İstanbul Başakşehir vs Kocaelispor: match statistics

İstanbul Başakşehir have scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches, while Kocaelispor have managed just 2 goals over the same period, which clearly gives the hosts the attacking edge. The home side have won 2 of their last five games and averaged 1.4 points per match, whereas the visitors have not won any of their last five, recording 2 draws and 3 defeats. Kocaelispor have conceded an average of 1 goal per game in their last five appearances, but their biggest problem remains their poor finishing, with just 0.4 goals scored per match. Başakşehir have also conceded 7 goals in five matches, so a draw cannot be ruled out; however, their five-goal advantage in attacking output gives them stronger arguments for victory. The recent results and home advantage point to a home win, most likely by a narrow margin.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, primarily due to Kocaelispor’s very limited scoring output: they have scored only 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game. During this period, the visitors generated just 0.95 xG, while Başakşehir conceded an average of 1.4 goals and allowed opponents 1.47 xG—figures that do not guarantee a goal for the weaker attacking side. Başakşehir scored much more frequently, averaging 1.4 goals and 1.71 xG across their last five appearances, making a home goal the most likely outcome. BTTS occurred in 60% of Başakşehir’s recent matches but in only 40% of Kocaelispor’s, while the visitors have failed to win in 4 of their last 5 games. A scenario in which Kocaelispor fail to score therefore looks more credible than both teams finding the net.

In their last five matches, İstanbul Başakşehir averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, indicating potential for a result around two goals, but not consistently high-scoring games. Kocaelispor scored just 2 goals during this period, averaging 0.4 per match, while their average xG was only 0.95. Kocaelispor’s matches did not exceed the 2.5-goal line in any of their last five appearances, whereas this occurred in 60% of Başakşehir’s games. The hosts created chances worth 1.71 xG per match, but the visitors’ defense allowed an average of just 1.05 xG, limiting the prospect of a very high goal tally. The projected total of 2.00 goals favors Under 3.5, as Kocaelispor’s poor finishing significantly reduces the likelihood of four or more goals.

İstanbul Başakşehir have produced significantly better attacking numbers recently, averaging 1.4 goals over their last five matches compared with just 0.4 for Kocaelispor. The hosts won 40% of those games, while the visitors failed to record a single victory and lost 60% of their matches. Before half-time, Başakşehir averaged 1.0 goals compared with Kocaelispor’s 0.2, and the visitors failed to score in the first half in as many as 80% of their last five appearances. The home side led at the break in 40% of their matches, whereas Kocaelispor had not gone into half-time with a lead on any occasion. After the break, the visitors scored just 0.2 goals per game, making the HT/FT scenario of Başakşehir leading at half-time and holding on for the win the strongest outcome. This supports the 1/1 selection.