Larne vs Glentoran: match statistics

Glentoran sit higher in the table—sixth compared with Larne in ninth—and have already recorded 2 wins this season, with a 6:4 goal difference. Away from home, the visitors create chances worth an average of 1.59 xG, register 12 shots and 5.5 shots on target per match, while averaging 57% possession. Their away defensive record is also solid: they concede just 1 goal on average, allow 1.08 xG, and have kept a clean sheet in 50% of such matches. Larne have scored just 3 goals in their last five outings, while their dldwl run and average of 1 point per match point to limited consistency. Glentoran have also lost 3 of their last 5 matches, so the draw remains a significant risk; however, the visitors’ edge in chance creation and overall efficiency makes them the stronger pick to win.

The stronger signal points toward BTTS - No, as both teams scored in only 20% of Larne’s last five matches and 40% of Glentoran’s. During this period, Larne scored just 0.6 goals per match, with an xG of 1.23, indicating a clear problem converting chances into goals. Both teams kept a clean sheet in 50% of their season matches, while conceding an average of 1.0 goal per game, making a scenario in which one side fails to score realistic. Although the season xG stands at 1.70 for Larne and 1.59 for Glentoran, the league has seen both teams score in only 33% of matches, while as many as 71% of games featured at least one clean sheet. Glentoran is the more dangerous attacking side, averaging 5.5 shots on target compared with Larne’s 4.5, but the hosts’ poor current finishing further increases the probability of a No Goal outcome for one of the teams.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals, as neither team has exceeded this line in any of their league matches so far, while 50% of their games ended with a maximum of two goals. Larne have scored just 3 goals in their last five appearances, averaging 0.6 per match, whereas Glentoran have scored 6, averaging 1.2. The visitors have greater attacking potential, as reflected by their 1.44 xG from the last five matches compared with Larne’s 1.23, but the hosts concede an average of just 1.0 goal, while Glentoran concede 1.2. Both teams have kept clean sheets in 50% of their matches this season, while neither has recorded a game with at least four goals, clearly supporting a low-scoring outlook.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Glentoran win at full-time, as Larne have failed to score before the break in each of their last five matches and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 100% of those games. Neither team has led at the break at any point during the current season, while the average number of first-half goals stands at just 0.5 for each side, clearly supporting a cautious opening. After the interval, Glentoran have shown better current attacking efficiency, averaging 1.2 goals compared with Larne’s 0.6, while their second-half goal balance over the last five matches is +3, against zero for the hosts. The visitors are also marginally better in terms of overall xG, creating 1.59 compared with Larne’s 1.70, but they record 5.5 shots on target per match and convert 13% of their attempts, whereas Larne average 4.5 shots on target with a 10% conversion rate. Glentoran’s advantage should therefore become particularly evident after half-time, when goals have been scored in every second half across their last five matches.