Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia: match statistics

The favorite is Levski Sofia — the hosts sit 1st in the table with 24 wins and 69 goals scored versus CSKA’s 18 wins and 47 goals. Levski’s home attack shows a clear advantage: the hosts average 2.29 goals per home match with xG 2.11, 16.71 shots and 6.53 shots on target per game and a conversion rate of 14%, while CSKA away averages 1.13 goals with xG 1.8, 14.5 shots and 4 shots on target with an 8% conversion. Defensively Levski concedes 0.59 goals per home match and keeps a clean sheet in 53% of home games, whereas CSKA concedes 0.88 away and has 44% clean sheets; additionally CSKA fail to score in 31% of away matches versus 18% for Levski at home. In the last 5 matches both teams conceded 4 goals, but Levski scored 6 compared to CSKA’s 4, and Levski’s superiority is also visible in home goal difference +29 versus CSKA’s +4 away and in the fact that the hosts win 82% of home fixtures with only 12% defeats. Considering control (65% possession Levski vs 56% CSKA), higher xG (2.11 vs 1.8) and better efficiency, I predict a home win; I estimate a 65% chance for Levski to win, 20% for a draw and 15% for a CSKA win.

Levski at home records 56% of matches with BTTS, while CSKA away posts only 25% BTTS, a clear signal against a Both Teams To Score scenario. On the other hand, xG values favor goals from both sides: Levski generates 2.05 xG on average and CSKA opponents concede 1.22 xG; CSKA has 1.8 xG against an average xG conceded to Levski of 1.01, suggesting both teams have realistic opportunities to score at least once. This season Levski have scored 69 goals (1.61 per match) and conceded 25, while CSKA have 47 scored (1.13 per match) and 27 conceded; in the last 5 matches the goals tally is 6 for Levski and 4 for CSKA with an average of 0.8 goals conceded per team, indicating offensive potential and moderate defensive vulnerability. Additionally Levski average 16.28 shots and 5.22 shots on target versus CSKA's 14.5 and 4.0, increasing the home side's chance to score, whereas CSKA’s away tendency to keep clean sheets (44% clean sheets) lowers BTTS probability. Considering Levski's stronger offensive signal, decent xG for CSKA and mixed BTTS indicators (56% vs 25% and league 44%), I assess BTTS - Yes as the most reasonable pick.

The xG-based model forecasts a total of approximately 3.04 goals: Levski about 1.64 (attack xG 2.05 vs conceded xG by CSKA 1.22) and CSKA about 1.40 (attack xG 1.80 vs conceded xG by Levski 1.01). Seasonal metrics confirm a scoring tendency — Levski has 67% of matches with over 1.5 goals, CSKA 63%, and Over 0.5 stands at 89% for the home side and 100% for the away side, which pushes the probability of Over 1.5 to around 81%. Levski averages 16.28 shots (5.22 on target), CSKA 14.5 (4.0), with shot conversion rates of 10% vs 8%, which further supports a goal-scoring scenario; therefore Over 2.5 also has a moderate probability (~59%) despite seasonal rates of 39%/25%. Over 3.5 looks less likely — seasonal shares of 28% and 13% and the xG model give it about a 36% chance, so I recommend the safest option: Over 1.5.

Levski are the favorites: they average 1.61 goals per game versus 1.13 for CSKA, and their xG is 2.05 compared to 1.80 for the opponents, indicating an advantage in chance creation. The hosts led at the break in 8 matches (44%) and average 0.67 goals by half-time, while CSKA led in 5 matches (31%) with 0.50 goals by half-time, so the most likely scenario is Levski holding the lead after 45 minutes. In the second half Levski average 0.94 goals and win 56% of second halves, whereas CSKA average 0.63 goals and win 44% of second halves, which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead and converting it into a victory; hence a 35% allocation to 1/1. Draws and comebacks are assessed lower (e.g. X/X 10%, 2/2 10%) due to the hosts' superior finishing (shot conversion 10% vs 8% for the visitors) and higher xG, therefore scenarios with CSKA leading at the break receive smaller shares.