Ilves vs Jaro: match statistics

Ilves have a clear home advantage: they win 55% of their matches on home soil, score an average of 1.55 goals and concede just 1.00, while Jaro have failed to win any away match. The visitors have lost all of their last 5 games, scoring just 1 goal and conceding 11, which confirms their very poor current form. Jaro score an average of only 0.36 goals away from home, fail to find the net in 73% of matches and lose 82% of their away fixtures. Ilves have also been unimpressive in their recent run, with 1 win in 5 matches, but their 1.27 xG at home and 55% clean-sheet rate should be enough against a team with a 3% away shot-conversion rate. A controlled home win is the most likely outcome, potentially with a clean sheet.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Jaro’s very low scoring efficiency: the visitors average just 0.36 goals per match, and have scored only 1 goal across their last 5 games, or 0.2 per match. Jaro have failed to score in 73% of their matches this season, while their BTTS rate is only 27%, clearly below Ilves’ 64% and the league average of 49%. The visitors’ attacking form remains particularly poor, as they have lost their last five matches, although their xG of 1.42 over that period suggests some potential for isolated chances. Ilves concede an average of 1.45 goals, but Jaro convert shots into goals at just a 3% rate, compared with 11% for the hosts. The more likely scenario is therefore that Ilves exploit the opponents’ weak defense, which concedes 2.55 goals per match, while Jaro once again fail to get on the scoresheet.

Ilves should create better scoring chances, as Jaro concede an average of 2.55 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in only 9% of games. The hosts average 5.0 shots on target per match, compared with 3.18 for Jaro, while their shot conversion rate stands at 11%, against just 3% for the visitors. At the same time, Jaro’s attack is highly limited: the team scores 0.36 goals per match this season and have scored only 1 goal in their last five appearances. In their last five matches, both teams produced Over 2.5 goals in only 40% of cases, while 73% of their matches this season ended with Under 3.5 goals. Ilves’ advantage could lead to a result around 2:0 or 2:1, but Jaro’s poor scoring output limits the likelihood of four goals, making Under 3.5 goals the best choice.

Ilves held the lead at the break in 45% of matches, while Jaro were trailing at half-time in 55%, clearly supporting a scenario in which the hosts establish an advantage before the interval. In the first 45 minutes, Ilves average 0.91 goals scored and 0.55 conceded, whereas Jaro score just 0.27 goals while allowing opponents 1.09. Across the season, the visitors have not won a single match, averaging only 0.36 goals per game and conceding 2.55, making a second-half turnaround unlikely. Ilves have also been less convincing recently, drawing at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, which gives the draw/hosts HT/FT outcome a meaningful chance; however, the strongest individual signal remains an Ilves lead at half-time followed by an Ilves win at full-time.