Londrina vs Athletic Club: match statistics

I predict an Athletic Club victory. The visitors average 1.5 goals away with a shot conversion rate of 20%, while Londrina scores 1.17 goals at home with only 9% conversion. Although Londrina attempts more shots (12.67 vs 7.33) and has a higher home xG (1.38 vs 0.82), their real efficiency is lower — 1.17 goals from xG 1.38 indicates wasted chances. Defensively Athletic concedes 1.33 goals on the road, while Londrina concedes 1.67 at home (22 conceded this season); additionally Athletic has 0% clean sheets away versus Londrina’s 33% FTS. In the last 5 matches Londrina are 2 wins and 3 losses (PPG 1.2), and Athletic 2 wins and 3 draws without defeat (PPG 1.8), which together with the superiority in efficiency favors the visitors.

The strongest signal for BTTS is Athletic: 100% of matches this season with both teams scoring and 80% in the last 5 matches with 0% clean sheets, which strongly indicates Athletic both concedes and scores. Londrina has a seasonal BTTS of 57% (only 40% in the last 5) and in those 5 matches scored 7 and conceded 8 goals (avg. 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded), and across the season has conceded 22 goals, so the hosts are also prone to conceding. Chance-creation analysis shows Londrina averages 12.86 shots and 3.86 on target with xG 1.37 per match, while Athletic averages 7.33 shots and 2.67 on target with xG 0.82; however Athletic converts as much as 20% of chances versus Londrina’s 7%, increasing their efficiency despite fewer shots. Considering the league BTTS average of 51% and the combination: Athletic 100% + Londrina 57% and recent runs (Londrina conceded 8 in the last 5, Athletic 4), I predict a high probability of both teams to score and back BTTS - Yes.

Seasonal stats show Athletic’s matches ended Over 1.5 goals in 100% of cases, and Londrina’s in 57%, which alone is a strong signal for Over 1.5. An xG-based model predicts 1.72 goals for Londrina and 1.06 for Athletic (total 2.78): the calculation considers Londrina’s offensive xG 1.37 and xG conceded vs Athletic 2.06 (average ~1.72), and similarly Athletic’s offensive xG 0.82 vs xG conceded to Londrina 1.30 (average ~1.06). Although Londrina’s seasonal scoring is only 0.86 goals with a low shot conversion of 7%, in the last 5 matches they average 1.35 xG and 1.4 goals, while Athletic has a high conversion rate of 20% and 0% clean sheets, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides (both teams scored in matches: Athletic 100%, Londrina 57%). For these reasons I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (I rate Over 1.5 at 88%); Over 2.5 is moderately likely (58%) given the expected 2.78 goals, and I rate Over 3.5 low (15%) due to 0% Over 3.5 for Londrina and only 17% for Athletic.

The strongest half-time signal is a draw: the home side were level at the break in 43% of matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 43.0), and the away side in 50% (drawingAtHTPercentage_away = 50.0), so a draw at half-time is clearly likely. The full-time result also has a strong draw component — the home team recorded draws in 57% of their matches (drawPercentage_home = 57.0), and the visitors drew in 50% away (drawPercentage_away = 50.0), which increases the probability of X/X. Quality-of-chances stats show Londrina creates more (xG 1.37 vs 0.82, on average 12.86 vs 7.33 shots), but has a low conversion rate (7% versus Athletic’s 20%), which favors a scenario where many chances do not translate into a home win. At the same time Athletic often scores in the second half (scored_2hg_avg_away = 1.0 and over05_2hg_percentage_away = 100.0), so an alternative is X/2, however the strongest and most consistent scenario from the data remains draw at half-time and draw at full-time (X/X).