Jeju United vs Ulsan: match statistics

Jeju United draw as many as 38% of their home matches, and with a goal balance of 1.13:1.13 per game, their fixtures are highly competitive. Ulsan sit higher in the table and win 46% of their away matches, scoring an average of 1.38 goals, but they have suffered 3 defeats and collected only 6 points in their last five league rounds. The hosts generate slightly higher-quality chances at home, with an average xG of 1.58 compared with Ulsan’s 1.53 away from home, while the visitors are more clinical in front of goal: 11% compared with 8%. The defensive records are similar, as Jeju concede 1.13 goals per home match and Ulsan 1.15 away, although the visitors allow opponents a higher xG of 1.58. Ulsan’s slight attacking edge is offset by Jeju’s home advantage and their strong tendency to draw, making a share of the points the most likely outcome.

Jeju United have recorded BTTS - Yes in 77% of their matches, well above the league average of 52%, while Ulsan have seen this outcome in 62% of their games. The hosts score an average of 1.77 goals but concede 1.69, whereas Ulsan score 1.38 goals per match, supporting the likelihood of a goal from both sides. Their attacking potential is also reflected in the xG figures: 1.86 for Jeju and 1.53 for Ulsan, with average xG against figures of 1.69 and 1.58, respectively. Both teams have kept a clean sheet in only 15% of their matches, meaning they regularly allow opponents to create scoring chances. Recent form provides a more cautious signal, as BTTS has occurred in 60% of matches for both teams across their last five appearances, but it remains more likely that each side will score at least one goal.

The projected total of 2.78 goals is based on the combination of both teams’ current attacking form: Jeju scored 1.4 goals per game in their last five matches, while Ulsan averaged 1.6. Both teams regularly allow opponents to create chances, conceding 1.0 and 1.4 goals per game respectively in this period, while their average xG over the last five appearances stands at 1.43 and 1.24. At least two goals were scored in 77% of Jeju’s matches and as many as 92% of Ulsan’s matches this season, while games with a maximum of one goal accounted for only 23% and 8%, respectively. Additionally, both teams had Over 2.5 goals in 60% of their matches across the last five league rounds, although the 2.5 line remains more balanced. Over 1.5 goals is therefore the strongest selection, as the season data and current form clearly reduce the risk of a very low-scoring game.

Jeju United has a clearly stronger first-half profile: in their last five matches, they were leading at the break in 60% of games, while Ulsan had not once gone into half-time ahead. During this period, the hosts conceded just 0.2 goals per match before the break, whereas Ulsan scored only 0.4 goals in the first halves, further supporting the scenario of a Jeju lead. Across the season, Jeju has averaged 1.86 xG and 5.46 shots on target per match, compared with Ulsan’s 1.53 xG and 4.62 shots on target. Ulsan remains dangerous after the interval, averaging 0.92 goals, so the draw at half-time followed by a home win also carries a significant probability. However, the strongest individual HT/FT outcome is Jeju leading at half-time and holding on to win the match (1/1).