Liepāja vs Riga: match statistics

Riga sit 2nd and have suffered just 1 defeat in 26 matches all season, while Liepāja have lost 12 of their 27 games. The visitors also look very strong away from home: they win 67% of their matches, score an average of 3.00 goals and concede 1.08, while Liepāja score 1.92 goals at home. Riga’s attacking advantage is evident in the quality of the chances they create, with an average away xG of 1.90 compared with Liepāja’s 1.47 at home, as well as in shots on target: 6.67 versus 5.25 per match. Riga control possession more often, averaging 61% compared with the hosts’ 51%, and fail to score in just 8% of away matches, while Liepāja keep a clean sheet in only 17% of home games. Although the last five meetings between the two sides have not produced clear dominance, Riga’s away record and significantly greater consistency throughout the season point towards an away win.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as both Liepāja and Riga recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, compared with the league average of 55%. During this period, Liepāja averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Riga scored 2.2 and allowed opponents 1.4 goals. Their attacking potential is confirmed by the xG figures from their last five appearances: 1.62 for the hosts and 1.84 for the visitors, with opponents allowed 1.32 and 1.60 xG respectively. Riga failed to score in only 8% of their matches this season, while Liepāja average 3.07 goals in their games, although they keep a clean sheet in 50% of them. Riga’s higher seasonal BTTS rate, at 67% compared with Liepāja’s 50%, along with the current defensive form of both sides, supports a scenario in which each team finds the net.

Both teams regularly feature in matches with at least two goals: this outcome occurred in 93% of Liepāja’s games and 92% of Riga’s matches. Their attacking potential is supported by average xG figures of 2.13 for the hosts and 1.90 for the visitors, along with 6.21 and 6.67 shots on target per match, respectively. In their last five appearances, Liepāja conceded an average of 1.6 goals, while Riga conceded 1.4, and both teams recorded Both Teams To Score in 80% of those matches. Riga scored 11 goals during this period, while Liepāja conceded 8, further strengthening the outlook for at least two goals. Over 1.5 goals is the strongest selection, combining very high historical consistency with current chance-creation metrics and the recent defensive weaknesses of both teams.

Liepāja has an excellent season record: they win 86% of their matches, score an average of 3.07 goals, and concede just 0.79, while Riga win 67% of their games and allow an average of 1.08 goals. The hosts have held a lead at the break in 71% of their appearances, have not lost a single match this season, and post an average xG of 2.13 while conceding just 0.89 xG at their own end. Riga also start matches aggressively, leading at half-time in 67% of cases, but their recent form has been steadier than Liepāja’s: 1.6 points per game across their last five matches compared with 1.2 for their opponents. Nevertheless, the hosts’ stronger season-long record, higher average number of scoring chances, and 50% clean-sheet rate primarily point towards them maintaining their lead from half-time to full-time. The 1/1 scenario is therefore the strongest, although Riga’s current form increases the likelihood of a draw or a turnaround in their favor after the break.