Ludogorets vs CSKA Sofia: match statistics

Ludogorets holds a clear advantage in home metrics: they average 1.76 goals per home match, 65% possession, 18 shots and 6.24 shots on target, with home xG of 2.22. CSKA Sofia on the road scores 1.06 goals on average, records 14.06 shots with 3.82 on target and has xG 1.76, indicating lower quality of created chances. Defensively the hosts also perform better — Ludogorets concedes 0.71 goals at home with 0.93 xG against, while CSKA concedes 0.94 goals away with 1.24 xG against. Additionally, the hosts fail to score in only 12% of home matches, have 53% home wins and a home goal difference of +18, whereas CSKA has 41% away wins and 35% of away matches without scoring. Despite CSKA’s better recent form over the last 5 matches overall (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss and 1.6 points on average vs 1.0 point for Ludogorets), the superiority in xG, shots on target and possession favors a home victory.

I predict BTTS - No with ~70% probability vs 30% for Yes, due to dominant defensive signals and poor goal-scoring form recently. Ludogorets averages 1.61 goals scored and concedes 0.72 per match this season, while CSKA Sofia averages 1.06 scored and 0.94 conceded, so it’s unlikely both sides will regularly score. Although Ludogorets’ season BTTS is 56%, their last 5 matches show only 20% BTTS, whereas CSKA has a season BTTS of 24% and 41% clean sheets, which together reduce the chance of both teams scoring. Additionally, 69% of league matches finish with at least one clean sheet, and the last 5 fixtures show low goal output: Ludogorets 2 goals in 5 matches (0.4 avg) and CSKA 4 goals in 5 matches (0.8), so a one-team-on-the-scoreboard scenario is more probable. Even though home xG is 2.06 vs 1.76 for CSKA and Ludogorets averages 5.22 shots on target vs 3.82 for CSKA, these metrics do not offset low finishing efficiency and high clean-sheet rates, hence the No selection.

Ludogorets scores an average of 1.61 goals at home with an xG of 2.06, while CSKA Sofia scores 1.06 goals away with an xG of 1.76; combined seasonal goals average is 2.67. After balancing attack and defense (Ludogorets concedes 0.72 goals at home on average, CSKA 0.94 away) and accounting for shot conversion (16.5 shots and 10% conversion for the home side vs 14.06 and 8% for the visitors) I estimate about 1.45 goals for the home team and about 0.90 goals for the away team, i.e. roughly 2.35 goals total. This translates to an approximate probability of Over 1.5 around 68% (consistent with seasonal Over15 67%/65%), Over 2.5 around 42% (seasonal Over25 39%/24% confirm a lower chance) and Over 3.5 only about 21% (seasonal Over35 28%/12%). Additionally, the last 5 matches show a drop in form for the home team (2 goals in the last 5, i.e. 0.4 average) while CSKA has 4 goals in 5 matches (0.8 average), which slightly lowers the expected goal total and reinforces selecting Over 1.5 as the safest option.

Statistics clearly favor Ludogorets: as hosts they score an average of 1.61 goals per match compared to 1.06 scored by CSKA, and the hosts’ xG is 2.06 versus 1.76 for the visitors. At half-time the hosts led in 44% of their home matches, while CSKA were trailing at the break in 24% of their away matches; on average in the first half the hosts score 0.67 goals vs 0.47 by CSKA, indicating a home advantage in the first half. In the second half Ludogorets score an average of 0.94 goals and concede 0.33 (second-half wins 56%), whereas CSKA concede on average 0.53 goals in away second halves, which reduces the visitors’ chances of a turnaround. Therefore the strongest scenario is a lead at the break for the hosts and a host victory at full-time (1/1); I rate this scenario highest in the distribution. Turnaround variants after half-time are less likely, because the xG gap (2.06 vs 1.76) and the hosts’ second-half advantage (+0.61 goals on average) favor Ludogorets maintaining or extending their lead.