model: Harju has an attacking xG of 1.38, Vaprus concedes on average 1.96 xG, yielding 1.67 expected goals for the home side; similarly Vaprus has an attacking xG of 0.86 while Harju concedes 1.45 xG, giving 1.16 for the visitors, totalling 2.83 expected goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.83 translates to roughly a 77% chance of Over 1.5 goals, about 54% for Over 2.5 and around 31% for Over 3.5. Seasonal indicators confirm a scoring tendency: Over 1.5 occurred in 80% of Harju’s matches and 83% of Vaprus’s matches, and the league averages 3.22 goals per match. Additionally Harju averages 4.0 shots on target versus Vaprus’s 2.5, and the hosts have conceded an average of 2.2 goals in the last 5 matches, so the strongest signal from the data is to play Over 1.5.

For the first half a strong signal is that the home side were level at the break in 80% of matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 80.0%), whereas the home lead at half-time occurs in only 20% (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 20.0%). In the second half the data indicate a home advantage: the home team’s average goals scored after the break is 1.0 (scored_2hg_avg_home = 1.0), while the away team concedes on average 1.67 goals after the break (conceded_2hg_avg_away = 1.67) and conceded as many as 6 goals in minutes 61–75 (goals_conceded_min_61_to_75_away = 6.0). Additionally, the home side create more chances (shotsOnTargetAVG_home = 4.0, shotsAVG_home = 10.2) compared to the visitors (shotsOnTargetAVG_away = 2.5, shotsAVG_away = 6.0) and have a higher xG (xG_for_avg_home = 1.38 vs xG_for_avg_away = 0.86), which strengthens the likelihood of a turnaround in favor of Harju after the break. Considering that more than 0.5 goals are scored after the break in 80% of home matches (over05_2hg_percentage_home = 80.0) and in 100% of away matches (over05_2hg_percentage_away = 100.0), the scenario “draw at half-time and home win” (X/1) appears the strongest. Therefore I select X/1 as the most probable outcome: level at half-time and a second-half shift in favor of Harju.