Londrina vs Juventude: match statistics

Juventude top the table, having won 13 of 24 matches and conceded just 13 goals all season, while Londrina sit 18th with a record of 5 wins, 6 draws and 13 defeats. Recent form also clearly favors the visitors: they have collected 10 points from their last five matches, winning three times and conceding only 2 goals, whereas Londrina have managed just 1 point and scored 3 goals. The hosts do create more quality chances at home, with an average xG of 1.54 compared with Juventude’s 1.14 away from home, but they fail to score in as many as 36% of their home matches. This could be a closely contested encounter, as Juventude average only 0.82 goals away from home and draw 27% of such matches, but their significantly stronger defense and superior current form give the visitors a better chance of securing the win.

The strongest signal is Londrina’s very low seasonal rate of matches featuring goals from both teams, at just 8% compared with the league average of 48%. Londrina keeps a clean sheet in 85% of its matches, while Juventude scores an average of just 0.82 goals away from home and has scored 4 goals in total across its last five matches, or 0.8 per game. The visitors are also solid defensively, recording 55% clean sheets and conceding just 2 goals in their last five appearances, which also limits the hosts’ attacking prospects. Although Londrina conceded an average of 1.8 goals in its last five matches, Juventude has recorded BTTS - Yes in only 20% of that run. Therefore, the more likely outcome is BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team will fail to score.

The season profiles of both teams clearly point towards a low-scoring game: 77% of Londrina’s matches and 73% of Juventude’s ended with fewer than 2.5 goals. The signal is even stronger for the 3.5 line, as Londrina have not played a single match featuring at least four goals, while Juventude have exceeded this mark in only 9% of their games. At home, Londrina concede an average of just 0.15 goals and keep a clean sheet in 85% of their appearances, significantly limiting the visitors’ attacking potential, with Juventude averaging 0.82 goals scored. The hosts do create 1.54 xG per match, but Juventude concede only 1.00 goal on average, while their last five matches produced just 2 goals conceded. Londrina’s weaker recent defensive record, with 9 goals conceded in five matches, raises the projection to 1.95 goals, but still leaves a clear preference for Under 3.5 goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time and a Juventude win at full-time, as the visitors were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches, while Londrina did not lead at half-time in any of them. Juventude conceded just 0.2 goals per match before the break in this sequence, compared with Londrina’s 1.4, although the visitors themselves failed to score in the first half, reinforcing the prospect of a cautious opening. After the interval, Juventude have shown better current form: they average 0.8 goals and have a 60% win rate across their last five matches, compared with Londrina’s 0% win rate. The overall form picture also favors the visitors, who won 60% of their last five matches and conceded 0.4 goals per game, while Londrina lost 80% and allowed opponents to score 1.8 goals per match.