Livingston vs Hearts: match statistics

The favorites are the visitors — Hearts sit 1st in the table and average 1.6 goals scored and only 1.07 conceded away, while Livingston at home average 1.27 scored and 1.87 conceded per game. Hearts create more chances: on the road they average 13.2 shots and 4.67 on target versus the hosts' 10.07 and 3.73, and the superiority in chance quality is confirmed by higher xG — 1.53 vs 1.23. Form also favors the visitors: Livingston have 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss in their last 5 (0.8 points per game), whereas Hearts have 3 wins in their last 5 (1.8 points per game). The percentage differences are significant — only 7% wins for Livingston at home and 0% clean sheets, versus 53% wins and 40% clean sheets for Hearts away; home goal difference is −9 for Livingston compared to +8 for Hearts on the road. Considering better finishing (1.6 vs 1.27), higher xG (1.53 vs 1.23) and more consistent form and defense from the visitors, I predict a Hearts win.

Seasonal indicators favor No BTTS: Livingston at home have only 38% of matches with both teams scoring and keep a clean sheet in 63% of games, conceding on average 0.56 goals per match. Hearts away register 40% BTTS with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game, giving them a moderate scoring threat but not a dominant one. In the last 5 matches the hosts had BTTS in 60% of fixtures, while Hearts only in 20%; Livingston conceded 7 goals (1.4 avg) and had xG against of 2.24, which raises the short-term risk of goals. xG indicates both teams create chances (Livingston xG_for 1.76 vs Hearts xG_for_away 1.53), so there is potential for goals from both sides. Nevertheless, considering the hosts’ long-term profile (63% clean sheets, seasonal BTTS 38% vs league average 50%), the No BTTS scenario is stronger and I therefore rate its probability higher.

Livingston averages 1.81 goals at home with xG 1.76, while Hearts average 1.60 goals away with xG 1.53. Combining the home xG 1.76 with the visitors’ xG-against 1.32 yields ~1.54 expected goals for Livingston, and combining the visitors’ xG 1.53 with the home xG-against 0.96 yields ~1.25 for Hearts; the total is 2.79 goals. This is above the league average of 2.66 and the Poisson model translates it into roughly a 77% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~53% for 3+ goals (Over 2.5) and ~31% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5). Note that Livingston have a high home clean sheet rate of 63% and the both teams to score rates are 38% for hosts and 40% for guests, which reduces the probability of very high scores but does not negate the signal for Over 1.5. In light of the expected 2.79 goals and seasonal Over 1.5 rates (63% home, 67% away), the strongest and most likely pick is Over 1.5.

The hosts hold a clear advantage: they win 75% of home matches and score an average of 1.81 goals per game versus 1.60 for the visitors, with an xG of 1.76 compared to Hearts’ 1.53. At half-time Livingston leads in 44% of matches and draws in 44%, with the hosts averaging 0.75 goals by the break and conceding only 0.25, while the visitors concede 0.67 on average before half-time. In the second half the hosts’ superiority persists: they score 1.06 goals after the break on average versus 0.87 for Hearts and concede 0.31 in the second half versus 0.40 for the visitors, increasing the likelihood of maintaining or extending a lead. Additionally, the hosts keep a clean sheet in 63% of season matches versus 40% for the visitors, and average 1.75 points at half-time compared to 1.47 for opponents, indicating control from the outset. Considering the 44% chance of a lead at the break, 75% home win rate and the xG and post-break goal advantage, the most likely scenario is 1/1 (hosts leading at half-time and winning Full-Time).